11-17-15

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Johnny Goodtimes

Single
New York +1 -110 1 Unit

Double
Columbus +108 2 Units
Washington -3 -110 2 Units

Triple
Toledo +7 -110 3 Units

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Candeladeportiva


Best Bet
Maryland -8.5 (NCAA)

Parlay
Duke over 159 (NCAA)
Atlanta -4 (NBA)

Single
New Orleans -6
Cleveland -4
Notre Dame -16 (NCAA)

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Sports Locksmith

NHL:
Columbus +108 2* 7:00 Eastern


NBA:

Washington -3 -110 2* 7:00 Eastern
New York +1 -110 1* 7:30 Eastern


NCAAF:

Toledo +7 -110 3* 6:00 Eastern

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We Pick Sports

NCAAB
Harvard -4.5 (-110) 6* 7:00 ET


NBA

Toronto +10 (-110) 3* 10:30 ET


NCAAF

Ball State +8.5 (-110) 8* 7:00 ET {Diamond Selection}

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Steve Merril - Steve's Screenshot (CFB) (Tuesday 11/17)

Tuesday, Nov. 17

NCAA Football

Toledo at Bowling Green (-7, 73) (6 pm ET, espn2)

Toledo is 8-1 SU on the season, and they’ve played excellent football on both sides of the ball. The Rockets are averaging 34.9 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. However, they’ve played a weak slate of opposing defenses that allow 30.4 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. Tonight they will face a Bowling Green defense that is a tad better at 27.9 points per game on 5.6 yards per play this season.

Overall this season, Toldeo’s defense has been outstanding. The Rockets only allow 18.8 points per game on 5.0 yards per play versus offenses that average 27.4 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

Bowling Green has won seven straight games while going 6-1 ATS. The Falcons have been steamrolling opponents, and in fact, their last five wins have come by a combined score of 272-99. Bowling Green is averaging 45.4 points per game on 7.0 yards per play versus defenses that allow 28 points per game on 5.5 yards per play.

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Sports Insights

52% of Spread bets on Toledo
63% of ML bets on Toledo
71% of O/U bets on Over

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JASON SHARPE
4 Unit Play Take #762 Marist +2 over Dartmouth (7:00pm est):
Nobody may have had it more difficult last season than Marist head coach Mike Maker. The Red Foxes head coach was hired very late due to the fact the former Marist head coach took another job in June putting Maker way behind going into last year. Maker is a proven winner at the D-3 levels where he posted a 147-32 in six seasons as a head coach including playing in two national title final games. CBS ranked him as one of the top 10 hires of the previous off-season. Last year Maker’s Marist squad ran into some major injury problems early on losing their top player but by the end of the season they started to get healthy and played much better basketball. The real telling sign for Marist was the fact they had the same or better outcome the 2nd time they faced every conference foe during the regular season compared to their first game against them earlier in the year. I’m expecting major improvements from this squad in Maker’s 2nd season and we seen signs of that in their opener as they nearly beat Holy Cross. He’s brought in 3 solid freshman into the mix and these guys all started the opener with 2 of the 3 coming from outside the United State. Maker has a vision and these guys fit what he wants to do. They face a Dartmouth team who lost a ton of guys from last year’s team. I think the wrong team is favored in this one.
Take Marist plus the points.

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Kelso

50* TOLEDO
10* Ball St

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Arthur Ralph

Super Pk Murray St -2 1/2,

Trophy Play Notre Dame -13

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Kelso

ADD

50 Wichita St.

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Fezzik

CFB
2* Ohio -8.5

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Sports insights / Most Lopsided NHL Games Tonight


76% on Kings
76% on Stars
66% on Blues
63% on Devils
58% on Pens

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J.R. STEVENS SMOOTH44
NCAABB
Iona +7.5

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INDIAN COWBOY
3* Miami Heat

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Dr. Bob



***NOTRE DAME (-14 ½) over Milwaukee

04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 730
My ratings favor Notre Dame by 18 points and the Irish apply to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home favorite situation tonight. The Irish should score at will against a Milwaukee defense that gave up 47% shooting to 3 bad teams over the weekend (Denver, Lipscomb, and Santa Clara). I’ll take Notre Dame in a 3-Star Best Bet at -16 or less and for 2-Stars up to -17.



