6-2-15

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | BALTIMORE at HOUSTON
Play Against - Home favorites with a money line of -125 to -175 (HOUSTON) below average AL hitting team (AVG <=.265) against a team with a good bullpen (ERA <=3.75), with a good bullpen that converts on 75%+ of their save opportunities
126-112 over the last 5 seasons. ( 52.9% | 58.4 units )
8-11 this year. ( 42.1% | -0.4 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MINNESOTA at BOSTON
MINNESOTA is 19-10 (+13.1 Units) against the money line vs. AL teams scoring 4.7 or less runs/game on the season this season.
The average score was: MINNESOTA (4.9) , OPPONENT (3.8)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty was rained out with the Red Sox on Monday and likes the Red Sox on Tuesday.

The deficit is 477 sirignanos.

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Bookieshunter

1* Braves

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Dave Cokin

2* Mariners -105 (Sabathia/Montgomery)
Another first time starter in action here as Mike Montgomery finally makes his debut. Very highly regarded at one time, injuries and command issues caused his stock to decline considerably. But Montgomery has done well this year at Tacoma, so maybe changing organizations and getting a new perspective has turned the trick. Walks will be the key, as he has to throw strikes to have a chance. No problems trying to beat CC, who just isn't getting it done, plus the Mariners are a better offense vs. lefties than righties. Yankees have a clear late inning edge, so considered this as a F5 play. But CC has had sixth and seventh inning issues, so don't want to lose those possible scoring opportunities for the hosts. Been doing well backing debuting starting pitchers, so let's give Montgomery and the Mariners a try here.

Free Play Rays -115 (Archer/Wilson)
Angels are hot with five wins in a row, but I want to play Archer, who's pitching great baseball for the Rays. If he's got his stuff, the fastball/slider combo right now is as good as it gets. Would assume no Street tonight for Halos as he's worked three straight games. Smith has as well but one of those was a two-pitch quickie, so he's likely the late guy for them tonight. But without Street, the Rays have the better pen of necessary. Wilson is a tough guy to 'cap, because when he throws strikes he can be tough. But last couple starts have seen Wilson back to nibbling and that inflates his pitch count, which means he's toast by the sixth inning. I made Archer -135 here, so no problem with the price and I'm taking the Rays

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SIMON CERBONE (Soccer)

GERMANY – 2ND BUNDESLIGA – (OVER 2 -130) HOLSTEIN KIEL @ TSV 1860 MÜNCHEN (230PM)

POLAND – EKSTRAKLASA – (OVER 2.5 -110) KORONA KIELCE @ GKS BELCHATOW (230PM)

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Brandon Lang

20 Dimes - Philadelphia Phillies +147 at home over the Cincinnati Reds, 7:05 PM EST. List pitchers Johnny Cueto and Sean O'Sullivan.

[golden contender]

GC: MLB Play

Tuesday card has a 6* Dominator system and a big Blowout system. Monday card sweeps. Free MLB totals system below Cleveland vs KC.


On Tuesday the free MLB Play is on the under 8 runs in the Cleveland at KC Game. Rotation numbers 973/974 at 8:10 eastern. KC has struggled at the plate the last week hitting .204. Things wont get easier tonight against C. Carrasco. The Indians have stayed under the posted total 70% on the road when the total is 8 to 8.5 and 7 of 10 times as a road favorite from -100 to -125. The Indians fit a nice totals system that cashes around 80% of the time since 2004 and goes under for road favorites off a road dog win that scored 5 or more runs, vs an opponent off a road favored loss that scored 2 or less runs on 4 or less hits. Both teams have excellent bullpens. Look for these two to stay under 8 runs. On Tuesday the lead play is a rare 6* Side and a Big Blowout system that wins by over 3 runs. There is also a Powerful 5* totals system. Jump on now and cash out as We start the month big in bases. For the free play. Take the Under 8 runs in the Cleveland at KC game. GC

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JEFF BARONE
(MLB) LA ANGELS +108 TB (10PM)
The Angels at home as a DOG Im on it. Wilson (3-3, 3.18) He's 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA in his past four home starts and is 11-2 with a 3.42 mark over his last 19. They are facing a tough pitcher in Archer but the Angels bats are the difference.

