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Dave Essler | MLB Total - Tuesday, Sep 22 2015 7:05PM
965 NYY / 966 TOR OVER 8.5 single-dime bet
Analysis: This one stood out - let's hope the teams cooperate. Working backwards (because they are never that easy) we've got a good "over" umpire in Chris Fairchild behind the plate. His last game was way under, but it was the Phillies and Braves - go figure, especially this time of year. Prior to that he had a streak of four straight "overs" - and they involved Cole, Garcia, Bumgarner, and Sonny Gray. Two were in small parks - but the Jays is not a big park and one would think, given the weather forecast, that the roof would be open. The Jays have now seen Severino twice already. They beat him here in Toronto, then crushed him in Yankee Stadium 11 days ago. They're going to score. I would consider backing Toronto, ONLY because Texiera (who hits him well) is out. However, he's a huge fly ball pitcher coming in here off of a start that should have him over valued - a shutout against the Braves. I'd take New York based on that and the fact that the Jays pen has stumbled a bit, but when you add it all up, I think both teams get to four runs here - and since this is an important game for both teams, if one gets ahead I doubt they'll take the foot off the gas. This opened at 9 - and IMO it's either a setup for a buyback later, or simply people not being thorough. Win, lose, or draw - we are pretty through most of the time. Let's see if we can't extend our streak on these -
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