**LASALLE (-3 ½) over Rider

04:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 758
LaSalle and Rider are both coming off spread losses in their opening game, with LaSalle winning by 2 as a 5 ½ point home favorite against Towson and Rider losing by 8 as a 1 point home dog to Princeton. LaSalle should play better tonight given that the Explorers apply to a 105-38-1 ATS early season situation that is 11-0 ATS if the team is coming off a spread loss. My ratings favor the LaSalle by 4 ½ points and I’ll take LaSalle in a 2-Star Best Bet at -5 points or less and for 3-Stars at -3 or less.



**LOUISIANA TECH (-6) over Texas Arlington

04:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 742
The line on this game opened at -10 and has dropped significantly, most likely due to a few players being out for Louisiana Tech. The opening line would be fair if the Bulldogs were at full strength, as my pre-season ratings would favor Louisiana Tech by 9 ½. The line adjustment is probably a little overblown for Boykins, Luckett, and White still being out, as my adjusted ratings favor the Bulldogs by 7 points. Louisiana Tech applies to a very good 112-42 ATS early season situation and the line is now fair so I’ll take Louisiana Tech in a 2-Star Best Bet at -7 or less and for 1-Star at -7 ½ points.



**Wisconsin (-24 ½) over North Dakota

05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 764
I had Wisconsin rated lower than the polls coming into the season but there is now value on the Badgers after they lost their opening game straight up as a 25 point favorite to Western Illinois. Wisky bounced back with a 27 point win as a 15 point favorite against Siena (my ratings had them by 20 in that game) and there is still some value, as my ratings favor the Badgers by 26 points in this game. Wisky also applies to a 239-121-11 ATS non-conference home situation and I’ll take Wisconsin in a 2-Star Best Bet at-26 points or less and for 1-Star up to -27 points.



***Denver (+6 ½) over NEW ORLEANS

05:00 PM Pacific Rotation: 711
New Orleans was supposed to be a good team this season and that belief is still being factored into the odds. How else could you explain a 1-9 teams being favored by this many points over a 5-5 team? I know Denver is not really as good as their 5-5 record, as I rate the Nuggets at 4 points worse than average, but New Orleans has been 6.4 points worse than average in the 8 games that Anthony Davis has played. I actually rate the Pelicans at -3.7 points because I do think they should improve defensively but I get a fair line of New Orleans by 2 ½ points and there is certainly no way to justify New Orleans being favored by 6 or 6 ½ points. People have been waiting all season for the Pelicans to start playing well and it’s simply not happening. After covering a couple in a row the Pels were beaten by 19 in Toronto and by 8 points at New York and bad teams on a 3 game losing streak are not trustworthy as home favorites. In fact, teams with a win percentage of .333 or less (after 8 or more games) are just 74-130-5 ATS as home favorites of more than 1 point against a rested opponent (i.e. didn’t play the previous day) with a better season winning percentage. A 14-50-2 ATS subset of that angle applies to the Pelicans tonight and it certainly makes sense that bad teams on a losing streak should not be favored over better teams that are rested. I’ll take Denver in a 3-Star Best Bet at +6 points or more and for 2-Stars down to +5 points.



***VILLANOVA (-17) over Nebraska

05:30 PM Pacific Rotation: 746
Villanova applies to a 112-42 ATS early season situation and the Wildcats tend to beat up on inferior teams (24-5-1 ATS when favored by 11 points or more the last few years). My ratings favor Nova by 17 points, so the line is fair, and I’ll take Villanova in a 3-Star Best Bet at -17 points or less and for 2-Stars up to -18 points (1-Star up to -19).