10-15-15

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NHL

Hot teams
-- Predators won first three games, allowing two goals.
-- Senators won two of first three games.
-- Chicago won two of its last three games.
-- Montreal started season with 4-0 road trip, allowing six goals. Rangers won three of their first four games.
-- Lightning won three of first four games; Dallas Stars won two of their first three.
-- Florida won two of its first three games.
-- St Louis won two of its first three games.
-- Coyotes won first three games, outscoring opponents 10-2. SMinnesota won its first two games, 3-2/5-4.

Cold teams
-- Islanders lost two of first three games.
-- Pittsburgh lost first three games, outscored 8-3.
-- Washington split its first two games, both at home.
-- Buffalo lost two of its first three games.
-- Edmonton lost first three games (all on road), outscored 9-3.

Series records
-- Islanders won their last three games with Nashville.
-- Penguns are 5-3 in last eight games with Ottawa; four of last five went OT/SO.
-- Blackhawks lost last three games with Washington.
-- Rangers-Montreal split last ten games (home side 6-4).
-- Lightning won five of last six games with Dallas.
-- Panthers won seven of last eight games with Buffalo.
-- Blues won their last seven games with Edmonton.
-- Wild won seven of last eight games with Arizona.

Totals
-- Nashville's first three games all stayed under the total.
-- Ottawa's last three visits to Pittsburgh stayed under.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in Chicago games this season.
-- Under is 3-0-1 in last four Ranger-Montreal games.
-- Over is 7-1 in last eight Dallas-Tampa Bay games.
-- Under is 5-3-1 in last nine Buffalo-Florida games.
-- Over is 5-2 in last seven St Louis-Edmonton games.
-- Under is 4-1-1 in last six Minnesota-Arizona games.

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StatFox Super Situations

MLB | NY METS at LA DODGERS
Play On - Any team (NY METS) after 3 straight games where they stranded 5 or less runners on base, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.00 over his last 3 starts
67-37 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.4% | 30.5 units )
10-11 this year. ( 47.6% | -2.1 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | NY METS at LA DODGERS
NY METS are 73-52 (+36.0 Units) against the money line in Road games in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
The average score was: NY METS (4.8) , OPPONENT (3.9)

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Mighty Quinn

Mighty hit with the Blue Jays on Wednesday and likes the Mets on Thursday.

The deficit is 888 sirignanos.

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Hondo

Hondo’s no Saint backer

The Astros, unable to shake off one of the worst losses in baseball history, were obliterated by the Royals Wednesday night, which caused Hondo’s deficit to grow to 1,472 van brocklins.

Thursday: Mr. Aitch will take flight with the Dirty Birds at the Superdome — 20 units on the Saints to go marching on to another loss.

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Ezwinners

2* (109) ucla +7

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Brian Leonard

Bryan Leonard's ESPN SEC Showdown

106 Auburn at KentuckyIn our memory we can’t come up with a team that has had as much of a collapse as these Tigers. Thought by many to be a major contender for the national title along with one of the strongest coaching staffs in recent memory. This is a team that has yet to cover a number having lost to the spread by a combined 70 points in five games. The Tigers have been out gained in all but one contest, including last time out against San Jose State. If Auburn didn’t have a +4 turnover edge in that game the Tigers would have lost to a Mountain West Conference team at home. A major reason for the struggles has been the inability to move the ball down the field on a consistent basis. Despite being favored in all but one FBS game this team has allowed 7 more explosive plays than they earned. On the season in FBS games Auburn has yet to have a drive of 80 or more yards. This offense can’t be trusted in the road favorite role.
Kentucky had a major scare before the break needing overtime to beat Eastern Kentucky. While it was an obvious look ahead spot with a bye on deck we will stack up the Wildcats work against the Tigers any day. Keep in mind this team lost the turnover battle to Florida and still only lost by 5, being out gained by just 4 yards. The Wildcats also won on the road at South Carolina and beat Missouri. Kentucky is the better team right now as the stats obviously prove. Don’t let the names on the uniforms cost you a money making play on Thursday.
PLAY KENTUCKY

