9-4-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[kar261]

Matt Rivers Blank Check: Boise St -13 over UW

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Dave Cokin


[153] Charlotte +5
[160] Boise State -10

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GMC CFB Selections
09/04/2015
160 BOISE STATE -12

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EZWINNERS

2* (151) Baylor Bears -35.5

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Fezzik

Triple-Dime

Boise St. -10.5 (-110)



Analysis:

This game has BLOWOUT written all over it ... Boise State is a fringe top 30 team, white 17 starters back. Washington isn't even a top 60 team, has just 9 starters back, and no QB ... Boise has a home field worth 7 full points, and they are more than 7 points better than Washington on a neutral. Further, they have a 6-38 loss 2 years ago, to fuel the fire here Boise knows is it CRITICAL to look good to move up in the polls, they firmly believe they have a shot to go 12-0, but it has be an impressive 12-0 due to their weak schedule, to maximize where they can land in the Bowls.The power ratings love the play. The Blue TURF HFA makes it stronger. The huge edge in returning starters is a huge moneymaker early in the year.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella

3* PAC-12 Game of the Week MAX BET

Boise State -10.5

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Strike Point Sports


3-Unit Play. Take #158 Illinois (-14.5) over Kent State (9 p.m., Friday, Sept. 4)

I know the drama that is surrounding the Illinois athletic department may seem like it will hinder the football team, but it won't. This squad has faith in their new coach. Previous coach Tim Beckman was not beloved by the program. On the other hand, they players and staff like interim coach Bill Cubit. Cubit knows this offense and knows what it will take to get them going versus a Kent State team that is looking to bounce back after a terrible 2014. Illinois has won 17-straight home openers and this matchup with be number 18 in a big fashion. The Fightin Illini had a porous defense last season that gave up too many points, and that is a point of emphasis heading in to this year. Cubit will have the side of the football fired up to make a statement in Week 1. Kent State is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games versus the Big 10. Lay the big number here as Illinois wins 34-14.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MLB

National League
Diamondbacks @ Cubs
Godley is 3-0, 1.50 in his three starts (over 3-0); Arizona scored 22 runs in the three games.

Lester is 0-2, 6.75 in his last three starts (under 6-3-1 in last ten).

Arizona won seven of last eight games with the Cubs; over is 5-3-1 in last nine series games. D'backs lost seven of last ten games; three of their last four went under the total. Chicago lost six of last eight (under 4-2 in last six).

Braves @ Nationals
Teheran is 1-1, 6.11 in his last three starts; over is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

Roark is making first start since June 28; he is 1-1, 5.72 in his last three starts, with his last five starts going over.

Braves were outscored 82-20 in losing their last nine games (over 8-3-1 last 12); they're 2-9 in last 11 games with Washington-- five of last seven in series stayed under. Nationals are 8-4 in last 12 games (over 4-1 last five).

Mets @ Marlins
deGrom is 4-1, 2.51 in his last nine starts; his last four road starts went over.

Koehler is 0-7, 7.03 in his last seven starts (under 3-1 last four).

Mets won three of last four games with Miami; over is 5-2 in last seven series games. NY won seven of last ten games (over 8-2); they've got a 6-game lead in NL East with 29 games left. Marlins won last three gams; three of their last four home games stayed under.

Brewers @ Reds
Garza is 0-2, 9.30 in his last four starts (over 3-1-1 in his last five).

Sampson is 0-1, 12.27 in his last three starts (over 3-1 in last four).

Milwaukee won six of last seven games with Cincinnati; three of last four in series stayed under. Brewers won four of last five games (over 7-2-1 in last ten). Reds lost six of their last nine games- they lost last six times they scored less than seven runs.

Pirates @ Cardinals
Happ is 3-0, 0.51 in his last three starts; his last five stayed under.

Martinez is 1-2, 5.71 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1 in last three).

Pittsburgh won six of last nine games with St Louis (over 4-1-1 last six); Bucs lost last four games (over 3-0 in last three) overall. Cardinals won eight of last ten games (over 4-1-1 in last six)

Giants @ Rockies
Heston is 0-3, 5.79 in his last four starts; four of his last five road starts went over the total.

de la Rosa is 1-2, 2.52 in his last four starts (under 3-1).

