9-26-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob
2* Baylor
2* Ohio State
1* Houston
1* Bowling Green
Strong opinions
(311) Army (+2)
(325) Virginia Tech (-9 ½)
(346) Iowa (-24 ½)
(398) Northwestern (-19 ½)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fargo's CFB SATURDAY UNDERDOG TRIFECTA (PERFECT 2-0 IN $)
Mississippi and Alabama played one of the more entertaining games last Saturday and the Rebels were able to hold off a late charge from the Tide to win by six points. The Rebels were outgained however and were very fortunate on a 66-yard touchdown pass that really changed the flow of the game. Mississippi moved from No. 15 to No. 3 in the AP Poll which is a huge jump and all of this does is make them a public darling, thus an inflation of the line. Vanderbilt picked up its first win of the season over Austin Peay last week and while that can be considered unimpressive, looking back at its two losses tells us more. The Commodores lost to a very solid Western Kentucky team despite winning the yardage battle by 147 total yards. Next up, they faced Georgia and while losing by 17 points, they were outgained by just 22 yards against the Bulldogs. One reason for fading the Rebels here is the letdown factor and while it can be argued that they defeated Texas A&M last season after taking down Alabama, they were underdogs against the Aggies and now they are a massive chalk. Additionally, they have Florida on deck. Vanderbilt falls into a great situation where we play on road underdogs that average between 4.8 to 5.6 yppl going up against teams allowing between 4.2 to 4.8 yppl, after allowing 225 or less total yards in their previous game. This situation is 28-4 ATS (87.5 percent) over the last 10 seasons. 10* Play (343) Vanderbilt Commodores

Massachusetts won for us last week as it dropped a tough two-point game against Temple to fall to 0-2 on the season. While winning this game is unlikely, the Minutemen could not be in a better spot this week. Massachusetts has had a rough start to its FBS career as it is 5-32 but showed drastic improvements last season. The Minutemen lost five games by a touchdown or less and they bring back 19 starters from last season and are the most experienced team in the nation. While Massachusetts will be amped up to be playing here, Notre Dame could probably care less about this game. Coming off a big upset win over Georgia Tech and with Clemson on deck, the injury riddled Fighting Irish want nothing more than to shorted this came and come away without any further injuries. It is no secret that Notre Dame is a huge public betting favorite which means linesmakers have to inflate their lines in games like these so it comes as no surprise that the Fighting Irish are 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games as favorites between 21.5 and 31 points. And talk about a letdown, they are 0-7 ATS when laying double-digits following an outright win as a dog. Massachusetts is on the opposite side of things as it gets bigger lines than it probably should and despite a 3-11 record since the start of last season, it is 9-5 against the number. 10* Play (365) Massachusetts Minutemen

California got away with one last week as it defeated Texas on a shanked extra point with just over a minute remaining to move to 3-0 on the season. The Golden Bears were actually outgained by 102 total yards last week against the Longhorns as the defense allowed a whopping 650 yards after Texas gained 440 yards in its first two games combined. That shows how bad the California defense really is and we expect it to get lit up again. Washington is off to a 2-1 start including an impressive win over Utah St. last week. The Huskies offense has been average but facing California will be a quick cure. The defense is the story however as Washington leads the Pac 12 in total defense while being ranked 13th in the country. The Golden Bears have a very potent offense so it will not be an easy task but at this point of the season, I do not think California is a better team than Washington but the linesmakers are saying that the Golden Bears are more than a touchdown better on a neutral field. Here, we play against road favorites of 3.5 to 10 points in a game involving two teams that are outgaining opponents by 100 or more ypg, after gaining 6.25 or more yppl in their previous game. This situation is 46-17 ATS (73 percent) since 1992. California is 4-21 ATS in its last 25 games as a road favorite of seven points or less. 10* Play (404) Washington Huskies

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Shively


BIG 12 Game of the Year WINNER

Texas Tech +8.5


This is Texas Tech's Super Bowl so-to-speak. After TCU ran the score up on them 82-27 last year, The Red Raiders have had this game circled on their calendar for a long time. Texas Tech is playing with confidence and momentum after beating Arkansas last week. Quarterback Patrick Mahomes gives the Red Raiders offense a legit running threat along with his arm that makes this air raid offense much more dynamic. Mahomes has 4 rushing TD's on the season and has 129 yards on the ground. He has an offense loaded with juniors and seniors. The offensive line is very experienced. The Red Raiders have 4 receivers that have 10 or more receptions through the first 3 games. HC Kliff Kingsbury is 3-1 ATS as a homedog with Texas Tech. He had covers at home last year vs. Oklahoma and West Virginia. In 2013, Texas Tech beat TCU at home, 20-10 as a 3 point homedog. Texas Tech returns 17 starters total this season. They have a much more experienced defensive line and secondary. I know their offense can trade blows with TCU, but it will be their defense that makes the difference in this game. TCU is not as good as advertised. The losses on defense have been huge for this team. TCU lost 6 starters from last year's team. Now they are down 7 starters after junior cornerback Ranthony Texada went out last week. There are 4 other TCU starters that have not played this season. (Iloka, Douglas, Pierson, and McFarland). This TCU defense gave up 508 yards to SMU last week on their home field. Looking at the TCU defense that played Ole Miss in last year's bowl game and the TCU team that will be playing Texas Tech this week, it's possible that they will have 10 different players than who started against Ole Miss in the bowl game. TCU is not a good road team. Last year they only beat West Virginia by 1 point and only beat Kansas by 4 points. Since coming to the BIG 12, TCU is 2-7 ATS as a road favorite, including a close 23-17 win this season @ Minnesota whose offense is sub-par at best. This is a huge revenge game for Texas Tech like I noted earlier. This is a high-powered offense that is catching a TCU team that probably has the most key defensive injuries in college football. It will be too much for them to overcome. Take Texas Tech this Saturday afternoon.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Shively


