7-1-15

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Wunderdog Sports Free Pick

MLB Game: Cleveland Indians (917) @ Tampa Bay Rays (918)
Time: Wednesday 07/01 7:10 PM Eastern
Pick: Tampa Bay +125 (moneyline)

The Cleveland Indians have pounced on the Tampa Bay Rays in this series, taking the first two games to push the Rays’ losing streak to three games – something they have avoided since late May. The Rays have the pitching to avoid the long losing streaks, and I look for them to bounce back today at home behind Alex Colome. Colome’s last start vs. the Tribe resulted in one hit through seven innings with no runs allowed. He has now worked 13.1 innings against them without yielding a single run, and has held the Tribe’s lineup to a .116 average against him. Carlos Carrasco has been durable, but owns a 1-3 record vs. Tampa Bay in five career appearances against them, and Cleveland is just 1-9 in their last 10 following a win, and 5-13 behind Carrasco if he is off a quality start in his previous game. The Rays have taken it to road teams that have a winning road record at 9-3 in their last 12 against them. Take Tampa Bay.

[Rambo]

Does anyone have ATS Lock Club Baseball?
They're hitting 85% the last two weeks and swept the board last night.
If not, I'll buy it and post the picks.

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WILD BILL



MLB GOY: Phils +105 (15 units)

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ULTRA SPORTS MLB

3 units Seattle Mariners -105

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Goodfella
3* seattle +100

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J.R. STEVENS/SMOOTH44

MLB – Braves +120 (Listed Pitchers)

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bookiemonsters


POD CLE -130


MGs
HOU -120
SFG -125

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Power Play Wins

St Louis Cardinals -140 (Lackey)

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Rockdeman Sports

Blue Jays
Mariners
Orioles (RL)

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VegasButcher

Pittsburgh Pirates -101

The Tigers are now 2-7 in the last 9 games against a right-handed starter in interleague play. Can they make it 2-8 after tonight? I hope so. There hasn’t been a better pitcher against ‘righties’ this season than Burnett, whose 1.8 FIP against right-handers leads the league. Both teams had to use all of their key relievers yesterday as the game went into extra innings but once again tonight the Pirates should have a huge advantage with their BP in the final third of this game. I like their chances here.

New York Yankees -105

The key factor for me here is that the Yankees will have a huge advantage with their BP in the final 3-4 innings. LA’s two key relievers Smith and Street have pitched in four consecutive games and I don’t think I’ve ever seen a reliever go 5 straight. Shoemaker gives up a lot of HR’s (1.7 HR/9 rate) and he is really bad against lefties (5.1 FIP, ranked 140th out of 165 starters). Yankees will be a bad matchup for him as they’ll feature a ton of left-handed hitters, and their offense ranks 4th overall in ISO (measure of power). I doubt Shoemaker goes more than 6 innings tonight. On the other side we have Eovaldi whose 3.3 FIP against right-handers ranks 58th in the league. Angels are a righty-heavy lineup so I think Eovaldi should have success here. Furthermore, after getting rocked in Miami a few starts ago, he has allowed 8 hits and 4 runs in his last 12 innings of work while registering 10 K’s. Those two starts came against DET and HOU, both top-5 lineups. Angels rank 15th. I expect New York to have an overall pitching advantage in tonight’s matchup and I like their chances in this one.

Washington Nationals -127

In Wisler’s first career start he went 8 innings and gave up 1 run to the Mets. New York Mets rank 28th out of 30 teams against the ‘fastball’ and 30th out of 30 teams against the ‘slider’. In Wisler’s second career start he went 4 innings and gave up 6 runs on 9 hits (1 HR). Washington Nationals rank 4th out of 30 teams against the ‘fastball’ and 6th out of 30 teams against the ‘slider’. With Wisler being a fastball/slider pitcher, the matchup is pretty important for him as he doesn’t feature any other developed pitch in his repertoire. Facing the Nationals team for the 2nd time (by the way Harper didn’t even play in the first game) in a week doesn’t bode well for him. Fister isn’t anything special but at least he’s fairly fresh (came off DL a few starts ago) and he’s facing a terrible Atlanta lineup that is still without Freeman. I like Washington’s chances here.

San Francisco Giants -111

Miami has never seen Heston before and their 29th ranked offense against right-handers could have a really tough time here. Remember, this Miami offense ranks 29th against righties with Stanton in the lineup for most of the year, and they’re even worse without him present. By comparison, San Fran ranks 2nd offensively against righties on the season. That’s a very big discrepancy between these two offenses in tonight’s matchup, in addition to San Fran having a better starter on the mound (#27 pitcher vs #106 for Haren).

Cleveland Indians -133

Carrasco is my #11 ranked starter in the league, even though his 4.2 ERA ranks 95th on the year. His inflated 0.336 BABIP has a lot to do with that and I expect that to regress as the season goes on. He’ll be facing a Rays team that just isn’t hitting right now, ranking 28th offensively over the last week. I expect him to do well. The play though is more of a ‘fade’ of Colome. I know he had a stellar outing against the Indians on 06/21, holding them to 1 hit over 7 shut-out innings. But I’m wondering if that’s a fluke. Colome is a guy that is strictly a fastball/slider pitcher. Cleveland ranks #1 offensively against the ‘slider’. Both his fastball and slider were very effective against the Indians in that first start, but can that continue, especially since Cleveland hitters will see him again only 10 days later? In addition, Colome has been atrocious at home sporting a 1.8 HR/9 rate, 5.8 FIP, and a 6.1 ERA. He’s been a pretty poor pitcher against lefties in his career (4.7 xFIP) and you know Indians will feature plenty of lefties tonight. I expect Colome to perform much worse than he did in his first start against the Indians, and therefore think Cleveland has a strong shot to win this one.

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BOB BALFE

Brewers -110 over Phillies
Royals -105 over Astros

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THE VEGAS NIGHTMARE

CHICAGO CUBS

OVER – philadelphia

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

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HEAT MAPS

OVERS – Baltimore, Oakland, Atlanta

UNDERS – Chicago Whitesox

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Brandon Lang

30 Dime - KC Royals +110

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Chris Jordan


300* Phillies/Brewers Over