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MLB
Marlins @ Phillies
Fernandez is 2-0, 2.07 in his first two starts this season (over 1-1).
Morgan is 1-2, 4.32 in his three starts (under 2-1).
Phillies lost four of last five games with Miami; over is 4-1-2 last seven series games. Marlins are 2-11 in last 13 road games; under is 6-1-1 in their last six on road. Phillies are 4-15 in last 19 games, 2-8 in last ten at home; over is 14-3-1 in their last 18 home games.
Dodgers @ Nationals
Kershaw is 1-1, 1.57 in his last three starts; his last four stayed under.
Zimmerman is 3-0, 1.63 in his last four starts; five of his last six home starts stayed under the total.
Dodgers lost four of last six games with Washington; under is 6-4 in last ten series games. LA is 12-6 in its last 18 games, 6-2 in last eight on road,. Under is 11-3 in their last 14 road games. Nats won nine of last eleven home games; nine of their last eleven home games Sstayed under.
Cubs @ Braves
Hendricks is s 2-0, 0.00 in his last three starts (20.1 IP); eight of his last ten starts stayed under.
Teheran is 2-1, 3.33 in his last four starts; 10 of his last 12 starts went over.
Cubs lost six of last seven games with Atlanta; last three went over the total. Chicago lost three of last four games but won last three road games- under is 5-2-1 in their last eight on road. Braves won seven of last nine home games; eight of their last eleven home games stayed under.
Pirates @ Brewers
Morton is 1-1, 4.50 in his last three starts; over is 2-0-1 in his road starts.
Milwaukee won last four Fiers starts (1-0, 2.42); four of his last six went over.
Pirates won five of last seven games with Brewers; last three games stayed under the total. Pittsburgh won 10 of last 14 road games, with last four going over total. Milwaukee is 5-8 in its last 13 home games; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine home games.
Mets @ Cardinals
Syndergaard is 2-0, 2.25 in his last five starts; eight of his last 10 went under.
Lynn is 3-1, 2.27 in his last six starts; under is 7-1-1 in his last nine.
Mets-Cardinals split last ten meetings (under 7-2-1). NY is 5-2 in its last seven road games; 11 of their last 14 road games stayed under. St Louis is 5-9 in its last 14 games; under is 5-2 in their last seven home games.
Giants @ Diamondbacks
Cain is 1-1, 4.09 in his two starts (under 1-1).
Ray is 1-3, 4.62 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Giants won six of last seven games with Arizona; last five stayed under total. SF lost last seven road games; over is 20-7 in last 27 road games. D'backs won three of last four home games, won their last four home series openers. .
Rockies @ Padres
de la Rosa is 2-0, 1.88 in his last four starts; under is 5-2-1 in his last eight
Shields is 0-3, 5.65 in his last five starts; over is 14-5 in his last 19.
Colorado lost six of last eight games with San Diego; over is 4-3 in last seven series games. Rockies lost seven of last nine road games, four of last five road openers- four of their last five games stayed under. San Diego lost six of last eight home games; over is 12-4-1 in their last 17 at home.
American League
Royals @ White Sox
Young is 0-2, 4.15 in his last three starts; under is 7-4-2 in his starts. Volquez is 0-0, 5.87 in his last three starts; over is 6-0-1 in his last seven.
Samardzija is 2-0, 2.03 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-1 in his last five. Danks is 1-4, 7.49 in his last six starts; four of his last six went over.
Royals won seven of last ten games with Chicago; under is 3-0-1 in last four series games. KC is 10-6 in last 16 road games, but lost last three. White Sox won seven of last nine home games; under is 13-2 in their last 15 at home.
Mariners @ Bronx
Montgomery is 3-1, 1.88 in his last four starts; four of his last five went under
Tanaka is 1-1, 6.84 in his last four starts; all of which went over
Seattle lost last six games with Bronx, but road team won last ten series tilts, with three of last four going over total. Mariners is 12-8 in last 20 road games; they're 6-0 in game after their last six losses. Under is 7-2 in Seattle's last nine road games. Bronx won seven of last ten games; over is 11-2 in their last 13 home games.
Rays @ Blue Jays
Odorizzi is 2-1, 2.35 in his last four starts; nine of his last 10 stayed under.
Hutchison is 2-1, 6.64 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.
Tampa Bay won five of last seven games with Toronto; under is 3-1-1 in last five series games. Rays won last three games overall, but lost seven of last eight on road. Over is 11-3-1 in their last 15 games. Blue Jays are 6-11 in last 17 games; under is 8-4 in their last dozen home games.
Orioles @ Tigers
Jimenez is 4-1, 2.70 in his last six starts; over is 6-3-1 in his last ten.
Detroit won last six Sanchez starts (3-0, 4.88 in his last four); his last four starts all went over- Tigers scored 30 runs for him.
