9-17-15

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Fezzik

Double-Dime Bet

Denver / Kansas City Under 42.5

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Spartan

3* Chiefs

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Prophet Plays

WNBA
10* Indiana +5

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Just Cover Baby

2* KC Chiefs -3
2* Clemson -5½

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marc lawrence

Denver
Louisville

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StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | INDIANA at CHICAGO
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 off 2 consecutive wins against division rivals, playing with 3 or more days rest
57-25 since 1997. ( 69.5% | 29.5 units )
1-3 this year. ( 25.0% | -2.3 units )

WNBA | INDIANA at CHICAGO
Play On - Any team vs the money line (CHICAGO) excellent free throw shooting team - making >=80% of their free throws, on Thursday nights
98-61 since 1997. ( 61.6% | 0.0 units )
10-5 this year. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | TULSA at PHOENIX
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is between 65.5 and 70.5 points hot team - having won 8 or more of their last 10 games, with a winning record on the season
89-45 since 1997. ( 66.4% | 39.5 units )
2-5 this year. ( 28.6% | -3.5 units )

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | CHICAGO CUBS at PITTSBURGH
Play On - Road teams when the money line is +125 to -125 (CHICAGO CUBS) with a starting pitcher whose ERA is 3.70 to 4.20 on the season (NL), poor defensive catchers - allowing 0.85 + SB's/game on the season
94-59 since 1997. ( 61.4% | 40.3 units )
3-5 this year. ( 37.5% | -2.2 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | HOUSTON at TEXAS
TEXAS is 73-59 (+36.0 Units) against the money line vs. a very good bullpen whose WHIP is 1.250 or better over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.1) , OPPONENT (4.5)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Yankees on Wednesday and likes the Pirates on Thursday.

The deficit is 614 sirignanos.

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Hondo

No Broncs cheers from Hondo

Hondo cashed again with the Cubs, who toppled the Pirates in OT Wednesday night to reduce the accounts payable to 1,900 garretts.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch is counting on the Chiefs to put a feather in his cap and some cash in his pocket — 10 units.

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EZWINNERS

NFL

3* (102) Kansas City Chiefs -3

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King Creole

BRONCOS vs CHIEFS Thursday night 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole

3* UNDER the TOTAL

Admit it… This play makes you uncomfortable, doesn’t it? That’s the feeling I got when I made my bet (at the line of 42.5). The Denver Broncos have been so good to us ‘OVER’ bettors in the last few years. You actually feel like you are CHEATING on them when you decide to bet the ‘UNDER’ instead, don’t you? It’s almost like Denver has been FREE ‘Over’ money whenever you bet on them in the last few seasons. Peyton Manning has been an OVER ‘machine’ since he came to the Mile High City. But like ALL patterns and tendencies, things change over the years. It’s the SHARP bettor or SHARP Over / Under player that recognizes AHEAD of TIME when it is time to go the other way. That’s the case on Thursday night as Manning and his Broncos (who went Under EASILY in Week One) take on the great Kansas City defense.
Under the new Denver offensive coordinator (Gary Kubiak), Peyton Manning is under center a lot MORE. That’s something that is not a great idea, given his recent reduced mobility. His fastball has lost its zip. He has had ALL off-season to get healthy again. And the fact that the Broncos HAVE NOT SCORED A TOUCHDOWN in ANY of the 20 offensive drives that Manning has led since the start of the 2015 pre-season speaks volumes! He was sacked three times in the first half of Sunday’s games against the Ravens. He has not been sacked that many times in a full game in TWO seasons. And on Thursday, he takes on a Kansas City defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passing game to a quarterback in more than two seasons. Last season’s two games versus the Chiefs had OU lines of 50.5 and 49. This Thursday’s line is a full TD LOWER at 42 points. This has been a ruthless OU line regression by the oddsmakers. And it’s entirely justified.
DENVER has gone 0-6-1 O/U in the last four seasons in DIVISION games when the OU Line is 47 or less points…
KANSAS CITY has gone 3-13-1 O/U in their last 17 roles as a home FAVORITE in the last four seasons… including 1-6-1 O/U as shorter favs of < 7 points.
NFL Over / Under tendencies on this particular Day of the Week…
THURSDAY division games in the NFL have gone 7-25 O/U since 1982 when the home team (Kansas City) is a favorite of < 6 points. Last season, these Thursday primetime DIVISION games went 1-7 O/U… with an average of only 33.3 combined point per game!
Over / Under tendencies within this particular division…
0-6-1 O/U since 2009: All AFC WEST DIVISION games in the first month of the season (Games 1-4) when the home team (Kansas City) is favored by 14 < points.
As mentioned above, BOTH of these teams won their first game of the season last week. We want to always look to ‘Go LOW’ (as of late) in the second game of the season in this situation…
2-11-1 O/U last four years: All GAME TWO home favorites when BOTH teams (Chiefs + Broncos) are off a SU Game One WIN… and the OU line is 52 < points. These games went a PERFECT 0-3 O/U last season (Mia @ Buf … Atla @ Cinc… Det @ Car).
Kansas City went OVER in their road win against the Texans last week. Meanwhile, Denver went UNDER in their home win against the Ravens last week.
0-7 O/U last four years: All DIVISION home favorites of < 7 points off a SUATS win that went ‘OVER’ (Chiefs) versus any opponent off a SUATS win that went ‘Under’ (Broncos)… when the OU line is < 54 points.

