11-7-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Strike Point Sports

3-Unit Play. Take #326 Purdue (+5) over Illinois (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)
Illinois has no business being favored in this game, let alone by five points. This Illinois offense is inept, and even with Purdue's less-than-stellar defense, they still won't be able to win this game. Purdue is looking to keep momentum rolling after putting up 55 points against Nebraska last weekend. The Boilermakers won't be home again until the end of November, so they will want to get this home win for their fans. I like the five-points in this one but I don't think they will be necessary. I see Purdue winning this game outright. Purdue has won eight of their last 10 games against Illinois S.U. and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between the two schools. Illinois has only covered the line once in their last five trips to Purdue. The home field advantage has always been extremely significant in this matchup. The sharp play is on the home dog here as Illinois is just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 road games. Take Purdue in this game.

7-Unit Play. Take #421 Michigan State (-5.5) over Nebraska (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)
Nebraska is just too banged up to keep this game close. I know that the Cornhuskers are an impressive home squad, but Michigan State is nearly as impressive on the road, as they are 18-7-1 ATS in their last 26 road games. Nebraska has a history of dominating in front of their home crowd, but that doesn't always pay out at the window. Don't be fooled. The Cornhuskers are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight home games and even worse, they are just 2-3 S.U. at home this season. Their only two wins came against South Alabama and an eight-point victory over Southern Miss. This is not the Nebraska team of last season. The revenge factor won't have much of an effect on this game as Nebraska just isn't good enough. Look for the Spartans to control both sides of the football and be able to score points quite easily. Michigan State's bye week was perfect. The time off, allowed the squad to get significant players healthy for the end of the season push. The Spartans are welcoming back offensive lineman Jack Conklin and Jack Allen, as well as running back Madre London. This is just a perfect spot for Michigan State. They are coming off a bye, they get a home game with Maryland next weekend so there is no look ahead, and they know they need to make a statement to move up from seventh for next weeks BCS rankings. Take the road favorite in this one as Michigan State rolls.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Vegas Sports Informer

4 Unit Play. Take #372 Tulsa -17 over UCF (12:00p.m., Saturday November 7)
This play is all on the play of the UCF Knights! UCF is 0-9 SU and 1-8 ATS and they have lost by double-digits in every road game this year. I told myself that I was playing Tulsa as long as the number wasn't -18 or higher and Saturday afternoon I see Tulsa running up the scoreboard against a bad UCF team. UCF has pretty much waived the white flag and this game will get ugly quick. Tulsa is coming a big road win last week against SMU winning 40-31 while UCF was embarrassed again and the Cincinnati Bearcats easily won 52-7. UCF is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games and the Knights are also 1-7 ATS following a SU loss. The home team in this series is 6-1 ATS and the favorite is also 7-1 ATS.

7 Unit Play. Take #381 Over 61 Iowa St at Oklahoma (7:00p.m., Saturday November 7 ESPNU)
Really wanted to play Oklahoma OVER last weekend against Kansas but was afraid Kansas wouldn't score points. Of course that game goes over as the Sooners offense blows up 62 points and the Jayhawks score a touchdown. (Ok stil a bit upset with Notre Dame last weekend) Last year the total was the same 61 and Oklahoma won 59-14 and I believe the Sooners offense is better then last year. Iowa St against conference opponents this year is averaging 28.2ppg and if I can get close to that number we should have no problem hitting this OVER. After the upset loss to Texas the Oklahoma Sooners offense has won 3-straight and the Sooners are averaging 60ppg and again we should have no problem cashing this ticket. Iowa St is 5-0-1 O/U following a SU win and the Oklahoma Sooners are 8-2 O/U against a team with a losing record. Oklahoma is also 22-8-1 O/U in their last 31 conference games.