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King Creole

NFL Thursday Night 3*** 'Big Easy' TOTALS PLAY Winner from King Creole

Atlanta Falcons @ New Orleans Saints 8:25pm ET /#104

3*** Play on: UNDER the TOTAL

*Optimum OU Line: 51 or more points

This NFC South Division series has skewed toward LOW-SCORING results as off late, with FOUR of the last five meetings going UNDER the Total. Average OU line when the Saints play the Falcons has been 53.5. Average combined points per game: 44.2. That means the average game has gone UNDER by more than a full touchdown (-9.3 ppg). It also helps our case when we see that the SAINTS have gone 0-3 O/U in their last three THURSDAY games with an average of only 34.7 points per game. And ATLANTA has gone 0-3 O/U in their THURSDAY road games, with an average of only 36.7 points per game. Numerous other team trends also point to a low-scoring outcome:
NEW ORLEANS has gone 2-10 O/U when playing off a SU loss of more than (>) 10 points… 2-11 O/U when playing with division revenge (lost to Atlanta 30-14 late last season), including 1-6 O/U at home… 1-5 O/U after allowing 250 > passing yards in their last game… and 0-4 O/U at home versus opponents with a winning road record.
ATLANTA has gone 0-4 O/U in their last four DIVISION games… 0-3 O/U as road favorites of 5 < points… 2-6 O/U away off back-to-back home games… 1-6 O/U in the month of October… 1-6 O/U in their last seven games versus LOSING teams (< .500)… and 2-6 O/U off an ATS loss.
The road team is favored in this NFC South Divisional battle…
1-8 O/U last three years: All NFC SOUTH DIVISION games in which the road team is favored… and the OU line is more than (>) 40 points (Falcons @ Saints).
This is currently tied for the HIGHEST Over / Under line of the season for THURSDAY games (NEng vs Pit in Week One was also 51 points and went UNDER). In division battles with a high OU Line, we always want to ‘Go Low’…
NFL DIVISION games played on a THURSDAY (Falcons @ Saints) have gone UNDER the Total 90% of the time (1-9 O/U) when the OU line is 49 or more points. Average combined points in these games has been 42.9.
The Saints just allowed 39 points in their Sunday road loss to the Philadelphia Eagles…
0-8 O/U last 12 months: All NFL home underdogs of > 1 point (Saints) after allowing 38 > points in their last ROAD game.
For Atlanta, they’re off a home win (but an ATS loss) against the Redskins, in a game that also went Under the Total…
5-17-1 O/U since 2000: All DIVISION teams… off a SU win BUT an ATS loss as a favorite of -7 > pts (Falcons) that also sent Under the Total. These games have gone 1-10 O/U for favorites of > 2 pts (like Atlanta).
The Falcons are one of only SIX unbeaten teams left in the league. I wrote about the OU tendencies for these unbeaten teams in this week’s Playbook Totals Tipsheet newsletter…
1-7 O/U since 1997: All GAME SIX undefeated teams (Atlanta) versus a division opponent (New Orleans) when the OU line is 57 < points. These game have gone a PERFECT 0-5 O/U if that undefeated team is a favorite (like the Falcons).

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Jim Feist

Jim Feist's NHL 3-Team Powerhouse Pounder - Thursday!

10/15 7:05 PM NHL (1) NASHVILLE PREDATORS VS (2) NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Take: (2) NEW YORK ISLANDERS

Reason: Nashville is cooking at 3-0, but hold on now...the Predators are 1-5 in their last 6 road games. They head to New York to take on a talented Islanders squad. John Tavares had a power-play goal and added two assists and the Islanders beat the Winnipeg Jets 4-2 on Monday afternoon to earn their first victory in Brooklyn. Thomas Greiss made 22 saves and the Islanders. The Home team is 10-3 in the last 13 meetings and the Predators are 2-5 in the last 7 meetings in New York. Play New York!