Baltimore won last three games with Detroit; three of last four series games went over total. Orioles lost 10 of last 13 games; under is 7-3-1 in last 11 road games. Tigers are 6-7 in last 13 games; over is 21-2 in their last 23, 9-0 in last nine at home.
Rangers @ Astros
Perez is making first '15 start; he is 15-13, 4.13 in 34 career starts, was 4-3, 4.38 in eight starts LY. He is 0-1, 4.56 in six AAA starts this year.
McHugh is 0-2, 5.11 in his last two starts; his last three stayed under.
Texas won seven of last nine games with Houston; eight of last ten in series stayed under total. Rangers lost 16 of last 20 games; under is 8-2-1 in last 11 road games. Astros won eight of last ten home games; five of their last seven games stayed under the total.
Twins @ A's
Santana is 0-0, 6.00 in his first two starts (over 1-1).
Gray is 2-0, 2.45 in his last three starts; over is 6-4 in his last ten.
Minnesota won four of last five games with Oakland; five of last seven series games went over total. Twins are 5-10 in last 15 road games, with last five all staying under total. A's are 6-8 in last 14 home games; under is 9-1-2 in their last dozen home games.
Red Sox @ Angels
Miley is is 1-2, 5.79 in his last four starts; five of his last seven went over.
Wilson is is 2-1, 3.37 in his last three starts; five of his last seven went under.
Boston lost five of last seven games with the Angels; five of last eight games stayed under total. Red Sox won six of last eight road games. Halos are 14-7 in last 21 home games, with last seven all staying under total.
Interleague
Indians @ Reds
Bauer is 2-0, 2.51 in his last two starts; under is 8-2-1 in his last 11.
Leake is 3-1, 3.38 in his last five starts; four of his last six stayed under.
Cleveland won last three games with Cincinnati; three of last four series tilts stayed under total. Indians won five of last seven road games; five of those seven went over. Reds lost four of last five home games.
Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Mia-Phil-- Fernandez 2-0; Morgan 1-2
LA-Wsh-- Kershaw 9-9; Zimmerman 11-7
Chi-Atl-- Hendricks 9-8; Teheran 10-8
Pitt-Mil-- Morton 7-2; Fiers 10-8
NY-StL-- Syndergaard 6-5; Lynn 9-7
SF-Az-- Cain 1-1; Ray 3-5
Col-SD-- de la Rosa 9-5; Shields 10-9
Sea-NYY-- Montgomery 4-4; Tanaka 8-3
TB-Tor-- Odorizzi 7-6; Hutchison 11-7
Balt-Det-- Jimenez 9-8; Sanchez 9-9
KC-Chi-- Young 8-5 Volquez 13-5; Danks 7-9 Samardzija 9-9
Tex-Hst-- Perez 0-0; McHugh 11-7
Minn-A's-- Santana 1-1; Gray 11-7
Bos-LAA-- Miley 10-8; Wilson 9-9
Clev-Cin-- Bauer 9-8; Leake 8-10
Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Mia-Phil-- Fernandez 1-2; Morgan 0-3
LA-Wsh-- Kershaw 4-18; Zimmerman 7-18
Chi-Atl-- Hendricks 2-17; Teheran 7-18
Pitt-Mil-- Morton 5-9; Fiers 1-18
NY-StL-- Syndergaard 3-11; Lynn 5-16
SF-Az-- Cain 0-2; Ray 2-8
Col-SD-- de la Rosa 4-14; Shields 4-19
Sea-NYY-- Montgomery 1-8; Tanaka 3-11
TB-Tor-- Odorizzi 3-13; Hutchison 7-18
Balt-Det-- Jimenez 2-17; Sanchez 4-18
KC-Chi-- Young 1-13 Volquez 13-5; Danks 6-16 Samardzija 9-18
Tex-Hst-- Perez 0-0; McHugh 6-18
Minn-A's-- Santana 0-2; Gray 2-18
Bos-LAA-- Miley 4-18; Wilson 4-18
Clev-Cin-- Bauer 3-17; Leake 4-18 -
StatFox Super Situations
WNBA | CHICAGO at MINNESOTA
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after allowing 75 points or more
117-64 since 1997. ( 64.6% | 46.6 units )
4-2 this year. ( 66.7% | 1.8 units )
WNBA | INDIANA at WASHINGTON
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (WASHINGTON) revenging a same season loss versus opponent, off a loss against a division rival
268-103 since 1997. ( 72.2% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
WNBA | INDIANA at WASHINGTON
Play Under - Home teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 off a road loss, in July games
133-74 since 1997. ( 64.3% | 51.6 units )
4-4 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.4 units )Comment
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StatFox Super Situations
MLB | KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (KANSAS CITY) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
253-175 since 1997. ( 59.1% | 84.0 units )
16-13 this year. ( 55.2% | 3.0 units )
StatFox Situational Power Trends
MLB | KANSAS CITY at CHI WHITE SOX
KANSAS CITY is 16-5 (+13.9 Units) against the money line in Road games when playing on Friday over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.3) , OPPONENT (3.0)Comment
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Hondo
Hondo is a Chi guy
Hondo tried some CFL action on Thursday night and paid price as he was unable to claw his way to a victory with the Hamilton Ti-Cats, which elevated his accounts payable to 1,960 hundleys.
