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Play Los Angeles Dodgers -150 over San Diego—Top Play
Ian Kennedy has lost 21 of the last 34 games vs. division opponents and he has lost 10 of the last 15 games when pitching as an underdog of +125 to +175. Ian Kennedy has lost 27 of the last 45 night games and he has lost 25 of the last 42 games when pitching in the 1st half of the season.
Play Houston -130 over Seattle—Top Play
Collin McHugh has won 12 of the last 19 games vs. division opponents and he has won 5 of the last 7 games when pitching as a favorite of -125 to -175. Collin McHugh has won 13 of the last 23 games when the total posted is between 8 and 8.5 runs and he has an ERA of 3.87.
7-Unit Play. Take #918 Texas (-125) over Minnesota (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
These two teams are absolutely going in opposite directions. I have been fading the Twins pretty regularly lately because they are complete and total frauds. This is a team full of .250 hitters that had been playing way above its head for the first two months of the year. But they are coming back to earth here in June and right now they are running up against a red hot Texas team. The Rangers have won six of the last seven series they’ve played and they are 16-6 in their last 22 games overall. That includes a dramatic comeback win late last night that was fueled by some shoddy Minnesota defense. The Twins gave that one away and I think that game is going to linger a little bit into this afternoon. The Twins have lost four straight and they are still a little hungover from getting swept in that huge series with Kansas City this week. The Twins are turning to Mike Pelfrey to be the stopper today. That plan has never worked out well for anyone. Pinata Pelfrey is just 6-13 in his last 19 road starts and has been a train wreck on the road his entire career. He is vulnerable to the home run ball and it should be flying down in Arlington today. Pelfrey’s numbers this year are ridiculous. He has a 2.28 ERA and has four straight quality starts. But I think he is throwing way above his head. He had a 7.99 ERA I five starts last year and a 5.19 ERA in 29 starts in 2013. His last full season before that was 33 starts in 2011 and he had a 4.74 ERA. Pelfrey is not as good as his numbers indicate and he’s due to get roughed up. He’s faced four bad lineups in his last four starts and he has not been very good during the day in his career. I’m not a big Colby Lewis fan. And he’s been a wreck lately. But he is crafty and I think he can keep the momentum going for this team. Minnesota has the fourth-fewest runs in the Majors against righties and they are hitting just .239 against them. Texas’ best bats are all lefties and I think they are going to jump Pelfrey here. I’ll go with the hot team over the cold one and keep playing big against the Twins after our 6-Unit winner against them last night.
2-Unit Play. Take #907 Colorado (+130) over Miami (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #910 San Francisco (-145) over Arizona (7 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #913 L.A. Dodgers (-160) over San Diego (10 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
2-Unit Play. Take #915 Toronto (+120) at Boston (1:35 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #924 Tampa Bay (-160) over Chicago White Sox (4:10 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #926 Baltimore (-105) over N.Y. Yankees (7 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take #930 St. Louis (-140) over Kansas City (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
TODAY’S TOTALS
5-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 -110 Colorado at Miami (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
I don’t normally write-up totals because these are based on proprietary systems. But just to give you an idea on this one because it seems so random – these teams are due. Over the last seven days they are No. 10 and No. 13 in scoring the Majors and No. 6 and No. 11 in team batting. These guys are both hitting the ball. But they’ve both played ‘under’ in their last four games and have been terrible against the totals over the last two weeks. I really like David Hale. But Mat Latos is making his first start after injury. I think both starters are going to struggle and I don’t see either clearing the sixth inning. I think it will be like 3-1 around the time the starters clear out and then we’re going to have one or two crooked numbers from the sixth inning on that’s going to push this one ‘over’. I see this game finishing with around 10 runs and going the way of the Rockies.
2-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 7.5 Kansas City at St. Louis (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.0 – Washington at Milwaukee (4 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 8.5 – N.Y. Yankees at Baltimore (7 p.m., Saturday, June 13)
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