4 Unit Play. Take #421 Michigan St -5.5 over Nebraska (7:00p.m., Saturday November 7 ESPN)
So Michigan St is a perfect 8-0 and two teams are ahead of them in the Playoff Rankings. Saturday night I see a pissed off Michigan St team and that will spell trouble for the Nebraska Cornhuskers. Nebraska has been sliding down the rankings in the Big Ten losers of 4 out of 5 games and the Huskers have dropped back-to-back home games. If Purdue QB threw for 4 touchdowns against Nebraska what is QB Connor Cook from Michigan St going to do to the secondary of Nebraska. Jump on this number NOW because wouldn't shock me to see Michigan St close a touchdown favorite Saturday night. The favorite in this series is 5-2 ATS and right now Michigan St is overall the better team on the field and on paper.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

River City Sharps

Pretty big game in Conference USA on Saturday as the 8-1 Marshall Thundering Herd travel into Murfreesboro to take on the 3-5 MTSU Blue Raiders. Here’s the deal…If you look at ATS trends, it would be difficult to make a case for the home team in this spot. Then you look at the line and the movement we have seen. The line opened at MTSU at -2 and has now pushed up to -3 for the home team. This seems a bit curious since Marshall is 8-1 on the season and can continue their momentum towards a C-USA regular season title with a road victory here. Dive into the numbers a bit further and you might be able to figure out why the Herd only has one loss on the season. Marshall has legitimately played one of the weakest schedules in all of FBS football and they have only one victory over a team with a winning record. Meanwhile, we have a 3-5 MTSU teams that has been significantly challenged this season, losing pretty good efforts vs. Alabama, Vanderbilt and Illinois. We have a revenge spot here for the Blue Raiders as Marshall destroyed them 49-24 last year in West Virginia. While the Herd have been very good under HC Doc Holiday, they have always been a pretty solid “play against” away from home and a much better team at home. They are just 38-62 ATS away from home going all the way back to 1992 and they didn’t cover in their only road test vs. a quality opponent (21-10 loss at Ohio) This Blue Raider offense is generating almost 50 PPG at home this season and coming off a pretty tough 45-16 loss at La Tech. So we have a team coming off a blowout loss and sitting at 3-5 on the season favored by a FG over an 8-1 conference leader. Vegas is begging you to back the road puppy here and we’re not buying it. We fully expect MTSU to play their most complete game of the year and handle the Herd this Saturday. The Sharps say…

3 Units – Middle Tenn State (-3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maddux

10* Maryland +13
10* Oklahoma -23.5
10* Iowa State/Oklahoma under 63
10* Middle Tennessee -1
10* Minnesota/Ohio State over 49.5
10* Louisiana Monroe/Troy under 56
10* LSU/Alabama under 52.5
10* Utah/Washington under 49.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

4* College Football False Favorite Play Of The Month!

Saturday
Play - Penn State (Game 359).



Edges - Nittany Lions: 13-4 SU in this series since PSU joined the Big Ten - favored 16 times (won SU only time as a dog); and head coach James Franklin 2-0 SUATS as a dog with rest. Wildcats: 0-3 ‘In The Stats’ last three games; and head coach Pat Fitzgerald is 2-13 ATS at home versus foe that allows less than 18.5 PPG, including 2-10 SU and 0-12 ATS if foe is not off a DD ATS loss. The clincher comes from our powerful database as it notes that college football road dogs from Game Ten out, off a shutout conference win in which they scored 32 or more points, are 18-0 ATS since 1980. With the Lions looking to avenge a 23-point home loss as 11-point favorites last year, we recommend a 4* play on Penn State. Thank you and good luck as always.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fat Jack


#331 TEXAS TECH +7.5
#338 INDIANA +7
#346 LOUISVILLE -13.5
#348 houston UNDER 74
#376 WASHINGTON -1
#412 OHIO STATE -24
#415 arizona state UNDER 67

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Late Phone Plays –

CFB - 4* Game 359 - Penn State (+2) - False Favorite GOM - 12 Noon ET start

CFB - 3* Game 347 - Cincinnati (+9)

CFB - 3* Game 422 - Nebraska (+6)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

Soccer


3-Unit Play. Take AS Roma/Lazio 'Over' 2.5 (-135) (9 a.m., Saturday, November 7) (Italian Serie A)

The Rome derby looks to be a good one with Roma and Lazio squaring off in the Stadio Olimpico on Saturday. Roma are coming off a very much needed victory in the Champions League earlier in the week. Now they'll look to give their supporters the most important win of the year against their tense city rival. Through the first eleven match of the Italian league, Roma have scored the most goals in the league with 25. Lazio have allowed the second most with 18. I think we'll see another high scoring match featuring these two clubs from the Italian capital. Play the 'over' between Roma and Lazio.


