12-11-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

IndianCowboy
Sport: College Basketball
Game: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles @ Kansas State Wildcats - Thursday December 11, 2008 8:00 pm
Pick: 3 unit(s) ATS: Southern Mississippi Golden Eagles +5.5 (-110) (Normal)

Boy, the line alone makes you wary that something is up. After all, you have an undefeated Big 12 team at home only laying 5 points to a Southern Miss team that is hitting the highway. In fact, over 80% of the public is on Kansas State here and yet the line has refused to budge. But, Southern Miss in my opinion is a team that is really under the radar. Keep in mind that this team beat La Salle earlier this year in overtime, beat a very good Iona team, lost to South Alabama in overtime as well and lost to New Mexico by just 2 points on the road. So, this in many ways is a bounce-back for Southern Miss. Kansas State has lost the last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points and those come against very solid teams in Oregon, Iowa and Kentucky. Call me nuts here, but I think 80% of the public is indeed wrong here and that Southern Miss likely wins this game outright. Besides, I’ve always said, the 5.5 line in sports betting is one of the worst lines as it typically indicates that the underdog is likely to win outright. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS following a S.U. loss and Kansas State is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

GOLDEN CONTENDER

Here is a nice totals play for the nfl game tonight,i would rate the game a little higher but there is a call for inclement weather.On Thursday night the totals play in nfl action is on the OVER in the Chicago Bears No.Saints matchup.Rotation numbers 301/2 at 8:15 eastern.There are some solid over angles going in this game for both sides tonight,looking at the Saints we note they are 7-1 over when the line is +3to-3,10-2 over vs 500 or better,3-1off a division game and 5-0 over vs the Nfc North.For the Bears over angles include 6-1 over as a home fav of 3 or less,7-3 over at home when the posted total is 42.5 to 45,and they are 18-6 over in there last 24 at home.In the series since 1992 8 of the 11 games between the two have gone over including 5 of the 7 in Chicag0.Ill back the over here tonight.For those looking for something to pound consider the first 6 unit nba play this season from 44-10,23-4,and 10-1 systems.The totals play in the nfl will be rated at 3 units at 45 or less. BOL GC-

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Lenny Del Genio | CBB Sides
double-dime bet511 S.Miss 5.5 (-110) BetUS vs 512 Kansas St.


Play on Southern Miss at 8:00 ET.
Southern Miss is our CBB Oddsmaker Mismatch.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Thank You for ordering from Pro Sports Plays

Thursday Plays

10* Take Villanova (-10) over St. Joseph’s (NCAA Top Play)

St. Joe’s has lost 18 of the last 20 games as an underdog of 10 points or more and they have also lost 3 consecutive games vs. Villanova against the spread on the road the last 3 games.


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5* Play Dallas (-10.5) over Charlotte (NBA Bonus Play)

5* Take Miami-Oh (-13.5) over WI-Milwaukee (NCAA Bonus Play)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

RON RAYMOND'S 5* NBA UNDERDOG GAME OF THE NIGHT
Pick # 1 Portland Trailblazers (2.5)






4 2008-12-11 RON RAYMOND'S 5* CBB BEST BET WINNER! (11-4 ON THE SEASON)
Pick # 1 Weber State (-1.5)







2 2008-12-11 Ron Raymond's 5* SAINTS VS. BEARS BEST BET WINNER!
Pick # 1 Chicago Bears (-3.0)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Dr. Bob

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (-3.0) 25 New Orleans 24
05:15 PM Pacific Time Thursday, Dec-11 - Stats Matchup
New Orleans is a better team than the Chicago but the situation favors the Bears in this game. The Saints average a league best 6.4 yards per play (against teams that would allow 5.3 yppl to an average team) and Drew Brees should have another good game against a Bears’ defense that is very good defending the run (3.6 ypr allowed) but only average against the pass (excluding game 1 against Peyton Manning, who was rusty after missing all of training camp, and game 2 against Carolina without star WR Steve Smith). I rate the Bears’ defense at just 0.2 yppl better than average overall and they are at a huge disadvantage against the Saints. The Bears are 0.2 yppl worse than average offensively with Kyle Orton in the game and the Saints are only 0.1 yppl worse than average defensively after adjusting for strength of opposing offenses faced. The Saints are not only better from the line of scrimmage (I project 6.3 yppl for New Orleans and just 5.3 yppl for the Bears in this game), but they are also better in special teams. Chicago does have a 1.7 points edge I projected turnovers but my math favors the Saints by 3 ½ points. Unfortunately, New Orleans applies to a negative 39-98-3 ATS road letdown situation while the Bears apply to a 79-33-2 ATS statistical indicator. I’ll choose the math over the angles and lean slightly with New Orleans plus the points

