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2-Unit Play. Take # 56 Tampa Bay (-120) over NY Islanders (7:00 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)
The Islanders are now 1-3 in their last 4 games and are struggling to beat some of the better teams in the league right now. Jaroslav Halak rarely plays on back to back nights so Thomas Gresis will likely be the starter. The lack of offense has been plaguing the Lightning but hasn't prevented them from winning at home, thanks to Ben Bishop. He will most certainly be back in goal and will look to continue his success at Amalie Arena. Bishop is now 53-14-7 with a 2.13 GAA in 76 games since joining the Lightning. Look for Tampa Bay to continue their winning ways at home tonight.
4-Unit Play. Take # 57 Washington (-130) over Toronto (7:00 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)
Washington looks to extend their win streak to 5 with a 4th straight victory over Toronto tonight. The Capitals have outscored the Maple Leafs 12-4 in those contests. Washington looked great against Tampa last where they won 4-2 while they played extremely fast and looked like the dominant team. Ovechkin has 13 goals in the last five games and Backstrom has 7 points in the past 6. Washington is just scoring at will and don't see the Maple Leafs being able to keep up with them tonight. Cap's win their 5th straight tonight in Toronto.
2-Unit Play. Take # 63 Dallas (-105) over Minnesota (8:00 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)
The Wild have now dropped their last 5 of 6 games after going 10-3-2 in their last 15 games. They fell 1-2 on this four game homestand with Fridays 3-1 loss to Winnipeg. In watching that game I was shocked by the Wild's lack of discipline and fluidity on the ice. Minnesota only mustered up a season low 15 total shots on goal even with the return of Parise. With Minnesota's struggling on both ends of the ice they will have a very hard time beating the Stars tonight. Dallas is just too big, too fast and score to many goals for the Wild to play this type of game. Look for the Stars to get a win on the road.
3-Unit Play. Take # 53 New Jersey (+160) over Montreal (7:00 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28)
Love how New Jersey played last night. They should have never lost and were the dominant team on the ice. Montreal was lucky to come back and push the game into overtime. Price is still out with a lower body injury and don't see Condon winning back to back games against the Devils tonight. Look for New Jersey to get revenge tonight in Montreal.
Carpe diem. Good luck.
5 Unit Play. Take 2561 Under 5.5 -130 Columbus at St. Louis (8:05p.m., Friday November 28) Two teams that have been trending UNDER games do battle in St. Louis Saturday night. These two teams met in Columbus a couple weeks ago and that game flew UNDER as the Blue Jackets won 3-1 and tonight I see the same type of game being played. The Blues did NOT play on Friday after the league took Thanksgiving off and tonight I see a well rested St. Louis team and with the extra time off defense will be the key to victory tonight at Scottrade Center. Blues goalie tonight will be Jake Allen and Allen is 10-4-2 with a 2.10 GAA and Allen will also be looking for some redemption because his last start at home was dreadful losing 4-3 to the Red Wings. Columbus is 1-5 O/U in their last 6 games and the Blues are 0-4 O/U when playing on 2-days rest.
4 Unit Play. Take #505 Over 192.5 Atlanta at San Antonio (8:35 p.m., Saturday, Nov 28) I know the Spurs have been an UNDER team this young season but tonight at home and at full strength I see both teams scoring at will. The Hawks will want to make this game an up tempo matchup and get the old legs of San Antonio moving. Hawks last 4 games 3 of them have gone over and their defense in those 4 games have given up an average of 101ppg. Look for second half points to push this game over and we should see a close battle in San Antonio.
3-Unit Play. Take #510 Utah (-8) over New Orleans (9 p.m., Saturday, Nov. 28) Anthony Davis cannot stay healthy for the Pelicans. And this New Orleans team isn't very good without one of the best players in pro basketball. Tyreke Evans is also questionable and this is a really banged up team. New Orleans is just 1-5 SU in its last six road games and they are not a good team outside of their own gym. Utah is a really strong home team and they are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings with New Orleans overall. Utah suffered a rare home blowout loss against the Thunder their last time on their home court. They will not forget about that and I expect a much stronger showing. Utah beat Toronto and blew out Memphis in their only other two home games since Nov. 5. The home team has won seven of nine in this series and the Jazz will beat up the depleted Pelicans. Lay the points.
4 Unit Play. #523 Take Hawaii +7 over Texas Tech (4 pm) Expect a letdown for the Red Raiders here, as they are coming off an impressive showing in Puerto Rico including getting a game Coach Tubby Smith really wanted: Beating Minnesota. This is Hawaii's first game off of the island and that could bode trouble but this is a solid team that should not be that effected by playing on the road. Texas Tech is 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games following a victory in their previous game.