3-Unit Play. Take Leicester City (-125) over Watford (10 a.m., Saturday, November 7) (English Premier League)

Leicester City has already proven to be high value for their results so far in the Premier League this season. Not only have they been one of the more entertaining sides to watch as far as scoring goals and attacking pace, but at home this is advantageous spot for them against another newly promoted side in Watford. 22 points currently has them in 3rd place in the league, and this is another great opportunity to relish in and grab more points toward their ambitious and well-deserved start to the campaign. Watford haven't been as consistent, and I don't think they can slow the momentum of the home side.


3-Unit Play. Take Southampton (-135) over Sunderland (10 a.m., Saturday, November 7 (English Premier League)

The Saints are undefeated in their first five away matches in the league. Sunderland have been pretty much woeful in every match they've played since the schedule started in mid August. The Black Cats have conceded 25 times to just 13 scored, while Southampton have only let in four goals in those five away matches. I think the better result goes to the away team in Southampton. Hovering near Europe qualification for next season, they'll need every possible point to hang around the top third of the table going further into the season. I think this is a great chance for them to continue to build on their current fine form.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Alan Eastman

4-Unit Play. Take #337 Iowa (-7) over Indiana (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I'm going with the Hawkeyes here. This Iowa team is still underrated. They are ranked No. 9 in the first playoff polls. No one is giving this team a chance but they have a very real chance of making it into the top four this year. This Hawkeyes team has performed great on the road. They have won all three road games, blowing out Northwestern by 30 points and winning in Madison over Wisconsin. They also won by two touchdowns on the road over their rivals Iowa State. Indiana has lost four straight games. That includes an ugly loss to Rutgers three weeks ago when they blew a 25-point lead in the second half and a 19-point lead in the fourth quarter. This team is terrible defensively and Iowa will have no problem moving the ball and controlling the game. The Hawkeyes won this matchup 45-29 last year and I think that the score will be in the same ball park again this year. Play the Hawkeyes.


3-Unit Play. Take #346 Louisville (-14) over Syracuse (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I am going with Louisville in this one. Syracuse was overmatched at Florida State last week. That is the same FSU team that Louisville almost went on the road and beat. Syracuse will be overmatched in this one too. Bobby Petrino knows he has to keep winning games. He wants to get this team bowl eligible and will have his team motivated to beat a weaker opponent. Syracuse has been blown out at South Florida (45-24) and Florida State (45-21) and they also lost on the road against a weak Virginia team. Syracuse has been outgained in every game they've played this year against Div. I opponents. That includes Wake Forest and Central Michigan. Louisville has dominated this series in recent years. They have won four of the last five meetings going back to 2009. That includes an easy 28-6 effort last year on the road. Louisville is due for a big game from its offense and they will keep winning as they try to get to a bowl.


4-Unit Play. Take #416 Washington State (-2.5) over Arizona State (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

Washington State just continues to cash tickets. They almost knocked off Stanford last week. I think they will have success against Arizona State this week. Washington State has gone 5-0 ATS in its last five games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven games. The Cougars already have road wins over Oregon and Arizona. Their two losses were close losses against Stanford and at California. Arizona State lost a heartbreaker against Oregon last Thursday night. I don't think they will be excited to go up to Pullman to face this underrated Cougars club. ASU is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games including the end of last year. They are just 2-3 SU in their last five games. I think that this game will be a shootout with two strong offenses. But there is no denying that Washington State has been the much better team over the last month and they are a team on the rise. The home team has won four of the last five meetings and the favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five matchups between these two. Go with the hot team in Washington State.


5-Unit Play. Take #421 Michigan State (-5.5) over Nebraska (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I like Michigan State to get the job done here. The Spartans felt like they were snubbed by being posted outside the top four in the first playoff rankings. This is one of the best teams in the country. They will be out to prove it on Saturday down in Lincoln. This Nebraska team has been terrible in Mike Reilly's first season. They are just 2-5 SU in their last seven games. They have home losses to Northwestern and Wisconsin. And last week they were embarrassed in a 10-point loss at lowly Purdue. This same Nebraska team barely beat Southern Miss at home earlier in the season and this team is not going to go to a bowl game for the first time in eight years. This season looks like it will be just the third time since 1969 that the Cornhuskers won't be playing in a bowl game. This team is already looking ahead to next year. The Spartans are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 road games and 5-2 ATS in their last seven conference games. Nebraska is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight home games and I do not expect them to have much crowd support. Go with Sparty in this one and they should pull away in the second half to get a double-digit victory.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Feringo


