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Re: 12-12-08
indiancowboy
We had a rough day yesterday and my apologies for it. I stayed up through the night and reworked my math formulas as I believe I focused far too much on public percentages. Consequently, the research and write-ups you will notice will be and are different. I have consequently adjusted my spreadsheets to reflect that. We will bounce-back like we always do and we will do it steadily over the course of the next few days and in particular I'm looking forward to the NFL on Sunday and I'm resaerching all of the bowl games right now. You have been sent all NFL Selections for the week on Thursday. You will get all bowl selections through the Championship on December 18th for your convenience.
(POD) Take LA. Clippers +9.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (Friday @ 10pm est). I understand that Portland comes off a tough loss at Utah, but this is a lot of points here for the Clippers. Portland has beat this team the last three times they have faced them – all three of those games were last year and they covered two of those three games. Portland has missed their last five covers while the Clippers come off a tough loss to the Magic at home. The Clippers have not lost back to back covers over the last seven games. What has changed for the Clippers? How about Z. Randolph and Baron Davis being a great tandem. With Randolph, Davis, Camby, Thornton and Gordon, this team has a sound group. They covered at Houston, Dallas and Minnesota and I think they have a great shot at covering today. Remember, Portland even when they win have not been blowing teams out and are not the type of team to put up over a 100 points as they have done it just twice over the last seven games. We will know early if the Clippers are going to lay down this game, but they do have veteran play and size and do come off a tough loss, so I like them to do well here. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as Underdogs and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these two teams.
Take Over 200 between Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons (Friday @ 8pm est). Both these teams come off frustrating losses. The total is set at an even 200. Detroit beat this team 100-94 earlier at home this year as Indiana covered that game and it went over the posted total at 188. Something interesting about Indiana is that when they cover games they usually go over. Such is the case for the last 4 of 5 games as when they cover on the road, games usually have a tendency to go over. Now, will they cover here? I'm not sure. But, they have every incentive to cover given that they come off a loss at Toronto where they only put up 88 points. Combine that with the fact that the Pistons come off 3 very tough road losses to the likes of Washington, NY and Philly at home, this team is reeling for a big win. Therefore, both teams have the incentive to force this game over. Either, Indiana by an active dog or Detroit by a blowout win. Notice that the first time these two teams met, the total was set at 188 and this team it is set at 200 and it is no accident for the 12 point jump. The over is 5-1 for the Pistons when facing teams with a wining % of less than .400 and the over is 5-1 for the Pacers when they are dogs by 5 to 9.5 points.
Take Over 201.5 Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (Friday @ 8pm est). Memphis has won back to back games including defeating the Rockets at home and coming back to beat OKC on the road. If you notice both of those games, their young guns were shooting the ball very well and it is obvious that their offense has taken a new spring especially when they blewout a defensive team such as the Rockets. The Bulls come off wins against NY and Washington at home but did struggle against the Bucks on the road. They did however win against Philly, Utah and GS on the road outright. I can see this side going either way as Chicago remembers their last road contest which was a loss as they have been exchanging road wins and road losses of late. Chicago beat this team 96-86 back in early November so this is revenge game for Memphis hence this explains why the line is so low. I can see Memphis winning this game outright, hence, the short lay. Consequently, with an active small dog, let's roll with the over. I believe Memphis will shoot for about 105-115 here considering they were able to put up similar numbers against Houston and look for Chicago to be active as they lost their last road contest. The over is 7-1 for the Bulls when they are small favorites of late and the over is 7-1 for the impoved Grizzly offense of late as well.
Take Iowa State +8.5 over Iowa (Friday @ 8:05pm est.) Iowa State is 6-2 and Iowa is 8-2. These two teams have gone back and forth consistently over the last few years with Iowa State winning last time 56-47 at home. Iowa State comes off a tough loss to Drake at home as a -4 point chalk and Iowa comes off a big win over Northern Iowa at home easily covering the spread. Sure, it would be great taking Iowa here at home with revenge from last year, but with Iowa State coming off the home loss to Drake, I would not be surprised if they are more focused for this game and who knows, maybe they were looking ahead to this game all along and that was part of the reason why they lost at home to Drake. The total will be very low in this game indicating that it will be great to take the 8.5 points on a game that is expected to be low scoring. Tack on the fact that the Cyclones have covered this contest the last four years and Iowa State coming off a home loss, I like their focus here for this game. The Cyclones are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Big 10, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 contests and Iowa State is 4-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
indiancowboy
We had a rough day yesterday and my apologies for it. I stayed up through the night and reworked my math formulas as I believe I focused far too much on public percentages. Consequently, the research and write-ups you will notice will be and are different. I have consequently adjusted my spreadsheets to reflect that. We will bounce-back like we always do and we will do it steadily over the course of the next few days and in particular I'm looking forward to the NFL on Sunday and I'm resaerching all of the bowl games right now. You have been sent all NFL Selections for the week on Thursday. You will get all bowl selections through the Championship on December 18th for your convenience.