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Matt Fargo

Fargo's 10* NFL THURSDAY ENFORCER

10* Denver Broncos

Week Two of the NFL is known as the week of overreaction and we are seeing it right out of the gates this week. Denver defeated Baltimore in Week One 19-13 but for some reason, the public is very sour with the Broncos and namely Peyton Manning. In all fairness, he did not look very good as he was just 24-40 for 175 yards with no touchdowns and one interception. It is safe to say he is not happy about it and we can expect a bounceback effort here. Kansas City jumped out to a big lead over Houston and was able to hold on for the seven point road win. The Chiefs were outgained by the Texans however and while it can be argued the differential was caused by garbage time yardage, it isn't like college football where starters are subbed out so there is no excuse thus garbage time is more pronounced in the college game than in the pro game. And dealing with the public perception, because of the lackluster Broncos win and the dominating performance from Kansas City against the Texans, the line has moved from Even from when it opened prior to Sunday's games to -3 and that is the ultimate overreaction. Denver has never lost to Kansas City since Manning came on board as it is a perfect 6-0 and it has amazingly won 12 straight road divisional games going back to the days of Tim Tebow. Thus, coming in as the underdog is a huge advantage.


Fargo's 10* CFB THURSDAY STAR ATTRACTION

10* Louisville Cardinals

Overreacting to the first couple weeks of the season is a common mistake for bettors and of course being the contrarian type, we love the fact that the lines have to be adjusted because of it. Louisville is off to a 0-2 start including a home loss last week to Houston as a 13.5-point favorite. The Cardinals lost their opener in Auburn by seven points which looked good at the time but based on the Tigers near loss against FCS Jacksonville St., we aren't sure what to believe. Still, Louisville is better than its 0-2 record and we will see a focused bunch that knows a 0-3 start could spell disaster for the rest of the season. Clemson is coming off a couple blowout wins over some mediocre opposition and now comes its first real test. Going back to last season, the Tigers have won five straight games by double-digits but none of those have been true road games and this is not an ideal spot as the Tigers went 0-3 ATS last season as road chalk. The offensive line has just one starter back from last season while only three starters are back on a defense that led the nation last season in total defense. Additionally, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in the first month of the season, after closing out last season strong with three or more straight wins. This situation is 48-15 ATS (76.2 percent) since 1992.

[kar261]

Steve Budin 50 Dime: Chiefs (buy the hook down to -2.5)

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SB Professor Original NFL Picks
Denver +3