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Seabass steam play

100* Bears/saints over 46


seabass

NHL
20*columbus
10*carolina

NBA
20*Charlotte

NCAAB
30*Long Beach State
30* Villanova

NFL
20* Bears

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Northcoast
Marq---Over 46 Bears/Saints

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

Stan Sharp NBA

Utah -2.5

Double Dime

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

RAS

Sac State under 140.5
Troy State over 146.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

INDIAN COWBOY


POD: Take Portland +3 over the Utah Jazz (Thursday @ 10:30pm Est).

3 of 4 Winning Weeks in College Basketball:

Profit in College Football Last Week

Will Release all Bowl Selections this year by December 18th through the National Championship for clients convenience and allowing them to have the best lines. Once again, all of it will be released on that day along with the NFL card for that weekend: Let's Roll - if I do not profit with my bowl picks this season then the site will give a free week's worth of my NBA/College Basketball Picks @ no charge. Keep in mind I went 59% last year and look to do even better this year:

This is a game that I think Portland can win outright. Note, that Boozer is out for this game. Utah is getting 65% of the backing here at home and I beleive the public is wrong as the spread is minimum for a reason in my opinion. Remember, Portland is a 15 win team thus far and is above .500 on the road. Portland comes off their first loss of the season at home so I expect them to bounce-back well here. Heck, this team was a perfect 7-0 at home prior to losing to the Magic at the Rose Garden in what was a revenge game for the Magic. So, the Magic consequently won outright as Portland won outright at Orlando earlier this year. Fair enough. Utah beat this team 103-96 at home earlier this year back in November so Portland has revenge. Portland has lost 5 straight covers but note that they have won their last 7 of 9 and the 2 losses were to the Celtics on the road and the Magic at home by 1 point. Utah comes off a win against Minnesota as they return home. But, the Jazz aren't unbeatable at home as they have shown in recent games. This is the same team that over the last 2 weeks has lost to the Heat and Nets outright at home. In short, let's back Portland here given that they havea revenge from an earlier season loss and coming off their first home loss of the year. The Blazers are 7-3 ATS following a straight up loss and are 11-5 ATS as a small dog of 0.5 to 4.5 points. Let's go Blazers!

Take Under 45 between New Orleans Saints @ Chicago Bears: This is our Thursday Night Football Game. You have the Saints and the Bears in a must win here as the winner of this game pretty much knocks out the other for contention in the tight NFC Playoff Race. This is also a repeat of the NFC Championship from a few years back. The Saints are 6-6 coming off a big win over the Falcons at home and the Bears are 7-6 coming off a win over the Jags at home. The spread sits at -3 and I got the public at 51% backing the Bears at home. The Saints are 9-4 ATS, 5-1 at home SU but just 1-5 on the road. The Saints have covered the last four games but to be frank, I feel that the total is eerily low. There could be possible inclement weather coming into this game and I have a consensus that favors the over here by over 70%. The over would make sense on some accounts simply because the Saints could be a competitive dog which would help the over as well as the fact that the Saints defense is terrible. Having said that though, I think this game will likely play out like the Saints vs. Bucs. Remember the final score in that game was 23-20. The game closed at 43 points and I think that the Saints defense in that game similar to this game will step up when need be. The Bears offense by no means is stellar and will have to rely on their respect defense as well. In short, I believe the total is low for a reason. I would love to give you a ton of trends that backs this play for us, but I simply can't. However, per this situation, I have this game at 23-20 and I think it is a sound public fade to take the under here rather than the side.


