9-5-15

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Philly God Father

[204] Southern Miss +23

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Dave Essler

3* Southern Miss

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Prophet Plays

10* N Ill -23

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Spartan

3* COLLEGE TRIPLE STAR KICK OFF WINNER

Notre Dame -10

Analysis:

Now, as for this opener. Last season we opened the college campaign with an easy winner on Ole Miss and I frankly love our chances to duplicate that here. Lousy spot for Charlie Strong's Long Horns as he takes a young club with Swoopes under center into South Bend for a night opener against an experience Irish club that could return as many as 19 starters from that very salty club a year ago. That does not bode well for the Horns. Add in the fact the Horns are a little dicey on the offensive line and that does not make me want to back them here with Swoopes taking the snaps. Plus, frankly I am not all that enamored with that Texas secondary with the exception of Duke Thomas on the corner. Don't get me wrong. I like and respect Charlie Strong. He inherited a team mired in a country club atmosphere and had to come in and kick some ass and put his stamp on things. He will get the job done, I have little to no doubt. If he can recruit the state with success, and I think he can, he will return this Texas program to the lofty heights its rabid fan base expects. BUT, we are talking about this one game here and most to the point betting on it. Frankly I like the Irish here up to 13.5 as a triple star guys. I see the Irish pulling away late to cover our number.

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Dave Cokin


[166] Temple +7
[182] Northern Illinois -21
[162] East Mich +6
[175] Arizona St +3

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Sports Insights


[192] Kentucky -15.5

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River City Sharps

The Tony Sanchez era officially begins at UNLV on Saturday as his Rebels make the trek to Dekalb to face off with Northern Illinois, our preseason pick to win the MAC. Sanchez may think he is still at Bishop Gorman in Vegas after he sees his team on the field as we fully expect the Rebels to be one of the worst five teams in FBS this season. These two teams played last year in Vegas in Week 3 and the Huskies came away with a 14-point win. This Rebel team will be even younger than the bad ones of the past several campaigns and only return 10 starters from last year’s 2-11 squad, while the Huskies will return 13 starters from their MAC West championship team, the fifth straight time they have won their division. The numbers all scream towards the home side here….Consider that Vegas is 1-14 in their last 15 road openers, losing their last seven by an average of 26 ppg. Meanwhile, NIU is 13-2 in their last 15 home openers, winning their last seven games by an average of 27 ppg. Drew Hare returns at QB for the Huskies and he enjoyed a solid first year as the starter, throwing 18 TD’s to just two interceptions and completing right at 60% of his throws. An interesting ATS trend here regarding NIU is that when the Huskies rush for 250 yards or more, they are 17-3 against the number since 1992 and this Rebel rush defense could be one of the worst they see all year long. This Huskie team is used to be being the big dog in the MAC but were picked third in their preseason poll, so they may come out Saturday with something to prove to the rest of the conference. Huskies absolutely ROLL in this one by 4 TD’s at a minimum. The Sharps say…

3 Units – Northern Illinois (-23)

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RAS

all 1 unit

UCLA O51
WISKY U51
USC O66
TENN O66.5
Penn st over 42

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Gold Medal Club


[166] Temple +7
[168] Tulsa -6
[177] BYU +7

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Doc Sports



5 Unit Play. #182/#204 Take Northern Illinois Huskies -22 over UNLV Rebels (Saturday 7:30 pm CBSSN)

Top Football Play of the Weekend

The Tony Sanchez Era gets underway tonight in DeKalb where the Huskies have won 13 of their last 15 home openers. This includes seven straight wins by an average of 27 points per game, and that is how I see this game going as well. It is not too often teams hire high school coaches for head coaching positions in college football, but that is how desperate UNLV to change the culture. The Rebels are terrible, and this is a complete and utter rebuilding -- everyone knows they will take their lumps this season. The Huskies were a young team last year on defense and still won 11 games and the MAC Title. Northern Illinois beat Las Vegas by 14 points last year in the desert, and expect them to double that output on Saturday. NIU is just better than UNLV in all three phases, and that will become evident throughout this 60 minute game.


4 Unit Play. #165/#165 Take Penn State Nittany Lions -7 over Temple Owls (Saturday 3:30 pm ESPN)


This game is being played in Philadelphia at Temple's home stadium, but they will not have a home crowd advantage. The Lions are Pennsylvania's team, and their fan base will be out in full force in Philadelphia. Penn State is getting more and more scholarships back each year, and they still have a great quarterback in Christian Hackenberg. Penn State has beaten Temple 31 straight times, with their last lost coming in 1941. Enough said, Lay the points as Penn State wins by 14.