10* UPSET Shocker of the Year

Arizona +4


This is a triple revenge game for HC Rich Rod and his Arizona Wildcats. This is RIch Rod's 4th year coaching Arizona and he has yet to beat UCLA. I make note of this because I feel that this is a game that he has had circled on the calendar. This is Arizona's first conference game and it is an important one. Head coach Rodriguez has 6 wins over ranked conference opponents over the last 3 years and is a PERFECT 4-0 ATS as a homedog the last 3 years. Arizona played a cupcake last week in Northern Arizona. They won the game 77-13 and got to get some of their players some rest in the 4th quarter with the game already won, so they will be fresh for this game. Through the first 3 games of the season Anu Solomon, the quarterback, has 10 TD/ 0 INT. Nick Wilson is one of the premier running backs in the PAC 12. Arizona has 4 receivers that can all make plays. Some big and tall, some are short and fast. This offense is well balanced and that's why they are ranked 6th in the country with 584 ypg. They have a senior punter and a senior kicker, both of whom are good. For the Arizona defense, this is an experienced defensive line that is quick up front. All reports say that Scooby Wright should be ready to play in this game also. Wright is coming off an injury but trainers and the coaches say they are optimistic. Wright was PAC 12 defensive player of the year last season. It will be an added bonus if Wright does play this game. For UCLA, this will be freshman Josh Rosen's first PAC 12 game and it's on the road. Rosen showed his youth last week throwing 3 interceptions. He now has 4 interceptions on the season compared to 5 touchdowns. This is a tough environment for him to be in on Saturday night. I expect the freshman to make some 'freshman' mistakes. UCLA lost one of their starting cornerbacks to injury this week, Fabian Morneau. He led the team is pass break ups last year. That makes 2 starters now gone on this defense. I will also note that UCLA receiver Jordan Payton left practice Tuesday with an ankle injury. Reports say he should be ready for Saturday's game, but I have to question if he will be 100%. Take Arizona to get the cover on Saturday night.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jason Sharpe


7* App St -8 (Game of the Year)

4* Texas +3
4* Massachusetts +29
3* S. Miss +22
3* Conn +7

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Doc Sports


7* Okla St
4* Michigan
4* Vanderbilt
4* New Mexico
4* UTSA

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman


6* Ohio +10.5
5* Texas Tech +7
4* Arizona +3.5
4* Texas A&M -7
4* Bowling Green -2.5
3* New Mexico -3
3* Washington +3.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges


DOUBLE PLAY:

•Appalachian St. -8 Old Dominion



SINGLE PLAYS:

•Texas Tech +6.5 TCU

•Arkansas State +7 Toledo

•Iowa -25 North Texas

•Arkansas +7 Texas A&M

•Georgia Tech -7.5 Duke

•Wet Virginia -16.5 Maryland

•Houston -16.5 Texas State

•Missouri +2.5 Kentucky

•So. Mississippi 22 Nebraska

•Nevada PICK Buffalo

•E. Carolina +10 Virginia Tech

•Umass +28.5 Notre Dame

•N. C. St. -17 So. Alabama

•San Jose -4.5 Fresno St.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club


[318] Nebraska -22
[360] Minnesota -10.5
[393] Oklahoma State -3
[395] USC -5.5
[405] Fresno State +4.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Wayne Root

Pinnacle
sec game of year
arkansas

inner circle
underdog game of month
texas

more coming

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Harris

8* NCAAF Total of the Tear


TCU / Texas Tech over 80.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux


20* Florida Atlantic -10
10* Massachusetts/Notre Dame over 58.5
10* Oklahoma State/Texas over 58.5
10* Penn State -13.5
10* Arkansas State +8
10* Missouri +3
10* Central Michigan +28
10* Appalachian State -7.5
10* Ohio State -31

[Can'tPickAWinner]

marc lawrence

late phones gom 5* ARIZONA

playbook dataplay texas tech

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Goodfella 3*

PAC12 total of the month

Arizona/UCLA over

[Can'tPickAWinner]

KING CREOLE 3***
Over 81.5 for TCU