(POD) Take LA. Clippers +9.5 over Portland Trail Blazers (Friday @ 10pm est). I understand that Portland comes off a tough loss at Utah, but this is a lot of points here for the Clippers. Portland has beat this team the last three times they have faced them – all three of those games were last year and they covered two of those three games. Portland has missed their last five covers while the Clippers come off a tough loss to the Magic at home. The Clippers have not lost back to back covers over the last seven games. What has changed for the Clippers? How about Z. Randolph and Baron Davis being a great tandem. With Randolph, Davis, Camby, Thornton and Gordon, this team has a sound group. They covered at Houston, Dallas and Minnesota and I think they have a great shot at covering today. Remember, Portland even when they win have not been blowing teams out and are not the type of team to put up over a 100 points as they have done it just twice over the last seven games. We will know early if the Clippers are going to lay down this game, but they do have veteran play and size and do come off a tough loss, so I like them to do well here. The Clippers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as Underdogs and the road team is 4-1 ATS in the last five games between these two teams.
Take Over 200 between Indiana Pacers @ Detroit Pistons (Friday @ 8pm est). Both these teams come off frustrating losses. The total is set at an even 200. Detroit beat this team 100-94 earlier at home this year as Indiana covered that game and it went over the posted total at 188. Something interesting about Indiana is that when they cover games they usually go over. Such is the case for the last 4 of 5 games as when they cover on the road, games usually have a tendency to go over. Now, will they cover here? I'm not sure. But, they have every incentive to cover given that they come off a loss at Toronto where they only put up 88 points. Combine that with the fact that the Pistons come off 3 very tough road losses to the likes of Washington, NY and Philly at home, this team is reeling for a big win. Therefore, both teams have the incentive to force this game over. Either, Indiana by an active dog or Detroit by a blowout win. Notice that the first time these two teams met, the total was set at 188 and this team it is set at 200 and it is no accident for the 12 point jump. The over is 5-1 for the Pistons when facing teams with a wining % of less than .400 and the over is 5-1 for the Pacers when they are dogs by 5 to 9.5 points.
Take Over 201.5 Chicago Bulls @ Memphis Grizzlies (Friday @ 8pm est). Memphis has won back to back games including defeating the Rockets at home and coming back to beat OKC on the road. If you notice both of those games, their young guns were shooting the ball very well and it is obvious that their offense has taken a new spring especially when they blewout a defensive team such as the Rockets. The Bulls come off wins against NY and Washington at home but did struggle against the Bucks on the road. They did however win against Philly, Utah and GS on the road outright. I can see this side going either way as Chicago remembers their last road contest which was a loss as they have been exchanging road wins and road losses of late. Chicago beat this team 96-86 back in early November so this is revenge game for Memphis hence this explains why the line is so low. I can see Memphis winning this game outright, hence, the short lay. Consequently, with an active small dog, let's roll with the over. I believe Memphis will shoot for about 105-115 here considering they were able to put up similar numbers against Houston and look for Chicago to be active as they lost their last road contest. The over is 7-1 for the Bulls when they are small favorites of late and the over is 7-1 for the impoved Grizzly offense of late as well.
Take Iowa State +8.5 over Iowa (Friday @ 8:05pm est.) Iowa State is 6-2 and Iowa is 8-2. These two teams have gone back and forth consistently over the last few years with Iowa State winning last time 56-47 at home. Iowa State comes off a tough loss to Drake at home as a -4 point chalk and Iowa comes off a big win over Northern Iowa at home easily covering the spread. Sure, it would be great taking Iowa here at home with revenge from last year, but with Iowa State coming off the home loss to Drake, I would not be surprised if they are more focused for this game and who knows, maybe they were looking ahead to this game all along and that was part of the reason why they lost at home to Drake. The total will be very low in this game indicating that it will be great to take the 8.5 points on a game that is expected to be low scoring. Tack on the fact that the Cyclones have covered this contest the last four years and Iowa State coming off a home loss, I like their focus here for this game. The Cyclones are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Big 10, the underdog is 5-2 ATS in the last 7 contests and Iowa State is 4-1 ATS coming off a straight up loss.
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