10-17-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Pretty good match up in Athens on Saturday as Ohio University brings their 5-1 record into a home MAC tilt with 2-3 Western Michigan. Ohio HC Frank Solich has endured a couple of disappointing years at Ohio, but this year’s version of the Bobcats looks like one of his best to date. The only thing keeping them from being undefeated is a tough 27-24 loss at Minnesota and they have been very impressive in wins over Marshall and Akron. The Broncos played their traditionally difficult early season schedule, dropping games to both Michigan State and Georgia Southern, but are 1-0 in conference with a victory over CMU 41-39 last week. We do understand that the Broncos are an impressive 5-1 against the number in their last six meetings with the Bobcats, but we really believe this is a quality Ohio football team that is going to be very tough to handle at home with revenge on their minds. Last year, WMU beat the Bobcats 42-21 in a game that really wasn’t even that close. Both of these offenses are pretty good, although we would certainly give the edge there to the visitors. However, the defensive side of the football is where we believe this game will be won. Western is giving up almost 36 PPG and 446 yards of offense, while Ohio’s defense has been tremendous in the early season, holding their opponents to just 15.7 PPG. This Ohio team has also been really solid against the number lately, especially at home, where they are 5-1 in their last six games. Make no mistake, we believe this will be a pretty tight game throughout, but we see a 7-10 point Ohio win at the end and really like this spot for Solich and the Bobcats. The Sharps say…

3 Units – Ohio University (-4)

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Andy Iskoe

CFB Best Bet - Michigan State +8.5

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M & M handicapping
4* azst +5
4* bama/a&m over 54
3* Louisville +7

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Rocketman Sports 3-Pack of CFB Winners Saturday! NOON ET!

Marshall @ Florida Atlantic 12:00 PM EST
Play On: 4* (#126) Florida Atlantic +4 1/2

The Marshall Thundering Herd travel to Florida Atlantic to take on the Owls on Saturday afternoon. Marshall is 36-62 ATS since 1992 when playing on the road. Florida Atlantic is 12-4 ATS last 3 years as an underdog. Florida Atlantic is allowing only 17 points per game against conference opponents this year. Marshall is averaging only 7 points per game on the road at the half this year. Looking for them to get off to another slow start here today. We'll play Florida Atlantic to pull the upset here today for 4 units! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Western Michigan @ Ohio 12:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#153) Western Michigan +5

The Western Michigan Broncos travel to Ohio to take on the Bobcats on Saturday afternoon. Western Michigan is 2-3 SU overall this year while Ohio comes in with a 5-1 SU record this season. Western Michigan is averaging 282.8 yards per game passing this year. Ohio is 2-6 SU and 1-7 ATS last 3 years after a win against a conference opponent. Western Michigan is scoring 35 points per game their past 3 games overall, 32.2 points per game on turf this season and 41 points per game against conference opponents. Western Michigan is 5-1 ATS overall vs Ohio since 1992. We'll play Western Michigan for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

Ole Miss @ Memphis 12:00 PM EST
Play On: 3* (#205) Ole Miss -10 1/2

The Ole Miss Rebels travel to Memphis to take on the Tigers on Saturday afternoon. Ole Miss is 5-1 SU overall this year while Memphis is 5-0 SU on the season. Ole Miss is averaging 339.5 yards per game passing and 527.8 total yards per game. Memphis is allowing 306.8 yards per game passing and 438.4 total yards per game. Ole Miss is 31-13 ATS last 44 games played on artificial turf. Ole Miss is 10-3 ATS last 3 years in non-conference games. Memphis is 12-28 ATS last 40 games after 2 or more consecutive wins. Ole Miss is scoring 46.8 points per game overall this year and 57 points per game in their 4 games on turf this year. Memphis is allowing 34.7 points per game their past 3 games overall. The difference here will be defense. Ole Miss will light it up. We'll play Ole Miss for 3 units today! Thanks and good luck, Rocky

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goodfella

3* wash.st

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stephen nover
3* texas am

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Greg shaker

3* ohio st over 48.