1-Unit Play. Take #325 Illinois (-4.5) over Purdue (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

Two bad teams in the Big Ten are getting together here. But I am going to side with the Fighting Illinis. The main thing about this play is the line movement. Around 60 percent of the betting action is coming down on the home team but the line has rocketed up from a 'pick' to 4.5. Further, I think that Illinois is a little better than their record suggests. They have lost three straight but played Iowa and Wisconsin very tough in those games. Purdue is coming off a fluke win over a bad Nebraska team. But they are not a good team at all and I expect them to come back to earth this week. Illinois' defense has been sneaky-good and Purdue's quarterback can be baited into turnovers. That's a bad mix for the home team.


1-Unit Play. Take #328 North Carolina (-7.5) over Duke (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

Coaches love the saying, ?Don't let a team beat you twice?. That means that they don't want their players to let one loss linger for so long that it carries into the next game and causes a second defeat. Well, I think that Duke is going to let Miami beat them twice this week. The Blue Devils were screwed over so badly, and so clearly, last week in that last-second loss to the Hurricanes that I don't see any way that it wouldn't carry over into this week. As late as Wednesday the Blue Devils were still hoping the NCAA would come in and overturn the outcome and give Duke the win. That game dealt a blow to Duke's ACC title hopes and now UNC can throw a knockout punch. The Heels have been red hot and they are finally starting to play up to their potential. They beat the Blue Devils 45-20 last season and I think it will be more of the same this time around. The dirty secret about Duke is that they have routinely played one of the softest, weakest schedules in the country the past few years. They aren't nearly as good as their recent track record suggests. I think they are overmatched here and I think that UNC's No. 3 rated pass defense will be able to slow down Duke's offense. The Blue Devils don't have a single impressive win on their card this year. Maybe a win over Georgia Tech. And their garbage OT win at Virginia Tech. But those are two teams that may not even go bowling. I think the home team will go nuts


2-Unit Play. Take #332 West Virginia (-8) over Texas Tech (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

WVU has burned me time and time again this season. Yet as poorly as they've played they are still favored in this spot. It doesn't make a ton of sense. But then again neither does the fact that nearly 80 percent of the public is on Texas Tech in this one and the line is going the other way. That's a heavy reverse line movement and tells me which is the sharp side. The Red Raiders are coming off a pair of really emotional games (both of which they lost) against Oklahoma and Oklahoma State. Now they have to travel east for what will be a 10 a.m. body clock start for them. I don't think they'll be ready to play. Dana Holgersen needs some wins if he wants to keep his job. And he has a team that isn't as bad as its record suggests. Look who the Mountaineers have played during their recent 0-4 SU and ATS slide: Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Baylor and TCU. That's a murderer's row right there. Maybe WVU's confidence is irreparably damaged. But the fact is that I know WVU is the better team, they have a legit home field advantage, and they have the indicator with the reverse line movement. That makes this a worth spot.


1-Unit Play. Take #333 Kentucky (+14.5) over Georgia (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

Bulldog Nation is completely up in arms right now. They have the pitchforks out and they are after Mark Richt's head. It is getting nasty in Athens and I don't know that the Bulldogs are in the right frame of mind right now to go out and ring up a 20-plus-point blowout over a scrappy Kentucky team. The Wildcats have lost three straight games. But they've only been outgained by about 200 yards total in that stretch. Kentucky has revenge for ugly blowout losses to the Bulldogs the past two seasons. (And for that reason I'm not sure how seriously Georgia is taking the Wildcats this week.) But prior to these past two seasons the Wildcats hadn't lost to the SEC East rivals by more than two touchdowns since 2005. The average margin of victory in those other seven games was just 7.6 points per game. Georgia doesn't have a quarterback, they lost their star running back, their hopes of winning the East are essentially shot, the coach is about to be run off the grounds, and they are generally a mess. Kentucky isn't any good. But I think they are good enough to keep from getting blown out by this rickety Georgia team.