Take Idaho State +10.5 over Wisconsin Green Bay (Thursday @ 8pm est). Idaho State is 0-3 on the road and gets only 35% of the backing here. Note, that there is no previous meeting between the two teams here, but Idaho State has covered the last three games successfully including at Wisconsin losing by a bucket as 19.5 dogs. Heck, this team beat Utah by 4 points at home and they were dogged by 12 points. That is without a doubt impressive and this team has covered the last three games and has lost three games in overtime to the likes of Boise State, Long Beach State and Hawaii. Note, that the total that will be placed on this game will be very small. Why? Because Wisconsin Green Bay is not a high scoring offense by any means and for them to lay this many points in what should be a low scoring game against an Idaho State team that has played some solid teams very tough is a tough feat for them to cover. Heck, Idaho State is 3 overtime games away from being 5-3. The Bengals are 4-1 ATS against teams with a winning % of 60% or greater.





Take Southern Miss +5.5 over Kansas State (Thursday @ 8pm est). Boy, the line alone makes you wary that something is up. After all, you have an undefeated Big 12 team at home only laying 5 points to a Southern Miss team that is hitting the highway. In fact, over 80% of the public is on Kansas State here and yet the line has refused to budge. But, Southern Miss in my opinion is a team that is really under the radar. Keep in mind that this team beat La Salle earlier this year in overtime, beat a very good Iona team, lost to South Alabama in overtime as well and lost to New Mexico by just 2 points on the road. So, this in many ways is a bounce-back for Southern Miss. Kansas State has lost the last 3 games by a combined total of 9 points and those come against very solid teams in Oregon, Iowa and Kentucky. Call me nuts here, but I think 80% of the public is indeed wrong here and that Southern Miss likely wins this game outright. Besides, I've always said, the 5.5 line in sports betting is one of the worst lines as it typically indicates that the underdog is likely to win outright. The Eagles are 6-1 ATS following a S.U. loss and Kansas State is 2-11-1 ATS in their last 14 games overall.







Take New Mexico State -20 over Sacramento State (Thusday @ 9pm Eastern). New Mexico State feels the love from 62% of the public here. New Mexico State comes off a tough road trip losing to Long Beach State, Kansas and North Texas. This team is glad to be home and they did blowout Pepperdine by 24 and have covered both games at home despite being big chalks. These two teams have no prior history which typically favors the dog and Sacramento State although having 7 losses has lost by under 15 points to the likes of Fresno, UC Irvine and Washington State. Having said all this, New Mexico State comes home after a very tough road trip and I wouldn't be surprised if they unleash a can of whoop-a today considering they beat Pepperdine 90-66 earlier this year at home and beat UC Irvine by 27. In short, New Mexico State is not shy of blowing teams out at home and after three straight losses, this team needs a morale boost and they get it here with a big win over Sacramento State. Remember, New Mexcio State averages 78 points per game while Sac State averages just 56 and that will make the difference today as New Mexico State has underperformed thus far and I believe they redeem themselves a bit here. The Aggies are 10-1 ATS at home of late and 8-0 ATS against teams with a straight up losing record because they love to blow out weaker teams they come across.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-11-08

vegas-runner | NFL Total Double-Dime Bet
320 BAL / 319 PIT Over 34.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis: *** NFL 2* "POD-CAST" GAME OF THE WEEK *** (Possible Upgrade)




Thu, 12/11/08 - 8:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
302 CHI / 301 NOS Under 47.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
*** NFL "PRIME-TIME" 3* TOTAL PLAY of the DAY ***

With this line sitting at 46.5...my initial read was to allow the Betting Public to continue driving it up, so that we are able to get to that KEY # of UNDER 47...But the reluctance of the books to adjust it to 47, shows me that they are well aware that the Outfits would definately look to take a very strong position, since the edge would be even greater...

So rather than risk them coming in and taking some of the Value away from this Total...Let's go ahead and BUY the 1/2 PT and take it up to UNDER 47 (-120) as our NFL TOTAL PLAY of the DAY...Please Check Back for a Possible Upgrade on this Wager...VR





Thu, 12/11/08 - 8:15 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
302 CHI -2.5 (-120) Sportsbetting.com vs 301 NOS
Analysis:
*** NFL "PRIME-TIME" 2* SIDE PLAY of the DAY *** (Possible 3* Upgrade)



Buy the 1/2 down to -2.5...with the Bears now at -3 even or +105...the vig should be fairer than when they offer it flat...VR