2* north Carolina over 47.5

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Sleepyj

3* Washington st -8

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Jason Sharpe



5 Unit Play Take #187 Charlotte +5.5 over Old Dominion (3:30pm est):

Were getting points here with a Charlotte team I think could be the better of these two teams overall. The 49ers have been better than most expected this year as they joined Conference USA and the FBS. They have a solid defense that held Florida Atlantic to under 200 yards of offense a few weeks ago. They gave a very good Temple team a scare in their last game as they trailed by only a 10-3 score at halftime. Temple was also coming off a bye the previous week, a major edge this time of the year for one team over another and that edge played out late as Temple seemed to wear the 49ers down in the 2nd half. Charlotte had all sorts of things go against them in their first game of the season at Georgia State but still managed to get the win 23-20 in that contest.
Old Dominion started the season off 2-0 but one of those wins was a struggle against FCS foe Norfolk State and the other victory was over Eastern Michigan in the season opener. EMU had things under control in their game until things fell apart in the final quarter as they lost their starting quarterback for the game and the backup came in and played poorly as the +3 turnover differential was huge in the Monarchs 4 point win over EMU. This was suppose to be a rebuilding year for ODU due to the fact they were losing one of the most valuable players in CFB for any one team in Taylor Heinicke but his loss has been even bigger than most expected as his replacement Shuler Bentley has struggled in his place as he comes in with a completion percentage at just 50% and averaging less than 140 yards passing per game so far.
I think we may have the better of the two teams here so getting these points is an added bonus. Take Charlotte plus the points in this one.



5 Unit Play Take #189 Vanderbilt +2.5 over South Carolina (4:00pm est):

I like how this game lines up for Vanderbilt as they come in off a bye week last week and face a South Carolina team who has to be tired especially on the defensive side of the football. The Gamecocks defense is off a punishing contest last week against LSU where the Tigers rushed the ball over 50 times against them. The other big news with South Carolina is the sudden unexpected announcement by their head coach Steve Spurrier that he was calling it quits right now. There's just no way this team could have had a good week of practice with this big distraction looming over them. At 2-4 on the season and with next weekend being a bye week, I think a lot of the South Carolina players may have checked out mentally coming into this contest.
That won't be the case for Vanderbilt who should be mentally and physically refreshed after having last weekend off. The Commodores have faced a very difficult schedule thus far and they've brought a solid effort into every game this season despite being only 2-3 overall. They should have won their opening game against what now looks like a very good Western Kentucky team but were done in by a huge -3 turnover differential in the 2 point loss. The other two defeats were good efforts against two very strong opponents Georgia and Ole Miss. This looks like an up and coming team who is ready to take another step under their 2nd year head coach.
Take Vanderbilt here plus the points.



5 Unit Play Take #142 Northwestern +2 over Iowa (12:00pm est):

Northwestern not only comes in off an ugly loss last week but the Wildcats were also hammered by this Iowa team last year as well, losing 48-7 in Iowa so we have a Wildcats team looking for revenge and off an embarrassing outing as well. The home team has dominated in this series winning the last five games. Northwestern has had a great season overall as wins over both Stanford and Duke and those are the only two defeats that those teams have had thus far. Throw in a strong 27-0 shutout a few weeks ago over Minnesota into the mix as well and NW has beaten three top 30-40 teams thus far.
Iowa comes in undefeated at 6-0 this season but they've been very fortunate as well in a few of their games as they needed a 57 yard field goal to grab the win over Pittsburgh and they had a ton of things fall their way in a win over Wisconsin a few weeks back as well. The Hawkeyes came into this season just 19-19 the previous three seasons overall so they may be a bit overrated with their 6-0 start. Most would agree they've also had an easier than normal schedule thus far especially when compared to who Northwestern has had to play.
Take Northwestern plus the points here.



3 Unit Play Take #126 Florida Atlantic +6.5 over Marshall (12:00pm est):

Marshall got the 31-10 win last week over Southern Mississippi but it was the 3rd time already this season they had won a game they very easily could have loss. USM drove the ball up and down the field on the Thundering Herd defense but the -4 turnover differential was the key to the game for Marshall. Don't be fooled by their 5-1 record thus far as their wins have come against Purdue, Southern Mississippi, Kent State, Old Dominion and Norfolk State, all below average or worse teams.
Florida Atlantic has their starting quarterback Jaquez Johnson back and the Owls are a much better team with him running the show. Rice came back to beat them last week scoring two touchdowns in the last 7 minutes of the game. FAU has also lost a game to Buffalo earlier this season where they were without Johnson in the game and were -5 in turnovers but had 200 more yards of offense in the game.
Take Florida Atlantic plus the points here.



3 Unit Play Take #132 Middle Tennessee State -10.5 over Florida International (12:00pm est):

Middle Tennessee State has played a very difficult schedule this season and especially so here in the last three weeks as they went into Illinois, were home against Vanderbilt and then went back on the road at Western Kentucky. Those are three improved teams this year and though MTSU played well in two of those three games, they ended up going 0-3 overall. The good news is this keeps the Blue Raiders under the radar a bit here in this one against Florida International, a team they will be looking to get revenge against after handing them a 38-28 win last year where MTSU was a -4 in turnovers in the game.
FIU comes in off a thumping of UTEP last week but before that the Panthers had dropped their previous two games each by 10 points. Those games weren't as close as the final scores though as UMass had nearly 500 yards of offense against them while allowing less than 200 for the game. The big difference here in this game comes from the offensive side of things as MTSU averages over 300 yards a game passing and 452 yards on offense and did so against three very good defenses in Alabama, Vanderbilt and Illinois.
Take Middle Tennessee State here.