5-Unit Play. Take #347 Cincinnati (+8) over Houston (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

Note: This play is from the KING System.
Can perpetually underrated Cincinnati be the team that finally slows down Houston? Why not? Cincinnati's only league losses have come against Memphis and Temple. They completely and totally outplayed Temple (outgained them by 261 yards) and did the same to Memphis (outgained by 182 yards, and had to play without their starting quarterback who was injured). Houston's been on a wild ride. But take a look at their schedule! Things become a lot clearer as we get deeper into the season. They've beaten a bunch of just terrible, awful, horrible teams. Their one nice win was by three-points over a Louisville team that is struggling to make a bowl game. And they caught the Cardinals in a letdown spot after their Atlanta opener against Auburn. Beyond that Houston hasn't beaten a single good team. Cincinnati hasn't beaten a good team. But they've played good teams. And they've played them tough. I think this is too many points to lay out and I definitely think that the Bearcats are capable of taking down Houston outright, especially with the Cougars possibly looking ahead to their monster matchup with fellow undefeated AAC foe Memphis. This is a good spot for the underdog.


2-Unit Play. Take #338 Indiana (+7) over Iowa (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I will take a stab at the underdog in this one. Indiana is still very motivated as it tries to make it to a rare bowl game. They are also looking forward to a chance to play spoiler here to Iowa's Playoff dreams. Indiana's defense is pathetic. But they can score points in bunches and I think they can put some pressure on the Hawkeyes. Indiana played Michigan State essentially even for 55 minutes last week; it was 28-26 entering the fourth quarter and 31-26 with five minutes to play before Michigan State scored three touchdowns in the last five minutes to make that game look like a blowout. The Hoosiers also put a scare into Ohio State in Bloomington earlier this year. It is kind of just a matter of time before they pull an upset on someone. Indiana has had two weeks to prepare for this game also and they should be ready to roll. The Hawkeyes have played one of the most candy ass schedules in the country. Their two best wins were over Wisconsin and Northwestern, and neither of those teams is anything more than mediocre. Iowa is not a bad team. But I just don't know that they are as good as their ranking. I've seen Indiana tangle with Top 10 teams this year and play them tight. I think they can do the same here and the Hawkeyes should be on upset alert.


2-Unit Play. Take #357 N.C. State (-4) over Boston College (12:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

It was a disappointing effort by N.C. State last week. But I think they will bounce back quickly. These are two struggling teams. But State has the big advantages on offense and in terms of experience. Boston College is very tough defensively. But they are worn out. They have had to try to carry this offense all season long and they are beaten up. N.C. State is a much better team and I had this number at 7.5. I'll take another shot with the Wolfpack and hopefully, for one week, they can avoid burning me.


1-Unit Play. Take #372 Tulsa (-17) over Central Florida (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

At this point there is no reason NOT to bet against Central Florida. They have gone completely off the rails, similar to what we saw from SMU last year. They are not even competitive right now. The coaches are worrying about where they will be working and living next year and the players are wondering more about their futures than about this game. And now they have to travel out to the middle of nowhere in Oklahoma for a 10 a.m. local start. Major problems there.


2-Unit Play. Take #380 Tennessee (-17) over South Carolina (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

South Carolina played one of its best games of the season last week in Texas A&M. They still lost, of course, but they looked sharp out of their bye week and gave it a go. Unfortunately, they have to play back-to-back road games and I don't think that they will be nearly as good this week in Knoxville. Tennessee has won the last two meetings and is 7-2 ATS in the last nine in this series. And those were much better Gamecocks teams facing much worse Volunteer groups. This is the same USC team that got waxed at Georgia (by 32) and at Missouri (by 14) against two weak opponents. Tennessee is much better than its record suggests, having given away games to Top 15 teams Florida and Oklahoma. If the Vols were 6-2 right now with those two wins in their pockets this spread would probably be much higher. This is South Carolina's last road game of the year and I think that they are ready to pack it in, with their focus squarely on big final month home games against Florida and Clemson. This one is an afterthought and I think Tennessee wins big.


1-Unit Play. Take #384 Oklahoma State (+5.5) over TCU (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I just think that Stillwater is a tough place for opponents to stroll in and get a win. I think that Oklahoma State is every bit as talented as the Horned Frogs and I think that this one is going to be one of those whoever-has-the-ball-last-wins games. Oklahoma State beat TCU here in 2013 and 2012 and they have revenge for an ugly 42-9 loss at TCU last season. Both teams have taken care of business on their way to 8-0 records. But I just think that Oklahoma State is primed for an upset. TCU hasn't covered spreads at Minnesota, Texas Tech and Kansas State this year. And it was my opinion that the Horned Frogs were every so slightly overrated coming into the season while the Cowboys were underrated. I think Ok. State is going to beat either TCU or Baylor this year. If they are home underdogs in both games I'll gladly play them in both games.