4 Unit Play. #196/#182 Take West Virginia Mountaineers -19.5 over Georgia Southern Eagles (Saturday 7:30 pm ROOT Sports)


The Mountaineers had an up-and-down season last year with some impressive wins but really fell apart down the stretch of the season, losing 4 of their last 5 games. Now Dana Holgorsen is on the hot seat, and he needs to get off to a good start and has three winnable games to open up the season. They return most of their starters on defense but have to replace Clint Trickett at quarterback. To me this is a good thing as I never thought much of the former transfer from Florida State. They open with Georgia Southern, a triple-option team that ran the table in the Sun Belt last season. To me, I always like playing against triple-option teams coming off a long layoff as West Virginia has been able to focus all summer on stopping this attack. The Mountaineers are 15-1 in home openers, winning by an average of 29 points per game. That will be good enough for a cover in this contest.

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Raphael Esparza


6 Unit Play. Take #197 Under 51 Texas at Notre Dame (7:30p.m., Saturday September 5 NBC)


This mega matchup screams defense and I would be shocked if the winner of this game has 26 points or more. Both teams will want to run the ball and control the clock and both teams will be avoiding the big passing play as well. I know Notre Dame lost six starters on defense but seems like the Irish always have a top ?D? and if Texas struggles moving the ball then this game easily flies UNDER. Texas offense last year was missing half of the season and their last two games Texas only scored 17 points. Notre Dame offense was huge last year and I'm hoping for a close game because if Notre Dame blows out Texas then we will be popping Tums in the 4th quarter. I see a much closer game and I see Notre Dame winning this game 27-17 and we hit our first 6-Unit Play of the young football season. Texas is 1-5 O/U in their last 6 road games and 5-16 O/U in their last 21 games.



3 Unit Play. Take #182 Northern Illinois -22.5 over UNLV (7:30p.m., Saturday September 5)


It's no secret that I believe the UNLV football program is a joke and now they reached out to the high school ranks as their new Head Coach. Last year UNLV defense allowed rushing touchdowns at will and NIU always has a top-notch running back in their system and we should see the Huskies running wild on the Rebels defense. Sorry new coach Tony Sanchez but this is not high school ball and sorry UNLV fans but this game will get ugly quick. UNLV is 1-5 ATS against non-conference teams and again if Northern Illinois can establish the run early watch out.

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Vern Croy



7-Unit Play. Take the #204 Southern Miss +21 over Mississippi State (Saturday, September, 5 at 10:00 PM ET)

my top CFB play for week 1.


This pick falls into one of my elite CFB systems and we are getting very good line value here Saturday night with a Southern Miss team looking for redemption. Miss State won this match-up 49-0 last year and now they are favored by just 23 and this line has now dropped to 21. The Bulldogs have just 8 starters returning 4 on offense and 4 on defense and they will be looking ahead at LSU next week. Southern Miss passed for 212 yards in the 49-0 loss against a lot better Bulldogs defense than they will see this year and Miss State has far too many question marks to be favored by this much especially in the first game of the season. I have also reached out to my contacts for this game like I will do for any big release this season and they all assure me this line is off big time. Play the Golden Eagles +21 with extreme confidence as they keep this game a lot closer than many may think.



5-Unit Play. Take the #178 Nebraska -7 over BYU (Saturday, September, 5 at 3:30 PM ET)

CFB Game of the Week for week 1.


This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and the Cornhuskers are the superior overall team here Saturday. I know Head Coach Mike Riley way before his time with the Beavers when he was the Head Coach of the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and he will have his team overly prepared here Saturday. The Cornhuskers are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games and the 5 players suspended will not affect the outcome of this game. This is a Nebraska team that will contend for a Big Ten title this season and I'm very excited to see what Riley has done in his short time as the head ball coach. Many think that BYU is Nebraska's toughest season opener in over 12 years however I do not see it this way since I know this BYU team very well, and they have two top 25 teams with Boise State next week and UCLA on deck. It won't be long for Nebraska to climb the rankings after this dominant win. Play Nebraska -7 with confidence Saturday.



4-Unit Play. Take the #206 USC -27 over Arkansas State (Saturday, September, 5 at 11:00 PM ET)


Play the USC Trojans -27 as my 4 Unit CFB Smash for Saturday night. This pick falls into one of my top CFB systems and this is a much different USC team now that the sanctions have been lifted. This team has more talent than they know what to with and I expect big things from USC this season. USC could have easily been 12-1 last season instead of 9-4 as they lost 2 games in the last play of the game and blew a 17 point lead in another game. A failure this season would be for USC not to win the PAC-12 and it all starts with Arkansas State and they will not overlook this team. Play USC -27 with confidence Saturday night as I look for them to take care of business.

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Allen Eastman


7* Wisconsin / Bama Under 49.5

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Maddux


10* Florida State over 65.5