11-8-15

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Sixth Sense NFL

457 Miami +3 -115 for One Unit
467 NY Giants/Tampa Bay over 49 for One Unit
473 Chicago/San Diego over 49 for One Unit
Pittsburgh -4
NY Jets -8
Tennessee +7.5
Philadelphia - Dallas Under 43.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher
Tigre + Racing Club UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Argentina
(System Record: 849-26, won last 6 games and a push)
Overall Record: 849-678-133

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball Crusher
Charlotte Hornets +10 over San Antonio Spurs - pending
Phoenix Suns +8 over Oklahoma City Thunder
(System Record: 5-0, won last game)
Overall Record: 5-5

Rest of the Plays
Detroit Pistons +1.5 over Portland Trail Blazers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hockey Crusher
Boston Bruins + New York Islanders OVER 5
(System Record: 13-0, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 13-14-4

Rest of the Plays
Dallas Stars -105 over Detroit Red Wings

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Football Crusher
Oakland Raiders +4.5 over Pittsburgh Steelers
(System Record: 26-2, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 26-23-1

Rest of the Plays
St. Louis Rams +1 over Minnesota Vikings
New York Giants -120 over Tampa Bay Bucs
Jacksonville Jaguars +8 over New York Jets

[Can'tPickAWinner]

King creole

3* bills under 44.5

2*new england over 52
3* green bay over 46
2* indianapolis over 45

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik

3* new york giants / tampa bay over 48.0

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Jr.odonnell

3 * colts +5.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Top 3 in Super Contest

rounding again... 32 pts MIN BUF CAR PHI CHI
EJOC ................ 30.5 STL BUF TEN CAR ATL
NO REGRETS....... 30.5 NYJ TEN ATL DEN PHI

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* NFL GOM

Panthers (+3)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Robert Feringo

SUNDAY NFL SELECTION
3-Unit Play. Take #452 Pittsburgh (-4.5) over Oakland (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)

Look, I love the Raiders. I've been driving that bandwagon all season long and using my NFL Power Rankings as a weekly ode to Derek Carr (who is awesome). I also don't like the Steelers. I have been anti-Pittsburgh from jump this year and I still think that they are overrated, and that they've won several games they shouldn't have. So why go with the Steelers here? Because everyone and their sister is on Oakland this week and now it might time to sell high (at least for this week) on the Raiders. Oakland is coming off back-to-back big wins. But they have had massive situational advantages in those games. They had two weeks to prepare for San Diego, which was coming off a tough MNF loss followed by a heartbreaker in Green Bay, just six days apart. Then last week Oakland was at home against a Jets team that A) had to fly cross-country and B) was in a letdown spot after a grueling game against the Patriots. It didn't help the Jets' cause that they lost their starting QB and had to go with (don't laugh) Geno Smith. Now Oakland is at a situational disadvantage, having to travel east for a 10 a.m. PST start. They are also facing a pretty pissed off Pitt team that just lost a big game against the Bengals. Big Ben is back and healthy. And the Steelers have enough weapons in the passing game to make up for the loss of Leveon Bell. (Also, DeAngelo Williams played really well in the first two games of the season when Bell was hurt.) The Steelers hear all the hype about the Raiders. And the public is taking the points in this one. But I'm going the other way and I'll back the angry, motivated home team, which just happens to be a lot better.

2-Unit Play. Take #456 Minnesota (-1.5) over St. Louis (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
I don't buy the Rams at all. Right now the hype around them reminds me a bit of the hype that was around Miami heading into New England last week. The Rams have a tough defense, a good running game sparked by their flashy rookie, and they are coming off back-to-back convincing wins. Big deal. The Rams were playing at home against Cleveland (which was in a massive letdown situation after three straight grueling games and an OT loss to Denver; we cashed a nice ticket on the Rams that week) and then last week against San Francisco, which is a complete and total train wreck right now. So no, I'm not really impressed with those two wins the same way I wasn't impressed by Miami beating Tennessee and Houston. I have been riding the Vikings for the past month and they just keep taking care of business. I think they're one of the best teams in the NFC and this is a great matchup for the Vikes. Their front seven is extremely physical. And if they can stop the Rams running game then I don't know that St. Louis has a second option. Minnesota has underrated offensive weapons. They scored 20 points against Denver's outstanding defense and will attack St. Louis in a variety of ways. The Vikings hammered St. Louis 34-6 when these two played last year and the Vikings have won the last three meetings since 2009 by an average of 23 points per game. It won't be that big of a blowout here. But I think the Vikings are the better team and I have no problem laying points with them at home.