3 Unit Play Take #169 Pittsburgh +3.5 over Georgia Tech (12:30pm est):

Pittsburgh matches up well with this Georgia Tech team as the Panthers do a very good job of stopping the run. Pittsburgh is a physical team under 1st year head coach Pat Narduzzi. They are just one play away from being undefeated right now, losing a tough one in Iowa as the Hawkeyes nailed a long field goal for the win. They demoralized Virginia Tech earlier this season holding them to only 100 yards of offense in the game and then last week went on the road against what figured to be motivated and inspired Virginia squad off an ugly loss and bye week and yet the Panthers played well and still got the win in the game.
Georgia Tech looks exhausted as they play in their 5th straight tough game here. Things set up nicely for them last weekend as they were getting Clemson off a tough loss but the Yellow Jackets were crushed by the Tigers in the game. This is simply not a very good GT team right now and giving a team like Pitt this many points is too many.
Take Pittsburgh plus the points here.



3 Unit Play Take #163 Nebraska +2 over Minnesota (3:30pm est):

Give Minnesota credit as they responded in a big way last weekend after getting thrashed the previous week at Northwestern. The 41-13 victory over the Boilermakers looks like a nice win but that game was very close at the half as Purdue had out-gained the Gophers and trailed by only 4 points. Minnesota seemed to overpower Purdue at the line of scrimmage but there's still some big issues with this Gophers passing offense as it failed to throw for even 100 yards for the 2nd straight game. This comes into play in this game here as Nebraska has struggled at times on defense but most of their problems have stemmed from defending the pass. Minnesota has been ravaged with injuries up and down their roster and still look to be down quite a few quality players in this game.
The Cornhuskers have been hit hard this season with a ton of bad luck late in their games. All four of their losses came in games they very easily could have won. They lost their season opener on a BYU on a Hail Mary pass, they made a miracle comeback against Miami Florida only to lose the game in overtime, badly mis-managed the late game clock causing them to lose in the final seconds to Illinois and last weekend they allowed Wisconsin to drive down the field in the last minute of the game and beat them on a field goal. This is still a solid team that's played a difficult schedule and has hung in there in every game so far.
Look for an inspired effort and win here from Cornhuskers. Take Nebraska plus the points.



3 Unit Play Take #174 Michigan -7.5 over Michigan State (3:30pm est):

If these two teams had no past history to look at but instead were both known as just 'Team A' against 'Team B' and if you only had this season's worth of information to look at, Michigan would easily be favored by over two touchdowns here.
Michigan State is 6-0 straight up this season but are a hard to believe 0-6 against the spread. The Spartans have only out-gained their opponents by an average of 25 yards per game on the year as half of their wins have come by a touchdown or less. The odd thing about this is that it's been a very easy schedule thus far as not one of those six teams even has a winning record this year against FBS opponents and combined are a very ugly 7-20 (FBS games only). If it were not for their lofty preseason ranking Michigan State would be rated much lower this year based on the level of play we have seen from them so far. They've also had a big +8 in turnovers this season which is another reason their 0-6 ATS is a bit of a head scratcher.
Michigan has been truly awesome this year and it looks like they're getting getting better every week as well. They come into this game with three straight shutouts overall, two of which have come against top 25 ranked teams. The way that they have dominated their opponents from start to finish during this three game stretch is arguably the best three game stretch we've seen from any team this season in college football. This game is huge to the Wolverines as MSU has hammered them the last few years. Last season Michigan State coach Mark Dantonio rubbed it in as he had his team score a meaningless touchdown late in the 35-11 win over Michigan and then admitted doing so afterwards. You can be assured that Michigan has had this game circled on their schedules for a long time and not only want to win it badly but if given a chance to do so by a big margin as well.
Take Michigan minus the points here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

MIKE DAVIS




7-Unit Play. Take #190 South Carolina -2.5 over Vanderbilt (Saturday, October 17th at 4:00 pm)

There is a great deal of built-in value in this line and I am all over it. South Carolina is starting fresh as the OBC stepped down this week from the head coaching position. Shawn Elliot will be making his head coaching debut for the Gamecocks and he welcomes in a team South Carolina has dominated as of late. The Gamecocks have won 6 straight over Vandy and I look for them to add to that total Saturday. The line is low because Vandy has had a week off and two weeks to prepare for this game -- and b/c of the perceived tumultuous week at SC. But make no mistake about it, the SC players have to be challenged by Spurrier's decision and I look for a spirited effort in front of the home crowd. SC had to play last week's "home" game at LSU because of the flooding in the SC area. This will be their first true home game since Sept 26th vs. UCF. The talent advantage lies with South Carolina. The motivation and home field advantage lies with South Carolina. The Gamecocks get it done in impressive fashion.
Take South Carolina.