2-Unit Play. Take #389 Navy (+8) over Memphis (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

Note: This play is from the KING System.
Memphis just continues to wreck people. But you just never, ever want to find yourself needing to beat a triple-option team as a big favorite. Navy is always a tough underdog and I think that they can give the Tigers a game in this one. Memphis can score. But Navy can move the ball on the ground and try to keep that Memphis attack off the field. The only team that's beaten Navy is Notre Dame. No shame there. If we ignore Memphis' big win over Ole Miss - and they had a bunch of situational advantages in that one - then we see a team that beat Bowling Green by just three, beat Cincinnati (playing a backup QB) by just seven, and beat South Florida by just seven. If those teams can play with the Tigers then I think Navy can as well. This team is used to coming through in this underdog role and they won't be rattled by being on the road here. Further, I think that Memphis could be looking ahead to next week's showdown with Houston and maybe looking past the Middies here. Either way, I'll take the points.


2-Unit Play. Take #393 North Texas (+30) over Louisiana Tech (3:30 p.m.)

Louisiana Tech hasn't beaten an FBS team by more than 30 points all year. Yet the public is pouring money on the Bulldogs in this one, with 73 percent of the action coming down on Tech. North Texas stinks. But they are coming off a win and have been playing a little better the last month. They only lost by 17 points at Marshall and by 27 at Western Kentucky. Throw in a couple other two-touchdown losses from earlier in the season and North Texas has only been bombed a couple times. They are 3-0 ATS after starting the year 0-5 ATS. The books have caught up with how bad North Texas is and gotten out in front of it. La. Tech has gone 2-0 ATS in their last two games and the public is all over them. Of course the books are going to shade this line and it is probably about six points higher than it should be.


1-Unit Play. Take #395 LSU (+6.5) over Alabama (8 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

Note: This play is from the KING System.
Well, this is a system play. It fits the criteria so we're going to roll with it. There's generally no upside betting against Alabama. There just isn't. But I also don't think that there's any doubt that, in a vacuum, the better team is getting the points in this one. And because these two teams both play such similar run-the-ball-and-play-defense styles there is always the chance that this is a game LSU loses but covers in. Six of the last nine meetings have been decided by a touchdown or less. I know a TD difference doesn't work for us. But the fact is that these two generally play extremely close games where one or two plays will make the difference. I'll take a shot here with the puppy.


2-Unit Play. Take #401 California (+4.5) over Oregon (10:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

I was driving the Cal bandwagon coming into this season. I've cashed on them early and often over the last two years. But I had to jump off the bandwagon as everyone else in the country caught on to how talented and experienced this team is. And that was smart, as this team has gone just 1-3 ATS in its last four games and has dumped three straight outright. However, look who Cal has played: at Utah, at UCLA and then USC. That's brutal. But if you dig a little deeper you see they had great opportunities to beat both Utah and USC and if this team was 7-1 right now instead of 5-3 this spread would look a whole lot different. Oregon has won back-to-back games. That has some people thinking they are ?back?. But this Ducks team has home losses to Utah and Washington State already. They kind of fluked their way to that win against Arizona State last week and I will take another shot against them here. Over 70 percent of the betting in this game is coming down on Oregon but the spread is dropping. That is another reverse line movement and it tells me that Cal bandwagon has a few empty seats after all.


2-Unit Play. Take #406 Pittsburgh (+9) over Notre Dame (Noon, Saturday, Nov. 7)

Pittsburgh is a really scrappy team and they are a solid home underdog here. These two teams play really similar styles. And there is no way in hell that this tough, rugged bunch of Pitt kids is going to be the least bit intimidated by the Irish. In fact, this is still a Super Bowl Game for most college kids and the Panthers will relish a shot to knock off Notre Dame. The underdog is a perfect 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings and Pitt won outright back in 2013. The Panthers are 4-0 ATS against the Irish since 2010 and the average margin in their last six meetings is just 4.5 points per game. Pitt's only losses were at Iowa and against North Carolina and both came by less than a touchdown. Notre Dame has wins over Virginia, Georgia Tech and Temple by less than a touchdown. I think that this one is a four-point game and even if the Panthers can't pull the outright upset I think they have enough gumption to make the points stick.