GOODFELLAS
(MLB) BALTIMORE +128 HOUSTON (8pm)
Rookie Baltimore starter Wright (2-0, 1.40 ERA) will look to continue the impressive start to his career. He began it with consecutive scoreless outings totaling 14 1/3 innings before allowing three runs over five innings. He will oppose McCough (5-2, 4.24), who has stumbled to a 5.84 ERA and a 1-2 record in his last four, though, after surrendering four runs in six innings.

SYDNEY ST GEORGE
(MLB) MINNESOTA/BOSTON OVER 8 +100 (7PM)
Both teams have struggled to score. Pelfry and Bucholz square off again Tuesday night at Fenway Park after the opener of this four-game set was postponed. Both pitchers have received little runs to work with. Boston is losers 7 out of 8 will head back home and look to break out. Total seems alittle low here. Minnesota is suprising everyone and Clay Buchloz can get hit.
(MLB) CHICAGO -112 TEXAS (8PM)
I am backing the better pitcher. Jeff Samardzija (4-2, 3.84), went 3-0 with a 3.00 ERA in five starts in May, yielding an unearned run in seven innings in Wednesday's 5-3, 10-inning win at Toronto. His opponent Lewis (4-3, 4.70 ERA) has an 11.93 ERA over his last three outings after surrendering 10 runs over 2 2/3 innings in Wednesday's 12-3 loss at Cleveland.

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Mike Davis MLB

3-Unit Play. Take #966 Detroit -135 over Oakland (Tuesday, June 2nd at 7:05 p.m.)

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Indian Cowboy

3* Play on Tampa Bay

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Exterminator Betting System

Unofficial Bet Boston (A)

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JOE GAVAZZI

2* Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) at Boston Red Sox (Buchholz) 7:10 ET

Minnesota travels to Boston following a 5-1 home stand in which they swept these Red Sox by a combined score of 15-7 at the start of last week. The Red Sox’ slide continues as they return home from a 7-game road trip in which they went 1-6. Clearly, these teams are headed opposite directions, providing us with huge value at this underdog price.

At 22-29, the Red Sox can be considered as one of MLB’s biggest underachieving teams. This peripatetic team has gone from 69 wins in 2012 to 97 wins in 2013 to 71 wins in 2014. With the addition of Ramirez and Sandoval to compliment the expectations of the starting staff, the Red Sox were projected with a winning record and division crown. The slide is for real with a. 685 batting OPS and .744 pitching OPS. That is a combined 59 points below the league average with only the White Sox having worse numbers in the American League. Boston has now lost 19 of 29 recent games, including 3 straight at Texas this weekend when they allowed a 3-2 9th inning lead on Sunday to evaporate into a 4-3 defeat. I am well aware that today’s Boston starter, Buchholz, is on a solid roll lasting 7 1/3 IP or more in each of his previous 3 starts for a 1.99 ERA. That includes allowing a pair of runs against Minnesota, and today’s starter Pelfrey, in a 2-1 Minnesota victory last Tuesday. But for the season, the Red Sox are just 2-8 in Buchholz starts, in which he has a 2-6 record and 4.33 ERA. Results from this mound have been even more disastrous. In 4 home starts, Buchholz has worked 22 1/3 IP with a 5.24 ERA, 1.66 WHIP and a .337 BAA.

The Minnesota Twins have been this year’s over-achiever! After seasons in which the Twins had wins of 66, 66, and 70 wins, they were again projected to finish last in the AL Central. Those predictions seemed accurate when Minnesota began the year 9-12. Since that time, however, the Twins have gone 20-7, including 9-4 on the road of late. Minnesota has won 7 of 9 starts by Pelfrey, who is 4-1 with a 2.77 ERA. In his most recent 7 starts, Pelfrey has allowed 2 or fewer runs and worked 6 or more innings in 5 of the 7. The recent streak by the Twins has now lifted them into 1st place in the Central Division WITH THE BEST RECORD IN THE AMERICAN LEAGUE.

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JR. STEVENS/SMOOTH44

10* Baltimore
5* Philadelphia
5* Arizona
5* Minnesota
5* Toronto (Game #1)

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STEPHEN NOVER – MLB

2* Colorado Rockies (Game 1)
2* Atlanta Braves