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BAHAMAS BOWL
Robinson Stadium, Nassau, Bahamas
Mid-Tenn St. v. W. Michigan (-3/63) Noon ET ESPN
Mid-Tenn St. finished on a solid 4-0 SU ATS run to get this Bowl bid with a 7-5 SU record. A closer inspection shows the last 3 of those wins to be against towel-tossers, Florida Atlantic, N. Texas and UTSA. Against the cream of the CUSA crop, Mid-Tenn lost by 30 at Western and 29 at LA Tech. Were they fortunate they did not play S. Mississippi! They were led down the stretch by QB Stockstill, who completed 70% of his passes in the last half of the season with a 27/8 ratio. He is ably abetted by WRs James and Battles. Western Michigan counters with the momentum of a (35-30) season-ending win at Toledo that knocked the Rockets out of the Title Game. This team was good enough to cover against Michigan St. and Ohio St. in September but bad enough to lose key November division encounters on consecutive weeks to Bowling Green and NIU, knocking them out of Title contention. QB Terrell is the straw that stirs the drink, backed by a trio of runners in Bogan, Franklin and Bellamy. Must feel they are a bit better of a team that can get this victory only if they can focus following their season-ending upset.
HAWAII BOWL
Aloha Stadium, Honolulu, Hawaii
Cincinnati (-1 ½ /57) v. San Diego St. 8:00 ET ESPN
Signal caller issues abound in this game with SD State QB Maxwell Smith (knee) out for the season, while Cincinnati QB Kiel is listed as questionable at this writing due to “personal” reasons. Despite huge offensive potential, which saw the Bearcats average 36/559 on offense, it was their defensive ineptitude against quality teams that makes questions abound. Against the quality teams in the AAC, the Bearcats went 0-4 SU vs. Memphis, Houston, USF and Temple, allowing a whopping 44 PPG. They will be facing a San Diego St. team who brings the momentum of a 9-0 SU winning streak into this contest. Fundamentals speak loudly in favor of the Aztecs. Their 67% run/pass balance puts the onus on the RB tandem of Pumfrey and Price. Replacement QB Chapman should be decent now that he has 2 games under his belt, including the Title Game victory (27-24) on his home field against Air Force. Bearcats’ highly potent offense could well struggle against the Rocky Long 3-3-5 defense which allows just 18/288. Aztecs’ fundamental excellence was confirmed with a (+19) net TO margin (best in the land). Topping it all off is the fact they played in Hawaii this season, recording a confidence-building (28-14) victory against the Rainbow Warriors on October 10th.
Cincinnati matches up with San Diego St in the Hawaii Bowl. But, the Aztecs could be without their senior quarterback who torn his ACL back on Nov. 28. The injury, which is traditionally season-ending, apparently isn't keeping Maxwell Smith from trying to suit up as he has delayed reconstructive surgery with hopes of playing. He hasn't been practicing, but is a factor if he plays. Cincinnati could see redshirt freshman quarterback Christian Chapman as the Aztecs backup. Look for SD State to constantly run the ball to make up for a lack of a strong passing game. Additionally, their run offense is top notch with Donell Prumphrey impressing scouts. For Cincinnati, their QB is set with Heydon Moore. Moore will be something to watch as he leads the 5th best offense, averaging 559.4 total yards per game, into a tough matchup with the Aztecs. Look for the Bearcats to establish the run and to keep the Aztecs off balanced. The Bearcats greatest strength is thru the air. Look for them to rev up the pass game and take control of the game in the second half. This game may just come down the the Bearcats kicking game.Andrew Gantz is 48-for-49 on extra points and 21-for-27 on field goals with a long of 51 for Cincinnati.
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