7-28-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

Padres @ Mets
Shields is 1-1, 2.48 in his last five starts, but he hasn't finished sixth inning in any of his last three.

Syndergaard is 2-1, 1.59 in his last five starts (under 4-0-1).

Padres won four of last five games with New York; last three series games got over total. San Diego is 7-3 in last ten games; their last four stayed under the total. Mets are 4-6 in last ten games; over is 4-2-1 in their last seven.

Nationals @ Marlins
Zimmerman is 3-0, 2.93 in his last five starts (over 3-1-1).

Fernandez is 3-0, 2.77 in his four starts, three of which went over.

Washington lost four of last six games with Miami; four of last five in series went over total. Nationals lost six of last nine games; over is 5-1-1 in the last seven. Marlins are off a 3-7 road trip; they won six of last seven at home.

Rockies @ Cubs
Flande is making first '15 start; he allowed eight runs in 17 IP in relief (seven games) this year. LY, he was 0-6, 5.19 in 10 MLB starts. .

Beeler is 0-0, 9.00 in two starts (seven IP, over 2-0) this year.

Cubs are 3-5 in last eight games overall, 6-2 in its last eight games with Colorado (over 5-2 in last seven). Rockies are 3-6 in their last nine games (over 5-2-1 in last eight). Rockies traded SS Tulowitzki late last night.

Reds @ Cardinals
Leake is 3-0, 0.82 in his last three starts; three of his last four stayed under.

Garcia is 2-2, 1.03 in his last five starts, four of which stayed under. .

Cincinnati lost five of last six games with St Louis; over is 5-4 in last nine series games. Reds lost four of last five games; over is 4-2-1 in last seven. St Louis won six of last seven games; under is 5-0-1 in last six.

Brewers @ Giants
Peralta is making first start since May 22 (oblique); he was 1-1, 3.91 in his last four starts before DL-- three of his last four starts went over.

Cain is 2-0, 2.65 in his last three starts; over is 3-1 in his '15 starts. .

SF won 12 of its last 13 games overall. Brewers lost five of last six games; they scored two runs in last three games- their last four games stayed under the total. Giants won last seven games with Milwaukee; three of last five series games went over total.

American League
Tigers @ Rays
Former Ray Price is 2-1, 1.80 in his last four starts; last three stayed under.

Odorizzi is 1-1, 1.40 in his last three hme starts; eight of his last ten starts overall stayed under the total.

Detroit lost ten of its last fourteen games; four of its last five games stayed under total. Tigers lost seven of last ten games with Tampa Bay- five of last eight series games went over. Rays lost three of last five; under is 7-1-2 in their last ten games.

White Sox @ Red Sox
Samardzija is 2-1, 1.71 in his last four starts; three of four stayed under.

Miley is 0-0, 0.69 in his last two starts; six of his last nine went over.

White Sox won their last five games, but they're 4-7 in last 11 games with Boston, which lost nine of last 11 games overall-- over is 6-3 in their last nine games. Three of last four series games went over the total.

Royals @ Indians
Young is 1-2, 5.85 in his last four starts; under is 3-1-2 in his last six.

Bauer is 0-2, 9.90 in his last two starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Royals won seven of last ten games overall (under 5-1-1 last seven). Indians lost last five games, outscored 35-9; seven of their last nine games went over. Over is 8-2-1 in last 11 series games.

Bronx @ Rangers
Capuano is making first start since May 29; he is 0-3, 7.82 in his three starts this year (under 2-1).

Perez is 0-1, 5.73 in his two starts this year (over 1-1).

Bronx won nine of last 11 games (four of last five went over); they lost four of last five games with Texas, allowing 35 runs (under 8-3 in last 11). Rangers won four of last six games (over 6-3 in last nine).

Angels @ Astros
Wilson is 3-1, 2.56 in his last five starts; four of the five stayed under.

McHugh is 5-2, 3.04 in his last seven starts; his last five all stayed under.

Angels won three of last four games with Houston; seven of last nine series games stayed under. Halos lost three of last four games; seven of their last nine away games went over total. Astros won five of last seven games; four of their last five stayed under total.

Interleague
Phillies @ Blue Jays
Morgan is 0-2, 4.98 in his last four starts (over 2-2).

Doubront is 1-1, 6.06 in his three starts (over 1-1-1).

Philly lost eight games with Toronto; last three went over total. Phils are 8-1 in their last nine games overall, scoring 26 runs in last four. Blue Jays traded Reyes for Tulowitzki late last night; they're 4-0 in game following last four losses-- over is 4-1-1 in their last six games.