2-Unit Play. Take #414 Texas A&M (-7) over Auburn (7 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

Note: This play is from the KING System.
Auburn played probably its best game of the season last week against Ole Miss?and still lost and didn't cover the spread! A&M beat a much better Auburn team as a 23-point underdog last year and I think they will do the same this season. Auburn's only wins the past two months have come against Jacksonville State (in overtime), San Jose State and at Kentucky. A&M beat Arkansas and Mississippi State and they played Alabama tough. The Aggies are on an 0-3 ATS slide but I think that has helped to water down this number. Auburn's defense can't stop anyone and they could have their hands full with freshman Kyler Murray. Murray got the start for the Aggies last week and posted over 300 yards of total offense, including 156 on the ground. I think he can carve up Auburn again this week and I think A&M's depth and overall talent will lead them to a solid 12-point win here.


1-Unit Play. Take #363 Connecticut (-6) over Tulane (4 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)


1-Unit Play. Take #408 Middle Tennessee State (-3) over Marshall (3:30 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 7)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Norm Hitzges


DOUBLE PLAYS

•Oklahoma -25.5 Iowa State
•Wisconsin -11.5 Maryland
•LSU +6.5 Alabama
•Pitt +8.5 Notre Dame



SINGLE PLAYS

•Oklahoma State +5 TCU
•Florida State +11 Clemson
•W. Virginia -8 Texas Tech
•U La La -2 Georgia State
•So. Florida +4 E. Carolina
•Florida -21 Vanderbilt
•Penn State +2.5 Northwestern
•Tulsa -16.5 UCF
•Cal +4 Oregon
•Ohio State -24 Minnesota
•Auburn +7 Texas A&M
•Cincinnati +8 Houston

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Davis

4* Utah +2
4* Texas -29


4-Unit Play. Take #375 Utah +2 over Washington (Saturday, November 7th at 7:30 pm)

Despite the loss at USC, I still like this Utah team. They remind me of teams like Stanford and Wisconsin. They play good, hard-nosed football. They are willing to run the football right at you and play good, solid defense. They work off of the play-action pass and it’s the kind of football that fits their personnel. If you take a look at Washington’s opponents, they have already played Stanford and struggled mightily with the balanced attack of the Cardinal. They were outgained by 247 yards in that game and they were never really in it. They were down 17-0 at the half and ended up losing 31-14. Utah may or may not be as good as Stanford but there is no denying the eerily similarities between the two teams. I look for the Utes to control this game from start to finish and keep Stanford off-balance with their run game and play-action passing game. Washington may start strong but the Utes will win this one outright in the end.
Take Utah.


4-Unit Play. Take #366 Texas -29 over Kansas (Saturday, November 7th at 8:00 pm)

Well, this is the opportunity for Texas to finally blow out an opponent and they need to do just that. Charlie Strong needs it. After beating Oklahoma and KState, they laid an egg vs Iowa State last week. This week, they welcome in a Kansas team that is one of the worst teams in the country. I look for Texas to take out some frustration on the Jayhawks. The Longhorns have played their best football at home and that is where they will be this week. Kansas has struggled everywhere but they have really been bad on the road. They have been outscored 120-17 in their past two contests and at this point in the season I look for them to be looking forward to the offseason. In other words, this is a perfect storm game for Texas. It’s hard to lay this many points with this Texas team but I’m willing to do it this week because of the circumstances.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Burns

Breakfast club - fla atl
Best bet - mass
Gow - s Caro
Blue marlin - n Caro
Pac 12 goy - wash

[Can'tPickAWinner]