5 Unit Play. #544 Take Cal-Fullerton +2 over Nevada (9 pm) The Wolf Pack have been road warriors to open the season and I think that will take its toll of them in this game. Nevada has played just one home game this season out of five games. They have played well but they are worn down and expect the Titans to pull away in the second half. Getting points at home with two similar teams is too good to pass up. Nevada is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 Saturday games.
3-unit Play Take #67 Ottawa Senators (-130) over Arizona Coyotes (10:05pm EST) The Ottawa Senators are playing tremendous hockey right now. They've won four straight contests and outscored their opponents by a combined 19-7. Over their last 11 games, the Sens are 7-1-3 against a challenging schedule. Tonight they head into Phoenix to take on the Coyotes. Arizona is off to a surprisingly decent start at 12-9-1 thus far. Most had pegged this team as a cellar-dwellar, but they've held their own. However, there simply isn't enough talent on this squad to keep it up over an 82-game season. Their stock is about as high as I think we'll see it all year, so now's the time to be selling the Coyotes. Arizona is just 3-8 in the third game of a 3-in-4 night's situation in their last 11 tries. The Senators are 8-3 in their last 11 road games. Take red hot Ottawa here.
3 Plays Today as we look to bounce-back from a dud of a Friday. Let's return to the 5-1 run prior to yesterday.
3-Unit Play. #599. Take Tennessee-Martin +10.5 over Mississippi State (Saturday @ 1pm est)
We roll with Tennessee Martin in the first pick as our models show they are on an uptick of late. You won't notice this in their straight up record as they are 2-3 but their win at James Madison on the road speaks volumes. And, since their first game, they have improved their defensive ranking by 125 places which is important. Mississippi State should not be favored by this much over team given that they lost to top 260 Southern and beat Missouri State a top 225 team by just a few points. We like Tennessee-Martin to hang tough here and lose by 6 points this afternoon.
3-Unit Play. #515. Take Cleveland State +21.5 over Maryland (Saturday @ 7:30pm est)
Maryland is a fantastic team. Having said that, Maryland has their big tilt against North Carolina in their next game and its hard to see this team focused on this game heading into that game. Plus, this team beat Rhode Island by 23 points, is in a let down spot and only beat a similar Rider team by 10 points as well. Maryland is outside the top 200 in turnover margin and Cleveland State is a top 150 defensive team, plus, State beat a similar Rider team by 5 points and hung in nicely against top 60 SoutH Dakota State losing by 11 points. We like Cleveland State to hang here as they likely lost by 17 in a low scoring contest.
4-Unit Play. #542. Take Louisville -15 over St. Louis (Saturday @ 8pm est)
Louisville is blowing teams out and this could be one of those games where it gets ugly fast. Sure, St. Louis wants to step up against this school but having said that, you have a Louisville team that went through turmoil over the off-season with the call girl scandal and frankly, Pitino and gang are ready to lay the wood it seems on everyone. A-la Bill Belichick and the New England Patriots who wants to stick it to some people. There were those who called for Pitino's resignation and here he is, still coaching, still winning as this team faced a similar North Florida team who was top 120 and beat them by 28 points. St. Louis is led by Jim Crews but this team has trouble scoring as they are outside the top 175 in scoring and faces a top 5 offnese to boot. Plus, this team is outside the top 200 in offensive rebounding which will be an issue this evening. We like Louisville by 20 or more this evening.
Leans: Big10/Big12/SEC/Pac/Top25 Games: (Later today as we look to make sure we can try to bounce-back from yesterday). Lean on Hawaii, they are only about 15 power slots away from Texas Tech and Hawaii will be up to play the power 5 school. Small lean on Kent State against Pitt. Pitt has Purdue on deck and Kent State has a decent amount of bite on the offensive and defensive end. Lean on UAB though the line is moving up and the 3 to 3.5 could be significant here. Small lean on Ole Miss. Small lean on Georgia, they likely win this contest outright against Seton Hall, as they have had a tough schedule early and they are better than their record shows. They are also 25 power rankings pots higher than Seton Hall as well.
3-Unit Play. #63. Take Dallas -110 over Minnesota (Saturday @ 8:05pm est)
With Minnesota struggling badly the last few games, we like Dallas here as they have already shown they can beat Minny by winning 3-2 in a recent shootout on November 14th. It's easy to think that Minnesota has revenge and looks to bounce-back here. However, Dallas has won 5 of 6 contests and 8 of 9 and Minnesota has lost to Winnipeg 1-3 (as -175 favorites), losing to Vancouver 2-3 as -135 favorites and losing 5 of their last in 6 general. This will be a close game once again but we see a 3-2 victory by Dallas as they keep rolling and we seek our 3rd straight winner on the Ice this evening.
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