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3-Unit Play #704 Take Minnesota -5.5
over Denver (8 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
These teams played a few nights ago in Denver and the Nuggets won in OT. Minnesota led most of the way and were up by as many as 18 but they took their foot off the gas and let the Nuggets get back in the game. We feel the Wolves are a better team here (much more upside this season at least) and that they will make the necessary adjustments to play much better here at home. This is a bad scheduling spot for the Nuggets as they have to travel on a back-to-back after playing a fast-paced game vs. Houston last night. Minnesota had the night off. And Denver is without their starting PG here as Emmanuel Mudlay is a candidate for rookie of the year but was hurt in the last matchup between these teams. Anything under 7 is more than fair in this matchup. We don’t think revenge is a great NBA handicapping angle but it does come into play when teams have met recently, and we expect Minnesota to play a more complete game at home.
4-Unit Play #705 Take Houston +1.5
over Sacramento (10 p.m. EST, Tuesday)
Houston has just dominated this series, winning in seven straight games. We think they make it eight tonight. Houston started off the season slow but they are playing a lot better basketball now and have won five of seven games. Sacramento has been off for awhile, but for a team like this that will probably hurt more than it will help. They had won two straight (albeit against currently slumping teams New York and Utah) but this long break kills any momentum they had. And they lost to this same Rockets team in Houston earlier this month. Houston is a much better team and we think they should be favored in this game. We are getting a nice line because they come in on a back-to-back and because they are on the road. But they will not take this game lightly and we expect the road team to notch the win. The Rockets are 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings and 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings in Sacramento.
6 Unit Play Take #719 ‘over’ 151
Pacific/Wisconsin Green Bay (8:00pm est):
Pacific seen the return of senior guard Alec Kobre to their lineup a few games back and this will help the Tigers offensively. Kobre is a solid 3 point shooter which is one thing Pacific is in need of this season. The Tigers have went ‘over’ the total in 5 of their last 7 games coming into this one. They face a Green Bay squad here who is one of the fastest paced teams in the country this year, ranking 3rd overall out of 351 teams in adjusted tempo. The Phoenix love to push the pace especially against lesser foes like this and have only went ‘under’ in just 1 of their last 8 games against teams with losing road records like Pacific brings into this game here.
Play ‘over’ the total.
3 Unit Play Take #716 ‘under’ 149
Louisiana Tech/Mississippi (7:00pm est):
Simple handicap here in this one as the market hasn’t adjusted properly for the loss here of LA Tech starter Qiydar Davis. This is bigger loss than most realize for LA Tech as Davis did a lot of things for them on the offensive end of the floor. Ole Miss is an ‘under’ machine going below their posted total the last 7 straight times coming into this contest.
Play the ‘under’ here.
3 Unit Play Take #725 ‘over’ 135.5
DePaul/Stanford (10:00pm est):
This play revolves around Stanford’s season numbers aren’t as high offensively as they should be yet and a lot of that is due to not having guard Marcus Allen the first couple games this season. Allen is arguably their best offensive player. I made this total 140 so lots of value here.
Take the ‘over’.
3 Unit Play Take #714 ‘under’ 135.5
Northern Kentucky/Michigan (7:00pm est):
Michigan’s best defensive player Derrick Walton is expected to be back from an injury in this one. Walton has easily been the the Wolverines top defensive guy as his play up top of the key really slows down other teams offenses according to his head coach. Northern Kentucky does a decent job limiting teams from shooting a ton of three’s and that’s something Michigan relies on as much as any team in the country.
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