7-Unit Play. Take #458 Buffalo (-3) over Miami (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
Note: This is my AFC Game of the Year.
I love the Bills here and I think that this one is set to be a blowout. The general betting public has a really short memory. What I often see is that they seem to forget about NFl teams that go on a bye for a week. And that's kind of what I think is happening here with the Bills. When last we saw Buffalo they were choking away another game to lowly Jacksonville over in London. The locker room was fractured, with guys sniping in the media, and with Rex Ryan showing once again that he is an absolute incompetent that should not be a head coach. This team desperately needed that bye week. And I think they are back and focused on getting their season turned around. What is easy to forget about the Bills is that the first few weeks of the season they looked like one of the best teams in the NFL. They have the potential for a Top 10 defense. And with Tyrod Taylor at the controls the offense showed a lot of promise. Things have gone off the rails since then - due in part to injuries, but also due to Ryan's idiocy and lack of control. But it's not too late for these guys to turn it around and I think that with the overwhelming talent they have the Bills are at least capable of making a run at the postseason rather than rolling over. Buffalo absolutely demolished the Dolphins 41-14 down in South Beach in September. They are that much better. I know this is a different Miami team. But the Dan Campbell bump appears to be short-lived. Look, Miami beat the piss out of Houston and Tennessee - two of the worst teams in the NFL. That led to the public wildly overestimating just how good the Fins are. Campbell's biggest feat was turning Miami into a run-first offense. But the Patriots showed that if you have a big, physical front seven that can shut down Miami's running game (which the Bills also have and also can do) then Miami doesn't have a counter punch. Ryan Tannehill is turnover prone and doesn't respond well to pressure. I think the Bills will be all over him. Also, Miami's defense was surging. But then they lost Cam Wake for the season and that's a big blow. I think that this one is going to be an arm wrestling match. But I think that Buffalo has a lot of built-in advantages, I think they are in Save Our Season Mode, and I just think they are the better team here. If they play like it they will win this one by double-digits and I think the Bills will do just that, throwing their name back in the playoff conversation as we prepare for the stretch.

1-Unit Play. Take #459 Tennessee (+8.5) over New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
I may have been wrong about the Saints. This team may be a bit better than I thought and they are starting to put some things together. However, that doesn't mean that I like them to cover a fat number like this. Over the last month or so underdogs favored by 7.0 or more points have gone 11-4 ATS. Teams are not covering these big numbers. The New Orleans defense is a total train wreck and Rob Ryan is a total loser. The Titans are better than they've played and I can't remember a team, over a two-year period like this, that has underachieved compared to its statistical indicators as much as the Titans. I think Tennessee will rally around its new coach, similar to what Miami did when Dan Campbell came in. Mike Mularkey is an idiot and is not a long-term solution. But his experience means that he'll actually be prepared for this game. The Titans defense has been steadily improving and I think that this game is going to go 'under' the total after last week's Saints shootout. A lower-scoring game puts more premium on the points here and I think the Titans can hang around. I'll call this one 23-21.

1-Unit Play. Take #463 Green Bay (-2.5) over Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8) - meh
Are the Packers going to lose back-to-back games? I do not think so. I like Carolina. I really do. They are a tough team and they know exactly who they are and how they want to play. That's admirable. They are a no-nonsense team that plays physical. Ron Rivera built them in the mold of the Chicago Bears Cover-2 teams that he was associated with last decade. The issue is that Aaron Rodgers and the Packers have always chewed up Cover-2 teams. And I think they will do so here too. Carolina is unbeaten. But, honestly, their schedule has been a joke. Yes, they lucked their way to a win over Seattle. But beyond that they've played a bunch of below-.500 teams. The Panthers are coming off an overtime win in a nationally televised game while the Packers are angry after getting embarrassed last week. I think Rodgers bounces back and the Packers get this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #465 Atlanta (-7) over San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
This one really shouldn't need much of an explanation. The 49ers are completely off the rails. They have benched one laughably bad quarterback for another. And excuse me if I don't think that Blaine Gabbert is going to come in and save the day. The 49ers traded another key player in Vernon Davis and the situation surrounding his ouster is sketchy. This locker room is divided. They have no faith in the coach, who should be looking over his shoulder at some assistants that are probably gunning for his job. The defense stinks. The offense can't score. They can't win at home (2-7 ATS) and the crowd (what little crowd that shows up) is likely to turn on San Francisco. Also, the 49ers have a bye week on deck. You can't tell me that they aren't all looking forward to that sweet week off and I don't think they even care about this game. Atlanta, on the other hand, is battling for a playoff spot. And they are much better than their recent results show. The Falcons have an offensive yards per point average of around 26 over their last three games. That's a serious statistical outlier and means that the Falcons are ready to bust out offensively. Last week, for example, they generated 500 yards of offense and only generated 20 points. If they get to 500 again this week I expect them to put up around 40. And excuse me if I don't see Gabbert keeping up. San Fran is mailing it in. Let's call this one 38-17 for the visitors.

