7-21-15

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | ATLANTA at CHICAGO
Play On - Road underdogs (ATLANTA) after 2 straight games where both teams scored 70 points or more against opponent after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more
49-20 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.0% | 27.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.1 units )

WNBA | PHOENIX at LOS ANGELES
Play Against - Road teams vs. the money line (PHOENIX) cold team - failing to cover 6 or 7 of their last 8 against the spread, winning between 51% and 60% of their games on the season
31-7 since 1997. ( 81.6% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | WASHINGTON at TULSA
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points after playing a home game
445-288 since 1997. ( 60.7% | 128.2 units )
9-9 this year. ( 50.0% | -0.9 units )

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MLB

National League

Mets @ Nationals
Harvey is 2-2, 1.99 in his last five starts; four of those five stayed under.

Gonzalez is 2-0, 0.90 in his last three starts; three of his last four home starts stayed under the total.

Mets are 4-6 in last ten games with Washington; six of last eight series games stayed under total. Nats won nine of last 13 home games; 11 of their last 13 home games stayed under. NY is 6-4 in its last 10 road games; 13 of their last 17 road games stayed under.

Cubs @ Reds
Richard allowed two runs in 6.1 IP (91 PT) in his first '15 start.

Lorenzen is 0-2, 3.45 in his last three starts; four of his last five stayed under he total- Reds scored two runs in the three games.

Chicago lost four of last six games; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 on road. Reds lost six of their last eight home games. Cubs won six of their last seven games with Cincinnati.

Dodgers @ Braves
Former Brave Beachy allowed three runs in four IP (78 PT) in his first '15 start, his first MLB start since 2013.

Wisler is 2-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; under is 4-0-1 in his last five.

Braves won eight of last 12 home games; 11 of their last 14 games at home stayed under. LA is 14-6 in its last 20 games, 8-2 in last ten on road,. Under is 13-3 in their last 16 road games. Dodgers won eight of last ten games with the Braves; three of last four went over.

Giants @ Padres
Hudson was 2-2, 5.48 in his last four starts before going on DL; three of the four games went over.

Kennedy is 0-4, 7.17 in his last four starts; his last six starts stayed under.

Giants won four of last six games with San Diego; four of last six went under total. SF won last its six games, outscoring foes 43-19; over is 22-8 in their last 30 road games. San Diego lost six of last ten home games; over is 13-5-1 in their last 19 at home.


American League

Mariners @ Tigers
Happ is 1-4, 6.23 in his last six starts; over is 3-1-1 in his last five. .

Simon is 1-3, 11.41 in his last five starts; his last seven starts went over.

Seattle lost four of last six games; under is 10-2 in Seattle's last 12 road games. Tigers lost five of last six games; over is 23-3 in their last 26 games, 11-1 in their last dozen at home. Mariners are 5-3 in their last eight games vs Detroit.

Red Sox @ Angels
Rodriguez is 2-0, 2.08 in his last three starts; four of his last six went over. Wright is 1-2, 4.70 in his last four starts, last of which was June 4.

Santiago is 2-0, 1.00 in his last four starts; under is 8-4 in his last 12. Angels are 4-0 when Heaney starts (3-0, 1.32, over 2-2).

Boston lost seven of last nine games with the Angels; seven of last ten games stayed under total. Red Sox didn't score the last two games. Halos are 16-7 in last 23 home games, with last nine all staying under total.


Interleague

Rays @ Phillies
Moore is 1-0, 7.07 in his three starts (14 IP, over 2-0-1).

Buchanon is 0-5, 7.58 in his six starts (over 3-2-1).

Tampa Bay lost eight of last 11 road games; over is 11-6-1 in their last 18 games overall. Phillies lost four of last five games with Tampa; three of last four went over. Philly won last three games; four of their last six went over.

Pirates @ Royals
Burnett is 1-0, 2.67 in his lst four starts, three of which went over.

Ventura is 1-3, 5.04 in his last five starts; under is 5-1-1 in his last seven.

Pirates won five of last six games with Kansas City (under 5-1); home side won eight of last nine series games. Pittsburgh lost last three games, allowing 18 runs; four of their last six went over. Royals won eight of last ten games; three of their last four stayed under.

Rangers @ Rockies
Martinez is 0-3, 6.66 in his last four starts; four of his last five went under.

Rusin is 0-1, 4.91 in his last three starts; Rockies are 0-6 in his starts if they score less than 10 runs- over is 2-1 in his home starts.

Texas lost 18 of last 23 games; under is 9-4-1 in last 14 road games. Colorado won last four home games, allowing 11 runs; five of their last seven games overall went under the total. Rockies won three of last four games vs Texas.


Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 10-7; Gonzalez 10-6
Chi-Cin-- Richard 1-0; Lorenzen 5-7
LA-Atl-- Beachy 0-1; Wisler 3-2
Mia-Az-- Phelps 5-9; de la Rosa 9-9
SF-SD-- Hudson 7-8; Kennedy 6-10

Sea-Det-- Happ 7-10; Simon 9-8
Bos-LAA-- Rodriguez 6-3 Wright 1-3; Santiago 10-7 Heaney 4-0

TB-Phil-- Moore 1-2; Buchanon 0-6
Pitt-KC-- Burnett 11-7; Ventura 5-8
Tex-Colo-- Martinez 9-7; Rusin 2-6


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Wsh-- Harvey 5-17; Gonzalez 2-16
Chi-Cin-- Richard 0-1; Lorenzen 5-12
LA-Atl-- Beachy 0-1; Wisler 3-5
Mia-Az-- Phelps 5-14; de la Rosa 5-18
SF-SD-- Hudson 5-15; Kennedy 6-16

Sea-Det-- Happ 6-17; Simon 3-17
Bos-LAA-- Rodriguez 6-3 Wright 1-4; Santiago 10-7 Heaney 0-4

TB-Phil-- Moore 1-3; Buchanon 2-6
Pitt-KC-- Burnett 4-18; Ventura 4-13
Tex-Colo-- Martinez 3-16; Rusin 3-8

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CLEVELAND at MILWAUKEE
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CLEVELAND) with a very good bullpen whose ERA is 3.33 or better on the season, after a game where their bullpen blew a save
253-175 since 1997. ( 59.1% | 84.0 units )
16-13 this year. ( 55.2% | 3.0 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | PITTSBURGH at KANSAS CITY
KANSAS CITY is 23-11 (+14.8 Units) against the money line vs. a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start this season.
The average score was: KANSAS CITY (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.4)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty missed with the Mets on Monday and likes the Orioles on Tuesday.

The correct surplus is 53 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo begging for Bucs

Heaney and the Angels showed some spirit Monday night as they shut down the sliding Sawx to raise Hondo’s winning streak to three and lower his deficit to 1,880 dal cantons.

Tuesday night: Mr. Aitch will go with Cole to cool KC — 10 units on the Pirates to patch together a victory.

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DAVE ESSLER

MLB tuesday thoughts

Cubs-Reds: Unless something changes on Monday – Hammel at -125 is probably as good as it’s going to get. I just cannot back the Red bullpen and the Cubs’ pen hasn’t been much to get behind, either. What would concern me if I had an inclination to back the Red (I don’t) is the fact that they’ve been playing in the heat and aside from Frazier, none of the Red starters have rested. After teams got a look at Iglesias, he’s given up five earned runs in his last two starts.

Dodgers-Braves: I actually thought, even given the Dodgers’ lack of any offensive consistency, that they’d be bigger favorites than they are. Anderson – from memory, is (was) ahead of all major league pitchers in terms of inducing ground ball outs – while Wood has a WHIP of nearly 1.70 at home, with two quality starts in six attempts. Add that to the fact that he beat LA in LA back in May – so there’s the revenge thing and the fact that they’ve seen him.

Miami-Arizona: For some reason I’ve always had a hard time getting behind Latos, and a harder one getting behind Hellickson. Miami saw Hellickson back in May so there’s at least some familiarity with a pitcher that spent considerable time in the AL. The Fish are only 1-5 in Latos’ road starts, but it’s been the lack of offense more than Latos that’s caused that, and his last seven starts he’s got a reasonable WHIP, but been burned by the long ball. I’m not sure that’s a chance I want to take in this park, so I may find a way to take Arizona.

Giants-Padres: Again, given the futility of San Diego this season and the fact that several Padres may not be Padres much longer (another reason to wait for lineups) I found Heston -120 to be quite reasonable. Despaigne has indeed been better at home, but better than “not very good” isn’t good enough for me. He and the Padres beat the Giants in San Francisco (Bumgarner, 3-2) on June 23rd so I doubt that happens again. However, liking thee road favorites gives me pause.

Orioles-Yankees: They seem to be asking for people to bet the Yankees at only -120 at home – so my first thought would be to find a reason not to. What I did find interesting is that Chen’s last 11 games have all ended with 7 runs or less, most considerably less. The last time a game involving Chen went over 7 runs – against the Yankees when the Orioles beat Whitley 6-2 in New York. An earlier game against New York, 11 runs against Pineda. Eovaldi has been better at home, but not that great lately – and hasn’t been pitching deep. I do like the O’s pen better, so leaning to yet another road team.

Seattle-Detroit: Walker is getting all the attention lately, and perhaps rightfully so since the Mariners are 6-1 in his last 7 starts and his WHIP over that period is a “Cy Young-Like” 1.105. That’s tough to bet against, even considering the thought of getting Detroit as a home underdog is also tempting. However, as I have said to many people – I will not bet on the Tigers for a full game with their complete lack of a bullpen. The flip side of that is that Detroit just scored some runs off of home in Seattle (but naturally gave up more than they scored). Greene has thrown a total of about 14 innings in two months – and not well. That total already opened at 9 O (-120) so someone has already done their homework.