Giants are 5-4 in last eight games with Colorado; seven of last eight series games went over total. Rockies are 6-4 in last ten games; five of last seven went under. Giants are 4-11 in last 15 games overall; under is 3-2-1 in their last six road games.

Dodgers @ Padres
Bolsinger is making first start since July 29; he is 1-0, 2.45 in his last four, with four of his last six going over total.

Shields is 2-1, 2.89 in his last three starts; his last six all went over.

Dodgers won seven of last nine games; under is 8-3-1 in their last dozen. LA is 7-4 in last 11 games with San Diego (under 5-3 in last eight). Padres lost five of last eight games (over 4-0-1 in last five).

American League
Indians @ Tigers
Kluber is 0-1, 4.58 in his last three starts (over 5-2 in last seven).

Lobstein is making first start since May 23; he is 0-3, 7.36 in his last three starts- his last five starts stayed under.

Indians lost six of last eight games with Detroit; over is 8-2 in last ten series games. Cleveland won six of last eight games; last three stayed under. Tigers lost nine of last 11 games, allowing 56 runs in last five (over 5-0).

Rays @ Bronx
Odorizzi is 0-1, 4.33 in his last six starts (over 4-1 in last five).

Severino is 2-2, 2.48 in his five starts (under 3-2).

Tampa Bay won four of last six games with Bronx; under is 7-2-1 in last 10 in series. Rays won three of last four games (over 8-2 in last ten). NY won five of last six; over is 5-3 in their last eight games.

Orioles @ Blue Jays
Jimenez is 0-2, 7.59 in his last four starts (over 3-1).

Hutchison is 3-0, 1.74 in his last three starts; six of his last nine went over.

Orioles lost eight of last ten games; last three went over. Blue Jays won eight of last ten games (under is 5-2 in last seven). Baltimore won three of last four games with Toronto.

White Sox @ Royals
Danks is 0-4, 5.17 in his last five starts (over 3-1 in last four on road).

Medlen is 2-0, 4.76 in his two starts (over 2-0); Royals scored 14 runs in those two games.

White Sox lost their last five games with Kansas City; under is 6-3-1 in last 10 series games. Chicago lost four of last six games; four of its last five got over the total. Royals won five of last seven games (over 4-1 last five).

Twins @ Astros
Pelfrey is 0-1, 5.27 in his last three starts.

McHugh is 2-2, 2.05 in his last five starts (under 4-1).

Minnesota won three of last four games with Houston (under 3-1); Twins are 7-3 in last ten games (over 6-3 in last nine). Astros lost three of their last four games; all four went over the total.

Rangers @ Angels
Perez is 1-1, 4.63 in his last four starts; four of his last five stayed under.

Richards is 2-3, 5.84 in his last seven starts (over 6-1).

Rangers lost seven of last ten games with Angels; six of last seven in series went over total. Texas won six of last seven games (over 2-0-1 in last three). Halos lost four of last six games (over 4-0-1 in last five).

Mariners @ A's
Olmos allowed three runs in five IP (95 PT) in his first MLB start.

Brooks is 1-0, 1.26 in his two home starts (over 3-2 overall in his starts).

Seattle won seven of last ten games with Oakland; last three series games got over total. Mariners won six of last nine games (over 8-2 in last ten). A's lost five of last eight games; over is 8-1-1 in their last ten.

Interleague
Phillies @ Red Sox
Morgan is 2-0, 4.86 in his last three starts; under is 4-2-1 in his last seven.

Kelly is 5-0, 1.97 in his last five starts (over 5-1-1 in his last seven).

Philly lost six of last nine games with Boston; three of last four series games went over. Phils lost seven of last ten games (over 7-2-1). Red Sox lost three of last four games (over 6-4 in last ten)

Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
Az-Chi-- Godley 3-0; Lester 14-12
Atl-Wsh-- Teheran 15-12; Roark 3-3
NY-Mia-- deGrom 17-8 (8-1 last 9); Koehler 10-15 (0-7 last 7)
Mil-Cin-- Garza 8-16 (1-6 last 7); Sampson 3-2
Pitt-StL-- Happ 4-1; Martinez 19-5
SF-Col-- Heston 14-11 (0-4 last 4); de la Rosa 12-11
LA-SD-- Bolsinger 9-7; Shields 13-15

