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Dave Cokin-
Cubs/Mets Under 6.5 -125
As obvious as it gets, but where are the runs going to come from here? Neither team hitting a lick right now, and two dominating pitchers on the hill. Arrieta should overpower the Mets if he his his normal stuff. As for deGrom, this guy is a machine at home and his day game stats are absurd. Since arriving in the bigs, 8-0, 1.21. I'm actually a little surprised this 6.5 is available even with juice, as I really thought it was going to be 6. I actually make the number 5.5, so while not nuts about coughing a quarter vig on a total, I'll have to do it with the Under here.
Rockies +133 (Rusin/Hellickson)
Arizona rates the favorite's role here, but not by this much. Rusin is actually a little higher ranked than Hellickson, and after a down period, the higher rated dog pitchers are starting to connect again. As for the team data, that's where the Diamondbacks derive an edge, but it's not nearly as high as this betting line indicates. I made this Arizona -120, so there's a decent amount of value with the Rockies, too much to pass up.
Twins +143 (Gibson/Young)
These were two of the more fortunate pitchers around early in the season. Young has been a little spotty lately, so whole he's also still having some good games, there has been a degree of regression over his past half dozen starts. Gibson has come on pretty nicely, and the difference between the early portion of the season and more recently has been an increasing ability to miss bats. xFIP over the past month for Gibson is a sweet 2.91. Young over the same time frame is at 5.25. Young remains amazing in his ability to generate pop flies, and I therefore discount some of his junky metrics. But there's a substantial numbers advantage here with Gibson. I made this Royals -135, so while it's clearly not a slam dunk by any means, there's enough value on the dog side to justify playing the Twins.
Figure +125 as the floor on the Rockies, and +135 the floor on the Twins.
Cubs/Mets Under 6.5 -125
As obvious as it gets, but where are the runs going to come from here? Neither team hitting a lick right now, and two dominating pitchers on the hill. Arrieta should overpower the Mets if he his his normal stuff. As for deGrom, this guy is a machine at home and his day game stats are absurd. Since arriving in the bigs, 8-0, 1.21. I'm actually a little surprised this 6.5 is available even with juice, as I really thought it was going to be 6. I actually make the number 5.5, so while not nuts about coughing a quarter vig on a total, I'll have to do it with the Under here.
Rockies +133 (Rusin/Hellickson)
Arizona rates the favorite's role here, but not by this much. Rusin is actually a little higher ranked than Hellickson, and after a down period, the higher rated dog pitchers are starting to connect again. As for the team data, that's where the Diamondbacks derive an edge, but it's not nearly as high as this betting line indicates. I made this Arizona -120, so there's a decent amount of value with the Rockies, too much to pass up.
Twins +143 (Gibson/Young)
These were two of the more fortunate pitchers around early in the season. Young has been a little spotty lately, so whole he's also still having some good games, there has been a degree of regression over his past half dozen starts. Gibson has come on pretty nicely, and the difference between the early portion of the season and more recently has been an increasing ability to miss bats. xFIP over the past month for Gibson is a sweet 2.91. Young over the same time frame is at 5.25. Young remains amazing in his ability to generate pop flies, and I therefore discount some of his junky metrics. But there's a substantial numbers advantage here with Gibson. I made this Royals -135, so while it's clearly not a slam dunk by any means, there's enough value on the dog side to justify playing the Twins.
Figure +125 as the floor on the Rockies, and +135 the floor on the Twins.
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