Boston-Houston: I wouldn’t rule out taking Boston and Brian Johnson, at least for the first five innings. He was a first round draft pick which tells you something, and yes, it’s his major league debut. He’s got a 2.74 ERA at Pawtucket and holds batters to a .217 batting average against. Obviously Houston hasn’t seen him so I wouldn’t be eager to jump on the Astros here, even after the double headed in Anaheim for Boston. Velasquez isn’t anything to put money behind IMO and in fact he has sucked at times, with a 5.71 ERA at home. He did pitch well last time out against Kluber and the Indians, but this game isn’t a slam dunk either way. Maybe under F5 because of complete lack of familiarity.

Toronto-Oakland: Buehrle has been on the uptick lately, and his WHIP over the last seven starts is 0.939 – it just doesn’t get much better than that. He hasn’t faced the A’s yet this year, and the A’s are 7-17 against left handed starters this season. That’s almost enough to back the Jays right there. However, since April Graveman has really only had one start that wasn’t solid, the last one at Cleveland, and he CAN strike people out. The big park could be a detriment to Toronto, and this game should stay under – the winner could well be the one with the better bullpen, and Oakland’s has come around a bit lately. The Jays weren’t hitting against the Rays, either, so be careful with Toronto, IMO.

Twins-Angels: Obvious first test here is the fact that Minnesota had Monday off while the Angels are playing two. That could give some value to Gibson, who I do like. The Twins were massacred by Oakland, and I am not sure having the extra day off to think about that is a good thing. Gibson is deceptively decent, only giving up more than three earned runs twice since April, never in over a month, and his numbers are better on the road. Shoemaker always scares me, but he has kept the ball in the park since we lost on him in May at Toronto. What’s surprising is that the Angels are 1-7 in his home starts and 7-1 in his road starts, so we could use that one of two ways. More work to be done here, but I wouldn’t rule out the Twins, and perhaps the RL in what could be a low scoring game.

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EZWINNERS

3* Marlins +119

2* Rangers +108

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Dominic Brando Sports

MLB Diamond Club DBS High Volume Total Isolation:

CHICAGO/CINCINNATI (HAMMEL/IGLESIAS) OVER 8.5 (7:15 ET)

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MLB Diamond Club

DBS High Volume Program Side Isolation:

COLORADO ROCKIES -115 over Texas Rangers

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The original MLB system bet for July 21 is:


Miami {B} bet - This is an unofficial bet (does not pass RPI filter)




Remember to bet on the +1.5 run line if it is offered, or the money line if it is not offered.


Make sure to observe the following Exterminator system guideline:


In the month of July and August: Only wager on qualifying {A} and {C} bets under the original MLB system, and risk 5% less than what you’d normally have. For example, if you’re a highly conservative bettor whose stake size per wager is 5% of your bankroll, then that means you can just choose to sit out of betting from July going forward. An average bettor would decrease his risk from 10% to 5%, and an aggressive risk taker would decrease that risk from 15% to 10%. You should bet that same percentage amount for all the {A} and {C} bets that qualified under the original MLB system.


Plus, pass on any series where the first game of a rematch series between the 2 teams happens more than 60 days after their most recent game (after the last game of the original 3-game series or the second game of an intermediate confirmatory 2-game series).


Also, please keep in mind the following filters of the system:


- Do not bet on a team whose road record winning percentage is in the bottom 10% in the league if they are playing on the road


- Play is only official if the RPI value of our team is no more than .015 lower than opponent's.


- Play is only official if our team is not playing against a top 2 highest ranked RPI team


Note that the system plays are official only when they pass all the filters above. If they fail to pass any filter, then the play is considered unofficial.


Regards,
Tony Chau, author of the best-selling Exterminator Betting System

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PAUL LEINER

100* Yankees -125

100* Over 7 – Giants/Padres

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Frank Patron

10,000 Unit MLB Lock


Chicago Cubs -130 over Cincinnati

Listed Pitchers

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Marc Lawrence 4* pick: Pittsburgh Pirates

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ASI July 21th

JEFF BARONE
MLB (-13.17)
CHICAGO -120 CINCINNATI (7PM)
ST LOUIS -122 CHICAGO (8PM)

Patrick
mlb (+2.29)
san diego +115 san fran (10pm)
colorado -121 texas (840pm)

wnba (-1.70)
washington +3.5 tulsa (1230pm)

cfl (-4.70)

SIMON
SOCCER (-18.06)
UEFA Champions League, Qualification (UNDER 2 +105) MALMOE FF @ VMFD ZALGIRIS (2PM)
UEFA Champions League, Qualification (UNDER 2.5 -118) KF SKËNDERBEU KORCA @ CRUSADERS (245PM)