Friday night: Mr. Aitch believes Hendricks is experienced enough to shut down Los Bravos — 10 units on the Cubs.Comment
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LCM Sports: A's under the totalComment
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Arthur Ralph Sports
Super Pick Miami w/Fernandez -160
Bule Ribbon Rockies w/ De La Rosa +130
Free Play Tampa w/Ordorizzi +125Comment
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Vegas Winning Crew
Saint Louis Cardinals -132Comment
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Frank Patron
10,000 Unit MLB Move
Detroit Tigers -125 over Baltimore
Listed PitchersComment
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Gavazzi
PLEASE REMEMBER THAT ALL SELECTIONS ARE INTENDED TO BE PLAYED BY PERCENTAGE OF BANKROLL RISK. This means that you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll on all selections. To further clarify, you RISK the suggested percentage of bankroll to win LESS on FAVORITE plays and RISK suggested percentage of bankroll play TO WIN MORE on UNDERDOG plays. In addition, all games come with listed pitchers, unless otherwise specified.
Throughout these analyses, I will refer to a series of shorthand abbreviations. In combination with the numbers that accompany them, they represent a more accurate reflection of a team or pitcher’s performance than a more traditional representation such as ERA. Below are some of those abbreviations and a brief description.
TRGS ... Team record game started (it is how we determine if we win or lose).
OPS ... A combination of on base percentage (OBP) and slugging percentage (SLG), a best offensive indicator.
WHIP ... Walks plus hits per innings pitched (if opposing hitters aren’t on base, they cannot score).
K/BB ... Strike to walk ratio for a pitcher (a power index for a pitcher).
BAA ... Batting average against for a pitcher.
RISP … Runners in scoring position.
I hope this clarifies some of these terms for you and makes the reading of these analyses more understandable and enjoyable. Best of luck to us all this season!
Friday, July 17, 2015
MLB
5% Pittsburgh Pirates (+110)
4% KC Royals (-1 ½ R/+140)
3% Washington Nationals (-115)
3% San Francisco Giants (+110)
3% LA Angels (-130)
Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) at Milwaukee Brewers (Fiers) (-120) 8:10 ET
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Milwaukee Brewers for the first of this 3-game weekend set to begin the 2nd half of the season. This concept is really quite simple … we are playing the Pittsburgh Pirates as a BERD (better record dog) against an also ran Milwaukee team. It is not often in the 2nd half of the season, that you will find a team whose record is 16 games superior to their opponent in the role of an underdog. That is especially true, when we are looking at our PLAY ON team as being quite motivated despite having the best record in baseball over the previous 48 games, and our PLAY AGAINST team having the worst home record in all of MLB.
In 2014, Milwaukee played .600 baseball through June to put themselves in contention for a rare playoff spot. They faded in the 2nd half of the season, which resulted in 82 victories, but no playoff berth. This season, they confirmed their demise with an 18-36 start. Though they have gone 20-16 since, the 38-52 mark is the 3rd worst in MLB. Most disappointing is a 16-28 home record, which is the WORST IN MLB. Fiers has shown occasional brilliance for the Brewers. But, he comes off a 6 IP stint in which he allowed 4 runs to Atlanta in his most recent outing. More disturbing is a record of 2-4 with a 6.12 ERA vs. the Pirates in 8 games. It’s hard to believe that the Brewers and Fiers have been installed as a home favorite against a surging Pirates team.
In mid-May, the Pirates stood 18-22, one of the biggest underachievers in MLB. But, they flashed a BUY sign on our OPS Ratings chart, mostly based on their MLB best .645 pitching OPS. The result has been lightening in a bottle for Buc backers. The Pirates, behind a red-hot McCutcheon, have gone 35-13 (MLB best) since the nadir of their discontent, including a recent run of 13-3 and a 3-game weekend sweep of St. Louis to pull within 2 ½ games of the Cards for the NL Central lead. But, that position leaves them hungry in this series. Earlier this year, Morton worked 7 1/3 IP, allowing just 3 hits in a 2-0 victory over Milwaukee. Although his current form leaves much to be desired, he is a viable option at the bottom of the Pirates’ rotation.