VERNON CROY
8-Unit Play. Take #401 California +4.5 over Oregon (Saturday, November 7 at 10:30 PM ET)
Take California ATS as my 8-Unit College Football Game of the Year for Saturday night. This pick falls into one of my elite CFB systems and I have Cal winning this game outright here on the road Saturday night so grab the points while you can as I expect this line to drop significantly by game time. Cal is coming off 3 consecutive losses against the top 3 teams in the PAC-12 South and 2 of those 3 games were decided by just 6 points. They would have beat Utah if Goff didn’t toss 5 INT’s and would have beat USC if it wasn’t for 2 INT’s. I trust Goff to manage the ball better in this game as he is one of if not the best true passer in all of college football. Cal has the 11th most passing yards this season and they have averaged 35.8 ppg with 35 TD’s and just 7 FG’s. Oregon is ranked 59th in passing yards as they have depended on their running game this season. Oregon is one of the worst defensive teams in college football against the pass ranked 111th overall and they have given up 38.4 ppg this season. Now Oregon faces perhaps the best passer in college football and they have no answer to stop this potent pass attack. Utah routed Oregon 62-20 at home and this Cal team would have beaten Utah badly on the road if it wasn’t for 5 INT’s losing by just 6 points. Cal wins outright here Saturday night against a Ducks team that is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 home games, so play Cal ATS with extreme confidence.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JASON SHARPE
5 Unit Play Take #376 Washington -1.5 over Utah (7:30pm est):
The Utah Utes started the season off winning their first 6 games but they caught some big breaks along the way beating Michigan in the Wolverines first game under new head coach Jim Harbaugh. They did crush Oregon but the Ducks lost their starting quarterback early in that contest. The Utes other two tough games were both at home as they got a bye the week before facing California and benefitted in a big way in turnover differential in those first six contests by going +12 overall.
What a fantastic job Washington head coach Chris Petersen is doing here in his 2nd season as the Huskies head coach.
Washington seems to be improving nearly every week. They’ve been in every game but one this year and that was due to the fact they were without their starting quarterback in that contest on the road at Stanford. They come in off their best game of the season last week winning by a 49-3 score versus Arizona. My numbers make this line much higher in favor of UW.
Take Washington here.

4 Unit Play Take #338 Indiana +7 over Iowa (3:30pm est):
The Iowa Hawkeyes come in with all the pressure here in this one as they try to remain undefeated on the season. They’ve faced a schedule full of power football teams that they matched up with well as Iowa is more of a power type team themselves. This will most likely be the fastest, most wide open type of team that the Hawkeyes have faced this season so far and one that could give Iowa tons of trouble due to the fact the Hawkeyes don’t have lots of team speed.
Bloomington, Indiana should be fired up for this contest as the Hoosiers have a chance to knock off a NCAA playoff hopeful. Indiana has already given Ohio State a tough battle at home earlier this season losing by just a touchdown 34-27. Indiana’s last game was a much closer contest than the final score looks as they trailed unbeaten Michigan State by just 2 points heading into the final quarter of that game. Lastly the Hoosiers have had a week off to rest up meaning they’ve had two full weeks to prepare for this contest and heal some injuries as well.
Take Indiana plus the points in this game.

4 Unit Play Take #347 Cincinnati +8 over Houston (3:30pm est):
Cincinnati was picked to win the AAC this season before the year. They’ve played fine up until now but have lost two tough conference games as both defeats came by 8 points or less to two solid teams in Temple and Memphis. The Bearcats out-gained those two teams by 220 yards on average but were done in by a -6 turnover differential and that they lost their starting quarterback Gunner Kiel early in the Memphis contest. Kiel is now back and he’s put up some huge numbers of late going a perfect 15 for 15 last game.
Houston comes into this one a bit overvalued after last week’s big win over SEC foe Vanderbilt. The Cougars took advantage of the inept Vanderbilt offense and 4 turnovers to win the game. Unbelievably not one of Houston’s opponents has an above .500 record on the season as their schedule ranks the 2nd easiest one a team has faced this season. They’ve dropped their last 5 head to head games against the Bearcats and never led last year in the 38-31 loss. This game should be a close one and if not we still have a solid backdoor cover shot with Kiel as our quarterback.
Take Cincinnati plus the points here.

3 Unit Play Take #410 ‘under’ 54 – Arkansas/Mississippi (3:30pm est):
Arkansas loves to run the football but they will have their hands full doing so here in this one against one of the best run stop units in the country in Ole Miss. The Razorbacks have also done a nice job on the defensive end of things this season especially when you keep in mind that their 54-46 overtime thriller against Auburn had just 48 points scored combined during regulation time.
Ole Miss has went to more of a run-first type of offense now that it has it’s dominant left tackle Laremy Tunsil on the field. The Rebels will be highly motivated here in this one as they were crushed 30-0 last year by Arkansas. With both teams running the ball a lot here I expect a fast played contest with less plays than normal.
Play ‘under’ the total here.