Braves @ Orioles
Teheran is 0-1, 3.86 in his last three starts; three of last four stayed under.

Jimenez is 0-3, 7.11 in his last four starts; over is 5-2-1 in his last eight.

Atlanta lost four of last five games with Baltimore; last four stayed under. Braves lost four of last five games- under is 8-1-1 in their last ten. Orioles won last three games, allowing four runs; under is 5-1-1 in their last seven.

Pirates @ Twins
Morton is 0-3, 5.11 in his last four starts (under 3-0-1 in last four).

Pelfrey is 0-4, 7.52 in his last five starts (under is 3-1-2 in his last six).

Pirates lost seven of last ten games with Minnesota; six of last nine in series went over total. Pittsburgh won three of last four games overall (over 3-1). Twins lost six of last eight games; last three went over total.

A's @ Dodgers
Gray is 1-1, 2.86 in his last three starts (under is 3-0-1 in his last four).

Former Athletic Anderson is 0-1, 6.14 in his last three starts; over is 2-1-1 in his last four outings.

A's won seven of last nine games against the Dodgers; last four went under the total. Oakland lost last four games, scoring nine runs (under 3-1). LA lost four of last seven games; four of their last five home games stayed under.

Diamondbacks @ Mariners
Godley blanked Milwaukee for six innings (88 PT) in his first MLB start. .

Iwakuma is 2-0, 1.74 in his last three starts- all three stayed under.

Arizona lost eight of last 11 games with Seattle; they won four of last five games overall-- under is 6-2-1 in their last nine. Seattle won three of last five games; five of its last seven went over the total.

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
SD-NY-- Shields 11-10; Syndergaard 6-7
Wsh-Mia-- Zimmerman 13-7; Fernandez 3-1
Colo-Cubs-- Flande 0-0; Beeler 2-0
Cin-StL-- Leake 10-10; Garcia 3-4
Mil-SF-- Peralta 3-6; Cain 3-1

Det-TB-- Price 15-5; Odorizzi 7-8
CWS-Bos-- Samardzija 10-10; Miley 10-10
KC-Clev-- Young 9-6; Bauer 9-10
NY-Tex-- Capuano 0-3; Perez 1-1
LA-Hst-- Wilson 11-9; McHugh 13-7

Phil-Tor-- Morgan 3-2; Doubront 1-2
Atl-Balt-- Teheran 11-9; Jimenez 9-10
Pitt-Min-- Morton 7-4; Pelfrey 10-8
A's-LA-- Gray 12-8; Anderson 10-9
Ariz-Sea-- Godley 1-0; Iwakuma 3-4

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
SD-NY-- Shields 4-21; Syndergaard 3-13
Wsh-Mia-- Zimmerman 7-20; Fernandez 1-4
Colo-Cubs-- Flande 0-0; Beeler 0-2
Cin-StL-- Leake 4-20; Garcia 2-7
Mil-SF-- Peralta 2-9; Cain 1-4

Det-TB-- Price 4-20; Odorizzi 4-15
CWS-Bos-- Samardzija 10-20; Miley 5-20
KC-Clev-- Young 1-15; Bauer 3-19
NY-Tex-- Capuano 1-3; Perez 0-2
LA-Hst-- Wilson 4-20; McHugh 6-20

Phil-Tor-- Morgan 0-5; Doubront 1-3
Atl-Balt-- Teheran 7-20; Jimenez 4-17
Pitt-Min-- Morton 6-11; Pelfrey 3-18
A's-LA-- Gray 3-20; Anderson 7-17
Ariz-Sea-- Godley 0-1; Iwakuma 3-7

Umpires
Col-Chi-- Over is 6-3-1 in last ten Morales games.
Cin-StL-- Road team won all three Pattillo games.
Mil-SF-- Underdogs won seven of last ten Randazzo games.

KC-Clev-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Cederstrom games.
Det-TB-- Over is 8-4 in last twelve Estabrook games.
Chi-Bos-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Eddings games.
NY-Tex-- Seven of last nine Fletcher games stayed under.

Atl-Balt-- Underdogs are 10-6 in last sixteen Barry games; over is 3-1-1 in his last five.
Az-Sea-- Five of last six Wolcott games stayed under.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road underdogs (INDIANA) off a road loss, on Tuesday nights
106-57 since 1997. ( 65.0% | 43.3 units )
2-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 2.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CONNECTICUT) poor defensive team (72-76 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=76 PPG) after 15+ games, after a close win by 3 points or less
36-14 since 1997. ( 72.0% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is greater than 65.5 after going under the total by 18 or more points total in their last three games, with a winning percentage of between 45-55% after 15 or more games
62-28 since 1997. ( 68.9% | 31.2 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Orioles on Monday and likes the Orioles on Tuesday.

