7-9-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SIMON SOCCER (-8.75)

UEFA Europa League, Qualification

1pm VIKINGUR GOTA @ ROSENBORG TRONDHEIM – (OVER 4 -120)

2pm DIFFERDANGE FC 03 @ BALA TOWN – (OVER 2.5 -145)

130pm FC SHIRAK GYUMRI @ ZRINJSKI MOSTAR – (UNDER 2.5 -145)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino
(-0.39* during free period)

MLB: LA Dodgers, cardinals/pirates under 7

WNBA: liberty/mystics over 142.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin | MLB Money LineThu, 07/09/15 - 2:10 PM

triple-dime bet
912 CWS (-107) Southpoint vs 911 TORAnalysis:UPGRADED TO 3* MAX

RA Dickey has been absolutely terrible for Toronto. He's currently checking in right around #180 on the starting pitcher metrics among qualifiers on innings, and that's about as bad as it gets. Even the anemic White Sox offense should do some damage here. Jeff Samardzija is starting to get it together for the White Sox, just in time to get traded to a contender. Just one homer in the last five games, and that's a distinct turna–round from some earlier long ball issues. Clearly he's up against a very dangerous attack here, but it's really a huge edge on the mound for the home team. I made this Chisox -130, so it looks like a nice value at the current page and I'll take the White Sox.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mti
5*--Pitt

[Can'tPickAWinner]

American Sports Guru

Just 1-4 yesterday -6.59 this week

2 units Yankees team total under 4 runs -105

1 unit Blue Jays/White Sox under 8 runs -105

1 unit Pirates ML -102

1 unit Reds ML +136

1 unit Braves ML -113

1 unit Angels/Mariners under 7 runs -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang


20 Dime - Pittsburgh Pirates +100

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Worlds Worst Picker

Toronto

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ALL SELECTIONS ARE INTENDED TO BE PLAYED BY PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL RISK. This means that you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll on all selections. To further clarify, you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll to win LESS on FAVORITE plays and RISK suggested percentage of bankroll play TO WIN MORE on UNDERDOG plays. In addition, all games come with listed pitchers, unless otherwise specified.

Throughout these analyses, I will refer to a series of shorthand abbreviations. In combination with the numbers that accompany them, they represent a more accurate reflection of a team or pitcher’s performance than a more traditional representation such as ERA. Below are some of those abbreviations and a brief description.

TRGS ... Team record game started (it is how we determine if we win or lose).
OPS ... A combination of on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG), a best offensive indicator.
WHIP ... Walks plus hits per innings pitched (if opposing hitters aren’t on base, they cannot score).
K/BB ... Strike to walk ratio for a pitcher (a power index for a pitcher).
BAA ... Batting average against for a pitcher.
RISP … Runners in scoring position.

I hope this clarifies some of these terms for you and makes the reading of these analyses more understandable and enjoyable. Best of luck to us all this season!

Thursday, July 9, 2015

MLB

4% LA Angels (+125)


LA Angels (Richards) at Seattle Mariners (Hernandez) (-135) 10:10 ET
The LA Angels fly to Seattle following their 3-2 late inning victory at Colorado last night for the 1^stof a 4-game weekend set against the Seattle team who lost in late innings on this field by a count of 5-4 to Detroit last night. In a matchup of hot starters, we side with the BERD (better record dog), who is on a big winning streak and an offensive roll against a Seattle team who’s .670 batting OPS is the 5^th worst in MLB.

It’s never easy to fade King Felix at a competitive price. From this mound, Seattle has won 6 of his 9 starts in which he has posted a PURE PLAY ON 0.98 home WHIP. In addition, Hernandez has a strong history against the Angels. Seattle has won 8 of his 9 recent starts against LAA, in which he has a 5-0 record with a 0.93 ERA. That includes 3 starts this year, in which Hernandez has posted a 0.90 ERA. But, Hernandez is not the only hot starter with great history in this matchup. The Angels have won 10 of 15 starts by Richards. He has done his best work in his recent outings. In 5 starts, Richards has gone 4-1 with a 2.04 ERA. His history in this matchup is every bit as good as Hernandez. In 5 starts against Seattle, Richards is 3-0 with a 0.97 ERA. In 2 matchups this year, he is 2-0 with a 1.84 ERA. Richards enters Safeco tonight having twirled 14 1/3 scoreless innings from this mound. It doesn’t get much more even than this pitching matchup.

Our edge comes by using the team with the better record, LA Angels (46-38) against an inferior Seattle team, who is 39-46. The Angels’ record of 21-20 away is clearly superior to the Seattle home mark of 18-25. But, current form clearly points out the Angels in this one! They are on a 10-2 run, scoring 46 runs in their previous 4 games. Compare that to the inferior batting OPS numbers of Seattle and the fact that they are last in MLB with a .205 BA with RISP.

In a game where the pitching matchup should be virtually even, we are eager to side with the BERD at this underdog price. The Angels are clearly the hotter team, as they have won 5 straight and have far superior offensive numbers to that of Seattle. Motivation will not be an issue for LAA, as despite their 5game winning streak, they still trail the Astros by 1.5 games in their quest for superiority in the AL West

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goldrushcapping

silver play: Mariners

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Handicapper Zone

2* Yankees Over 8.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Pauly Howard

Braves -114

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3* Over 10 Atlanta vs. Colorado

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* Chicago White Sox -115

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Raphael Esparza (VSI)

5* Pirates

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Nightmare

Seattle

Toronto under

Cleveland over