4-Unit Play. Take #162 LSU -7.5 over Florida (Saturday, October 17th at 7:00 pm)

I like the Bayou Bengals at home vs. the Gators in primetime. A tough week for Florida as they lost their starting QB to a PED suspension. This is a tough environment for a back-up Qb and the Gators will have a tough time generating offense at LSU at night. This is the toughest venue in all of college sports at night and LSU will be ready to make a statement on National TV. LSU hasn't played a great game this year but I look for that to change Saturday night. The Gators are traveling for the second week in a row and this time it will get ugly. LSU has only played one other "real" game this year in which they had to be ready for and that was as a 6.5 point favorite vs. Auburn. They won that game by 24 points. I look for a similar result in this ball game. Florida hasn't seen a running back like Fournette and he will make a couple of big plays. LSU wins at home in primetime.
Take LSU.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brad Wilton

250 Dime Double-Digit Blowout of the Year

Nevada

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INDIAN COWBOY

Soccer


3-Unit Play. Take Tottenham/Liverpool 'Over' 2.5 (-125) (7:45 a.m., Saturday, October 17) (English Premier League)

The early Premier League match is a contest I see being played at a high tempo. Both teams will be eying three points, and I think an attack-minded match is going to be the result. Look for both Spurs and the Reds to get on
the score sheet, and I think both will do well to score more than once at White Hart Lane. Play the 'over' between these two sides in North London.



3-Unit Play. Take Wolfsburg (-150) over Hoffenheim (8:30 a.m., Saturday, October 17) (German Bundesliga)

While there doesn't ever seem to be much payable value on German teams such as Munich and Dortmund, Wolfsburg continues to offer backers good money for value. Wolfsburg are undefeated in all four home matches this year in the Bundesliga with an impressive +6 goal difference in this matches. Hoffenheim have conceded 14 goals in their eight matches so far in the league and sit fourth to last in the table. Here are two different sides going in opposite directions this season. Play Wolfsburg this weekend.


3-Unit Play. Take St. Etienne (-175) over Ajaccio (2 p.m., Saturday, October 17) (French Ligue 1)


We've made it known how confident we are with French side St. Etienne when they play at home in the league. And for the most part this squad has come through for us over the years. Here is another spot we go back to the well with them. A sizable favorite, but for a good reason, we'll lay the juice with the superior team in this fixture. Last place Ajaccio is winless in their first nine games of the French league calendar. They've allowed seven away goals to just one scored, and I see them not being able to produce a result today as well. St. Etienne by multiple goals here.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

College Football Picks: Louisville at Florida State
October 16, 2015

By Greg Dempson

Louisville Cardinals at Florida State Seminoles –7.5

The last time Louisville defeated FSU on the road was way back in 1952 and a youngster by the name of Johnny Unitas was under center. In their most recent contest, the Cardinals lead Florida State 21–00 only to fall by a final score of 42–31 when hosting the “Noles” on October 30, 2014.

The Cardinals enter this contest off a bye week and they’ve certainly played well enough to actually be 5–0 rather than 3–2 straight up. I like the Cardinals for the possible upset in this early start as I note Florida State has had issues on defense the past two weeks allowing 783 yards and 46 first downs in their wins over Miami and Wake Forest.

Louisville’s three losses were decided by a combined 13 points and all three of those losses were to teams that are or were ranked, Auburn, Clemson and Houston.

View From the 50 Yard Line

– Florida State is 5–15 ATS their last 20 games while winning 10 straight games decided by 7 or less points.

– Louisville’s 11–00 ATS as an away dog the last four years with eight outright upsets.

– The last two seasons the Seminoles are 1–10 ATS after gaining 6.25 or more yards per play in their previous game.

– The Cardinals are 20–05 ATS, (on the road,) when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points.

– Head coach Fisher is 13–24 ATS after three or more consecutive straight up wins.

– Florida State is 5–14 ATS in all games the last two seasons.

– Louisville is 18–5 ATS in road games when off two or more consecutive unders since 1992

– Petrino is 46–26 ATS after one or more consecutive wins against the spread in all games he has coached since 1992.

– Play against all favorites of 3.5 to 10 points with a good rushing defense, (allowing 125 or less rushing yards per game,) after gaining 5.5 or more rushing yards per attempt in their last game. This system is 42–16 ATS = 72% when fading the Seminoles.

College Football Picks:

My EveryEdge Game of the Week is on the Louisville Cardinals at +7.5 points.

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BEST Football - Saturday 10* NCAA Biggie - Oct. 17
10* #173 Michigan State +7 over Michigan 2:30 PM CT

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Point Train's CFB Best Bet GOM - Saturday, October 17
9-Unit - #173 Michigan State (+7.5) over Michigan – 2:30 PM CST