The deficit is 209 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo has a crew of two

Those high-flying Yankees took care of Hondo’s business Monday night at world famous Globe Life Park, rolling past the Rangers to lower the NRN (nasty red number) to 1,860 horners.

Tuesday night: If Obama and Kerry trust Teheran, that should be good enough for everybody — 10 units on the Braves. Also, Mr. Aitch expects Sonny to brighten his day — 10 units on the A’s.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

3* (959) Brewers +$135

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SOCCER BETTING MASTERS

Europe » Champions League » CSKA Moscow (Rus) – Sparta Prague (Cze)

CSKA Moscow to win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Frank Patron

10,000 Unit MLB Lock

SF Giants -150 over Milwaukee

Listed Pitchers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tuesday 100 Dime Plays Report.

Mets -145

Marlins -125

Rays +105

Under 8.5 Redsox

Astros -120

Phillies +120

Platinum Plays Win

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Simon – soccer

uefa – champions league ( under 2.5 -140) sparta prague @ cska moscow (1215pm)

uefa – champions league (fc midtjylland +100) apoel nicosia @ fc midtjylland (1pm)

uefa – champions league (over 2.5 +110) as monaco @ young boys bern (215pm)

uefa – champions league (over 2 -115) bate borisov @ videoton fc (230pm)

uefa – champions league (under 2.5 -130) molde fk @ nk dinamo zagreb (245pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Joe Gavazzi


5% KC Royals (+105)
4% San Fran Giants (-150)
4% Baltimore Orioles (-180)
3% Minnesota Twins (-105)
3% NY Mets (-140)
3% Miami Marlins (-110)


Pittsburgh Pirates (Morton) at Minnesota Twins (Pelfrey) (-105) 8:10 ET
The Pittsburgh Pirates visit the Minnesota Twins for the first of an early week set at Target Field. The first pitch will be at 8:10 ET. This is a battle of 2nd place teams, who as hunters, will play with great intensity. The Twins are in 2nd place in the AL Central, trailing KC by 8 games. But, they are one of only 5 teams in the American League who are above .500. As such, they hold down a current Wild Card spot. The Pittsburgh Pirates, at 57-41, are 6 ½ games behind St. Louis in the NL Central. But, the Pirates have the 3rd best record in MLB at 57-41 and hold a 2 ½ game lead over San Fran for the 1st Wild Card spot.

After closing the first half of the season with a trio of victories over St. Louis, the Pirates pulled to within 2 ½ games of the Cards. But a disastrous 6-game road trip to open the 2nd half, in which they went 1-5, put them behind the 8 ball. A 3-1 home series against Washington improved the Pirates’ recent record to 39-19, best in MLB in that span. Of greatest concern is the road record which is 22-24. The performance on the road is most troubling for tonight’s starter, Morton, as well. Though he has pitched well at PNC Park, he has a 7.81 ERA on the road in 5 starts. Unfortunately, that coincides with his recent current form which, after a fast start, has seen Morton post a 7.76 ERA in his most recent 6 starts. With those kinds of numbers, it is tough to trust the Pirates and Morton as a road favorite.

Minnesota and Pelfrey present a totally dichotomous profile. After winning Friday night at home vs. NYY, the Twins had a lost weekend in dropping a pair to the Bronx Bombers. After their 26-12 surge through May, they have now regressed to 20-24 the last 2 months. But, their record at home at 32-18 is one of the best in MLB. Such is the same for tonight’s starter, Pelfrey, who has pitched by far his baseball from this mound. Minnesota has won 6 of 8 Pelfrey home starts, in which he has a 2.22 ERA and 1.14 WHIP.

In a matchup of current Wild Card teams, we favor the huge home/road dichotomy presented by both the numbers for Minnesota and Pittsburgh, as well as Pelfrey and Morton.