Cle-Det-- Kluber 10-18; Lobstein 3-5
TB-NY-- Odorizzi 10-12; Severino 2-3
Balt-Tor-- Jimenez 13-13; Hutchison 18-7 (7-0 last 7)
Chi-KC-- Danks 11-14; Medlen 2-0
Min-Hst-- Pelfrey 13-12; McHugh 16-10
Tex-LAA-- Perez 5-3; Richards 14-11
Sea-A's-- Olmos 0-1; Brooks 2-2

Phil-Bos-- Morgan 7-5; Kelly 11-11 (6-0 last 6)

Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
Az-Chi-- Godley 0-3; Lester 7-27
Atl-Wsh-- Teheran 9-27; Roark 2-6
NY-Mia-- deGrom 7-25; Koehler 5-25
Mil-Cin-- Garza 8-24; Sampson 3-5
Pitt-StL-- Happ 1-5; Martinez 5-24
SF-Col-- Heston 4-25; de la Rosa 8-23
LA-SD-- Bolsinger 4-16; Shields 7-28

Cle-Det-- Kluber 11-28; Lobstein 5-8
TB-NY-- Odorizzi 5-22; Severino 2-5
Balt-Tor-- Jimenez 7-26; Hutchison 11-25
Chi-KC-- Danks 8-25; Medlen 1-2
Min-Hst-- Pelfrey 3-25; McHugh 8-26
Tex-LAA-- Perez 1-8; Richards 5-25
Sea-A's-- Olmos 1-1; Brooks 2-4

Phil-Bos-- Morgan 1-12; Kelly 9-22

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY METS at MIAMI
Play On - Any team (MIAMI) revenging 4 or more straight losses vs opponent in last 2 years, off 2 straight road wins vs. a division rival
49-29 since 1997. ( 62.8% | 29.8 units )
0-1 this year. ( 0.0% | -1.0 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | MINNESOTA at HOUSTON
HOUSTON is 30-10 (+16.6 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game this season.
The average score was: HOUSTON (4.7) , OPPONENT (3.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo banks on the Yanks

It was Double-Bludgeon Thursday for Hondo, who absorbed beatings with the Braves and Giants to increase the negative number to 1,828 hugginses.

Friday night: Mr. Aitch will go with Seve to escape with a victory against the Rays — 20 units on the Yankees.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JEFF BARONE SPORTS
NCAAF- WASHINGTON/BOISE ST UNDER 55 (1015PM)
Love the blue carpet games in Boise. However this game is going under. The Huskies have no established QB and a defense thats suspect at best. Boise ST comes into this game with there running by committee approach and should control the tempo and run all over the Huskies. If this game was 2 years ago, I say OVEr, not this year UNDER.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

PATRICK DAME- "The Numbers Guru"
MLB- NYM/MIAMI OVER 7 -130 (7PM)
NCAAF- CHARLOTTE/GEORGIA ST UNDER 73.5 (330PM)
I know Charlotte is making there debut at FBS level, but 73.5 points really? Georgia ST is only 1-23 since joining FBS level. This game will be close and I will play the under as I feel this game will be a lot different then what the lines makers predict.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DAVID MIRES SYSTEM
MLB- LA DODGERS -120 SD (10PM)
MLB- LAA -150 TEXAS (10PM)
NCAAF- BAYLOR -36.5 SMU (7PM)
Baylor led the nation in scoring 48ppg and 580 yards per game. They did lose Petty but Seth Russell will lead this offense. SMU comes into the season with a brand new head coach who is changing the offense and defense. This will take time. Baylor has done well in past covering large numbers. Don't let the 36.5 scare you. This is a blowout.
NCAAF- ILLINOIS -14 KENT ST (9PM)
Illinois heads into this match up without there head coach who was fired last week. Illinois has major talent on the offensive side with QB Lunt and RB Ferguson. Kent St has never faired well against Big 10 (0-11 SU 2-9 ATS). Kent ST defense has gotten worse each of the last 5 seasons. Illinois takes care of business.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Simon the "soccer guy"
u21 euro qualifying (under 2.5 -115) beligum u21 @ latvia u21 (11am)
u21 euro qualifying (under 2.5 -140) bulgaria @ romania (1245pm)
european championship (over 2.5 -125) armenia @serbia (245pm)
european championship (under 2 -120) finland @ greece (245pm)