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Game Analysis
The Astros lead the majors in homers and have added Carlos Gomez, who is expected to be in uniform today.
The Diamondbacks are a very good offensive, team. They are made even better playing in a hitter-friendly AL park such as Minute Maid Park and with a DH. The pitching matchup favors a lot of runs here.
Arizona's Rubby De La Rosa has talent, but command issues. He is prone to the long ball, especially on the road where he's surrendered 13 homers in 55 1/3 innings. Houston is No. 1 in homers with 141. De La Rosa has a bad matchup here. De La Rosa, who pitched for Boston last season, has a 9.28 career ERA versus the Astros in four appearances, including two starts. Houston is going with the weak link in its rotation, journeyman Scott Feldman. He has a 4.54 ERA. His metrics aren't impressive either and neither is his command. His line drive rate ranks among the highest of starters with 70 or more innings pitched.
917 TAM / 918 BOS OVER 8.5 PinnacleAnalysis: As most of you already know we handicap these games using a Very Strong Database that tells us a number of things and particularly when starting pitching might be ON or OFF. We also use other non traditional ways of thinking that Books and Bettors don't account for. This gives us a large edge and we don't talk about these because of that. In this case we are staying with what we have played all week, and that is a Game at Fenway OVER the Totals. It's not all about the Venue but the fact is this park is often OVER Worthy late in the year with Hot Temps and Favorable winds. We also have some very good ba§tting match-ups in this contest that should serve us well. Games here at this park have averaged about 9.5, our number here is actually 10.3 and that means that even if this number were 9 we would still play the Full 3%. At the 8.5 percentages of winning goes up considerably though so I would not wait to play it. Predicting where MLB Numbers go is not an easy task these days and this might even spill downward some due to the overall prowess of these starters + the recent hitting and scoring woes of the visitors. If you watch lines closely as we do you might want to wait to get better vig or perhaps even a better number. Otherwise I would play it now and you can do that at a few Books right now at +100..
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