KC Royals (Young) at Cleveland Indians (Bauer) (-115) 7:10 ET
Much like last night, a 9-4 KC victory, the linemaker has installed the wrong team as the favorite. Cleveland has lost 5 consecutive games, including 7 straight on this field, where they are 19-31 (the worst record in MLB). The Tribe has plated just 9 runs in their most recent 6 home games. There is little to recommend with tonight’s starter, Bauer, who in his last 4 home starts has a 9.15 ERA from this mound. That is all part of an 8-start streak, in which Bauer has a 6.40 ERA. In his most recent start, Bauer lasted 6 IP, allowing 6 runs including 3 HRs in an 8-1 loss to CWS. Far prefer the KC Royals as underdog, who (with the addition of Cueto), are now the favorite to win the World Series. They have recent marks of 15-5, including a 3-game winning streak. On the road, they are 26-20, a solid winning record. Most importantly is their performance when Young is starting on the road. KC is 5-1 in Young’s roadstarts, in which he has a 0.91 road WHIP. Like I said, “wrong team favored.” HUGE value again with the Royals tonight!


Milwaukee Brewers (Peralta) at San Francisco Giants (Cain) (-150) 10:15 ET
Want no part of a fading Milwaukee team, who after going 24-15, is now 1-5 scoring just 2 runs in their last 3 games. Likewise, I have no interest in Peralta, who makes his first start since May 22ndafter a stretch on the DL with a strained left oblique. Giants are rolling now and fully motivated, trailing the Dodgers by just ½ game. San Fran has won 12 of 13, outscoring the opposition 80-36, while averaging 6.2 RPG with a .324 BA. With last night’s 4-2 victory, they have now won 7 straight vs. the Brewers. Cain is rounding into form nicely after his own stint on the DL. He comes off a 7-1 victory vs. San Diego in which he allowed just 1 run in 6 IP with 6 Ks. Pure momentum play on the Giants!


Atlanta Braves (Teheran) at Baltimore Orioles (Jimenez) (-180) 7:05 ET
Look for the 46-53 Braves to fade badly in the weeks ahead. They are bottom 7 in MLB in both pitching and batting OPS numbers. They have been horrible on the road this year, going 20-33, including recent slides of 4-14 and 1-8 in which they have a .178 BA on the road. After standing 35-35, they have gone 11-18. But, the headline story here is the home/road dichotomy of tonight’s starters. In 9 road starts, Teheran is 0-4 with a 7.61 ERA of late. His road WHIP is 1.78 (a clear play AGAINST number). Jimenez is just the opposite. Equally poor on the road, Baltimore has won 6 of 7 Jimenez home starts in which he has a 2.06 ERA and a 0.92 home whip. Baltimore, who recently went 5-15, has turned things around with 3 consecutive wins, including a WOW (walk off win) last night against the Braves on this field by a score of 2-1.


San Diego Padres (Shields) at NY Mets (Syndergaard) (-140) 7:10 ET
Don’t put too much weight into the Padres’ weekend sweep of Miami, a terrible road team. The Padres have still scored only 13 runs in their last 6 games. And, it figures to get little better against Syndergaard tonight. The Mets have won 5 of 6 Syndergaard home starts, in which he has a 1.74 ERA and a PLAY ON HOME WHIP of 0.87. The last 5 starts, Syndergaard has worked 34 IP with 34 Ks and a 1.59 ERA. Shields is on his way out of San Diego this week. But, he may have hurt his value. As in the most recent 9 games, he is 1-3, yielding 4.6 BB per 9 IP. Lay it with the Mets, who are 34-16 at home.

Washington Nationals (Zimmermann) at Miami Marlins (J. Fernandez) (-110) 7:10 ET
Marlins return from a lost weekend in San Diego to a home field where they are 24-23, winners of 6 of their 7 most recent home games. That is better than the 24-26 road record of Washington. That is reflected in their 4-4 record in 8 Zimmermann road starts in which he has a 4.67 ERA and a 1.49 road WHIP. Though Zimmermann has a solid history on this field, going 4-1 with a 2.49 ERA in 10 starts, that pales in comparison to the work done by Fernandez from this mound. In 3 starts against Washington, Fernandez has a 0.45 ERA. That is part of his LIFETIME record from this mound that has seen him go 14-0 with a 1.17 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VSI WNBA PLAYS

4 Unit Play. Take #651 UNDER 160 � Chicago at Phoenix (10:05 p.m., Tuesday, July 28)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Informer

5* LA Dodgers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Aquino
Now +1.03* during the free month. (-0.52* MLB)(+2.64* WNBA)(-1.09* CFL)

MLB: padres/mets under 7, yankees/rangers over 9.5, rockies/cubs over 8.5

WNBA: sky/mercury under 160.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

Yankees -120 over Rangers
Capuano/Perez