10/15 9:05 PM NHL (13) ST. LOUIS BLUES VS (14) EDMONTON OILERS

Take: (13) ST. LOUIS BLUES

Reason: Edmonton got the top pick in the draft but they still can't stop anyone, off a 4-2 loss at Dallas. The offense hasn't got going, either, ranked 27th in goals scored. The Oilers are on an 18-52 run, including 11-24 in their last 35 home games. St. Louis is in town with a strong team, Top 12 in goals scored and allowed. Blues rookie defenseman Colton Parayko scored his first two NHL goals -- including the winner -- to lead St. Louis to a 4-3 victory over the Calgary Flames. Calgary was held to 10 shots through 40 minutes. The Blues are 54-17 in their last 71 vs. a team with a losing record. Play St. Louis!


10/15 7:35 PM NHL (9) DALLAS STARS VS (10) TAMPA BAY LIGHTNING

Take: 10-Star Total Dominator: Dallas/Tampa Bay Over the total.

A pair of young, fast skating uptempo offensive teams clash. Dallas is on a 7-3 run over the total, including 4-1 over on the road. Tampa Bay is 47-20-1 over the total in the Lightning's last 68 vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. And when these teams meet the over is 4-0, as well as 4-0 over at this arena. Play Dallas/Tampa Bay over the total.

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Matt Fargo

Fargo's 10* NFL THURSDAY NIGHT ENFORCER (INSANE 12-1 PRIMETIME YTD)

10* (104) New Orleans Saints

The Falcons remained undefeated with an overtime win over Washington last Sunday and now they hit the road on short rest over their biggest rival that is in desperate need of a victory. Atlanta failed to cover for the first time this season last week and they are a road favorite here for the first time since 2012 and are a road favorite anywhere for the first time since last season. The Saints picked up their first win of the season two weeks ago in overtime against Dallas which snapped a six-game home losing streak but gave it back last week against the Eagles who were in a similar spot as they were in desperate need of a win, Predicting turnovers is next to impossible but the law of averages tend to even things out as the season progresses or in better terms, cuts down the true extrapolation. Basically, teams that are +5 in turnover margin are not likely going to finish +15 and teams -5 are not likely going to finish -15. That being said, these teams are on opposite ends of turnover margin as the Falcons are +5 and the Saints are -5 and the records are reflective of this. And because of those records, lines are affected and we are seeing that here. This also works on a game-by-game basis as the Saints have a favorable situation on their side as we play against favorites after a game where they committed three or more turnovers going up against an opponent after a game where they committed four or more turnovers. This situation is 35-11 ATS (76.1 percent) over the last 10 seasons. Additionally, the Falcons are 6-23 ATS in their last 29 games after gaining 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games and while the Saints have struggled at home against poor teams, going back, they are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 home games against teams with a winning road record.

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Bookieshunter

BOOKIESHUNTER'S NFL THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAME OF THE MONTH (78% RUN IN TOP PLAYS - 7-1 LAST WEEK IN NFL)

3*Atlanta Falcons -3

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From Platinum Plays.
500K Pac12 Lock/Month

the Stanford Cardinal -6½ over
the UCLA Bruins
Best Bets
the New Orleans Saints +3½ over
the Atlanta Falcons
the Kentucky Wildcats +2½ over
the Auburn Tigers
the Western Kentucky/North Texas Game OVER
the Total Of 70 Points
the LA Dodgers w/Greinke -150 over
the NY Mets

PLATINUM PLAYS PREMIER PICK

the Auburn/Kentucky Game OVER
the Total Of 52 Points

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Totals 4 You "Total Domination" for Thursday, October 15th

2015 NFC South Division TV Total of the Year!!!!!
Atlanta/New Orleans under 51 1/2


NCAA Best Bets
Auburn/Kentucky over 52
Western Kentucky/North Texas under 70
UCLA/Stanford under 54

2015 MLB Divisional Series Total of the Year!!!!!
New York/Los Angeles under 6
Best of Luck and Thank You!!!!!

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Football Crusher
Western Kentucky + North Texas OVER 70
(System Record: 13-1, lost last game)
Overall Record: 13-15-1

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Baseball Crusher
Los Angeles Dodgers + New York Mets OVER 6
(System Record: 92-4, lost last game)
Overall Record: 92-86-3