1-Unit Play. Take #467 New York Giants (-2.5) over Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
I hate how square this play is and everyone and their sister is on the Giants here. But the Bucs have been flakes and I don't trust them to get back-to-back wins. The Giants have generaly been a very good road team under Tom Coughlin. And they really showed a lot of heart with their big comeback last week against the Saints. Tampa Bay got lucky last week. They were outgained by more than 200 yards but benefitted from a +4 turnover margin. And they still barely won. Neither one of these defenses is any good at all. But I will defer to the better coach and quarterback in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #469 Denver (-5) over Indianapolis (4:20 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
There really is a lot going on in this game. And all of it points toward the Broncos. Denver's defense is absolutely overwhelming right now. What they did to Green Bay was an absolute clinic and it has been a long time since I've seen Aaron Rodgers get dominated like that. Denver is just two weeks removed from its bye so they are healthy, rested, and focused, This team is in the hunt for one of the top seeds in the AFC. And since everyone in the organization is all-in on one last Super Bowl run this Broncos team knows how important January home games are. But I don't think that's the biggest motivator here. I think the biggest motivator here is revenge. Indianapolis slapped Denver around last January in a playoff win at Mile High. Denver hasn't forgotten. And this is not the same Indy team that we saw back then. The second big motivation here is that this is probably Peyton Manning's last time ever playing in Indianapolis. The Colts spoiled his return two years ago, winning a game they had no business winning. But I don't see that happening here. And I think that Denver really wants to get Manning this final win in front of the old faithful. The Colts fluked out their comeback against the Panthers on Monday night for a back door cover. But now they have to play on a short week against an even better defense backed by a more motivated team. The Colts are kind of a mess right now. Denver is wrecking people. I think the Broncos win this one by a touchdown and get us this win.

2-Unit Play. Take #471 Philadelphia (-2.5) over Dallas (8:30 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
I think the fact that the Eagles are favored is very telling in this game. This is a team that has woefully underachieved this season. But they have had two weeks to prepare and now they can get some in-season revenge against the Dallas team that beat them earlier in the year. I'm interested to see if the Eagles offense can execute at a higher level after two weeks off. And I think they can. The Dallas defense is no joke. But Philadelphia's defense is really underrated and I think that they can force noodle-armed loser Matt Cassel into a couple turnovers. The bottom line is that the Cowboys are not just losing because they are without Tony Romo. They're losing because they are poorly coached and they are unrepentant losers. The Eagles really should've won at Washington and could've won at Atlanta. If they were 5-2 instead of 3-4 we'd have a completely different view of them. But those two losses were both in the final seconds and by a combined five points. This is kind of a last-gasp chance for the Eagles to prove that they are the least bit for real.

This Week's Totals
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.0 Oakland at Pittsburgh (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 42.5 Jacksonville at N.Y. Jets (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 39.5 St. Louis at Minnesota (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 48.0 Tennessee at New Orleans (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
1-Unit Play. Take 'Under' 46.5 Green Bay at Carolina (1 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
3-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 44.5 Atlanta at San Francisco (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)
2-Unit Play. Take 'Over' 48.0 New York Giants at Tampa Bay (4 p.m., Sunday, Nov. 8)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Greg shaker

3* giants-2.5

2* giants /Tampa bay over 47.5

2* green bay - 2

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Maximum Football - 5* NFL Over/Under Game of the Week - Nov. 8
5* #459/460 'UNDER 48' Tennessee Titans at New Orleans Saints 12:00 PM CT

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence

Late Phone Plays –

NFL - 3* Game 452 - Steelers (-4)

NFL - 3* Game 464 - Panthers (+3)