The Pirates are 16 games better than Milwaukee and in no way deserve this underdog status. Must back them in this role against the worst home team in MLB!
KC Royals (C. Young) (-1 ½ /+140) at Chicago White Sox (Danks) 8:10 ET
This is Game 2 of a scheduled double header between the Royals and White Sox, as they begin a 4-game weekend set to start the 2nd half of the season. The Royals enter the break with a 52-34 record, good for a .605 winning percentage (the best in the AL) and good for a 4 ½ game lead over Minnesota in the AL Central. The White Sox are mired at the bottom of the AL Central with a 41-45 mark. When you read the run line numbers at the end of this analysis, you will understand why we are eager to turn this into a classic 2nd half of the season Run Line Dog play!
In today’s article entitled “OPS Index BUY and SELL Ratings at the 2015 All Star Break,” you will note that CWS is clearly a SELL team. The White Sox have the worst batting numbers in all of baseball with a .649 OPS, which includes a meager 60 HR. As such, they are destined to fall from their current 41-45 record, as they will shortly plummet to the depths of the AL. Every dog has its day in MLB (26 of 30 teams are playing between .422 and .567 ball). Such is the case with the White Sox, whose 1.59 ERA (the last 12 games) has led to a recent 9-3 surge. No thanks, however, to Danks. For the year, the lefthander is 4-8 with a 5.30 ERA. That includes his most recent outing against Toronto in which he was blasted for 6 runs on 8 hits in 4 1/3 IP. CWS and Danks are a PURE PLAY AGAINST in this position.
Despite a couple of weeklong dips, the Royals have played the most consistent and best baseball in the American League. In a year in which scoring barely exceeds 8 RPG, the KC Royals’ version of small ball fits perfectly. There have already been runs of 28-14, 14-5 and 7-1 (currently) this season. It is greatly aided by a bullpen with a 2.11 ERA. There are solid numbers across the board with top ten OPS rankings in both hitting and pitching. It’s not a bad thing that C. Young is taking the mound. Young has a very consistent 3.00 ERA for the YTD.
This contest has all the makings of a Run Line Massacre! First of all, consider that only 18 of the Royals’ 86 games have been decided by a single run. Then know that 41 of their 52 wins (that is 79%) have come by 2 or more runs. Even better is the fact that 18 of their 22 road wins (that’s 82%) have come by 2 or more runs. With CWS scheduled for an early 2nd half demise and Danks, a PURE PLAY AGAINST starter, we gladly line up with the Royals at this value price as Run Line Underdog.
LA Dodgers (Bolsinger) at Washington Nationals (Zimmermann) (-115) 7:05 ET
Each of these teams currently leads their division and is most certainly headed for the playoffs. This matchup, however, has a decided home/road dichotomy flavor, which favors the Nationals. Consider that today’s Washington starter, Zimmermann, has pitched 19 of 20 quality starts from this mound of late, while LAD, Bolsinger, is winless in his last 10 road starts.
San Francisco Giants (Cain) at Arizona Diamondbacks (Ray) (-120) 9:40 ET
The D’backs have been struggling to get over the .500 mark all season, going just 1-13 in their efforts to reach .500. After reaching that plateau last week, the D’backs lost 3 straight games, totaling 7 runs with a .174 BA. Not a team we are interested in as chalk. The Giants have had their struggles on the road of late. After a 21-14 road start, the Giants have gone 0-7 away, averaging just 2.7 RPG with a 6.43 ERA. But, the defending champs played with nice momentum last week, going 4-1, following a 13-23 slide. Cain pitched a nice return to form game in a 3-0 win vs. the Mets last week, allowing just 2 runs with 7 Ks in 6 IP. That figures to continue against Arizona, against whom he has a 2.79 ERA in 5 starts.
Boston Red Sox (Miley) at LA Angels (Wilson) (-130) 10:05 ET
The Red Sox turned it around a bit before the break, as they enter the 2nd half of the season on a 15-10 surge, after a 27-37 start. But, Miley with a 4.80 ERA has been highly inconsistent. In his last outing, he allowed 6 runs in 5 1/3 IP of an 8-6 loss to NYY. Angels enter the 2nd half of the season as a division leader, courtesy of a 12-4 pre-break run. Look for that to continue behind Wilson, who in 11 starts against Boston has gone 6-3 with a 2.94 ERA.Comment
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Godfatherlocks (3,5,10)
5 KC royalsComment
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Alatex
20* - WashingtonComment
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EZWINNERS
2* Giants +110
2* Rockies +140
2* Mariners +154
2* Astros -151
2* Reds -108Comment
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Paul Leiner
100* Cubs -125
100* Red Sox / Angels Over 8Comment
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SoccerVipPicks
Super Vip Pick
Ireland Premier League
Derry City - Limerick
Over 2.5
1.90Comment
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