9-13-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler


Triple-Dime Bet

KC Chiefs / Houston Texans UNDER 42 (Pinnacle)

Analysis:

I've been keeping an eye on this one for some time and decided to fire when Arian Foster got hurt in practice and will likely miss most of the season. I've been super-high on the Texans defense, picking up Wilfork and getting Clowney healthy cannot hurt. There just aren't may teams that are going to run on them, and the Chiefs are just not a dynamic offense. Conversely the Houston QB situation is still very up in the air, and although I like both Mallet and Hoyer coming from New Englands' system, neither of them have looked goo early. Even on their best days, Mallett doesn't have the game experience and Hoyer is simply serviceable. Houston has the skill position players at WR/TE - but you've got to run the ball to get the time to get THEM the ball, and the Chiefs defense is every bit of "good". I'll add to this at some point, but since I did put it out there I want you to know the basic premise here.

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Maddux


5 units - Kansas City +7.5 / Buffalo +8.5 (6 Point Teaser)
5 units - Kansas City +7.5 / Minnesota +9 (6 Point Teaser) .... Vikings Mon Night Play

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SMART SPORTS INVESTMENTS WINS


Risked 5 units to win 3.45 Indianapolis Colts -145 vs Buffalo Bills
Risked 3 units to win 2.31 San Diego Chargers -2.5 -130 vs Detroit Lions
Risked 4 units to win 3.2 Cincinnati Bengals -3 -125 vs Oakland Raiders
Risked 3 units to win 3.45 Dallas Cowboys -7 +115 vs New York Giants
Risked 5 units to win 4.90 Chiefs +1 -110 vs Houston Texans

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 467 CLE / 468 NYJ Under 40.5 Pinnacle Analysis: Two pretty good defenses. Two very bad offenses.

We missed the "41" here, but I cannot see these teams scoring........we better grab it now before it dives into the 30s.......which it will.......



Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 471 MIA / 472 WAS Under 44.5 Greek Analysis: Write Up later.......

I think we need to grab this one now......this total should leak down




Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 465 KAN / 466 HOU Under 41.5 Greek Analysis: Lock in this key number now.

Hou should be a dead nuts UNDER team early in the year, and there are some solid trends here that will support a big bet on the UNDER.

Who will Qb Houston? Hoyer? Does it matter if it is Hoyer or Mallett?
They will turn the game over to the Defense, and this one has 17-13 written all over it.



Fezzik | NFL Side Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 468 NYJ -3.0 (-110) Westgate vs 467 CLE

Analysis: Jets lost Geno Smith, but I am aok with that! Markets may react a bit downward, but Jets are the MUCH better team, and I actually prefer Ryan Fitzpatrick to be the starter.
If you have not bet yet, you may want to wait for a -2.5 that might show on the Geno news.
The danger is that we lose Fitz to injury, if that happens this play would be a lemon, with Fitz we have a great bet (likely we could say that about EVERY week1 bet that we need our starter, but in the Jets case, no1 and no2 are rated about the same).



Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
dime bet 475 SEA / 476 STL Under 42.5 Pinnacle Analysis: Analysis later......



Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 4:25 PM
dime bet 485 BAL / 486 DEN Under 49.5 Pinnacle Analysis: I am really disappointed that I am releasing this so late. We missed the 51 AND the 50, so 1 star it is.

Denver has a great team with an average QB this year, Manning. I don't care what they did offensively in prior years, this team is going to run and play defense....... Under is the clear right side......



Fezzik | NFL Side Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
double-dime bet 471 MIA -2.5 (-110) Westgate vs 472 WAS




Fezzik | NFL Total Sun, 09/13/15 - 1:00 PM
triple-dime bet 473 CAR / 474 JAC Under 42.5 Westgate

Analysis: August 19 Update, they just carted Carolina's 1000 yard receiver Kelvin Benjamin off the field. Looks like a really bad knee injury. This makes our UNDER bet REALLY good.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe

4* Miami - 3'

4* Lions Over 46

3* Denver -4

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Mike Davis

7* Arizona -2'

4* Indy -2'

4* Miami -3'

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Prophet

Giants/Cowboys over 51 -120
Cardinals -135
4 team 6.5 pt tease - Packers/Dolphins/Eagles/Cowboys +240

Brewers/Pirates over 7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

bookieshunter NFL

ADDED

Chiefs@Texas UNDER 44(2*)
Giants@Cowboys OVER 51(2*)
Ravens@Broncos UNDER 48.5(3*)
Titans@Bucs - Bucs+3(3*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges
Picks of Pole

NFL


DOUBLE PLAY:

• Minnesota -2 1/2 San Francisco

SINGLE PLAYS:

• Miami -3 1/2 Washington
• St. Louis +4 Seattle
• Buffalo +2 1/2 Indianapolis
• Buffalo--Indianapolis UNDER 45
• Jets--Cleveland UNDER 39 1/2
• Tampa Bay--Tennessee UNDER 41
• Dallas--Giants OVER 51 1/2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL | OTTAWA at BRITISH COLUMBIA
Play On - Underdogs or pick (OTTAWA) off 1 or more consecutive unders, in a game involving two average defensive teams (23-28 PPG) after 9 or more games
69-30 since 1997. ( 69.7% | 36.0 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

NFL | DETROIT at SAN DIEGO
Play Against - Home teams where the line is +3 to -3 (SAN DIEGO) good offense from last season - averaged 335 or more total yards/game, in non-conference games
23-5 since 1997. ( 82.1% | 17.5 units )

NFL | SEATTLE at ST LOUIS
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (ST LOUIS) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games
45-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )

NFL | TENNESSEE at TAMPA BAY
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight ATS losses against opponent first 2 weeks of the year, after closing out last season with 2 or more straight losses
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )

NFL | GREEN BAY at CHICAGO
Play Against - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) in the first month of the season, after closing out last season with 3 or more straight losses, bad team from last season who won only 25% to 40% of their games
45-16 over the last 10 seasons. ( 73.8% | 0.0 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (ST LOUIS) below average hitting team (AVG <=.255) against a decent starting pitcher (ERA=3.70 to 4.20) -NL, with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.250 or better on the season-NL
110-68 since 1997. ( 61.8% | 46.2 units )
9-7 this year. ( 56.3% | 1.7 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | ST LOUIS at CINCINNATI
ST LOUIS is 78-37 (+30.6 Units) against the money line when the total is 7 to 8.5 this season.
The average score was: ST LOUIS (4.2) , OPPONENT (3.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ROOT

Top plays
Chicago
buffalo
st Louis

Medium plays.
Wash
saints

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with Army (+7) on Saturday and likes the Saints on Sunday.

The deficit is 722 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo’s Tex. message

Hondo lost with LSU on Saturday night, but Oklahoma came back in the fourth quarter and overtime to beat Tennessee and limit the overall damage to 1,784 carrs.

Sunday: Mr. Aitch, again deviating from any diamond district investments, sees Houston having no problem beating the Chiefs — 20 units.