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Most of the card is off the board.
6-Unit Play. Take #543 Belmont (-13) over SE Missouri State (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
Belmont played one of the toughest, most challenging schedules of any team mid-major team in the country this year with one thought in mind: toughening themselves up for conference play. Well, conference play is here and they are ready to go. The Bruins have laced them up in true road games at Marquette, at Arizona State, at Evansville, at BYU, at Valpo, at Middle Tennessee State and at Cleveland State. Now they are on the road facing one of the worst teams in college basketball, SEMS. Belmont has played seven games against teams outside of the Top 100. They have won six of them. And their games against teams rated 200 or lower (SEMS is No. 334) have been decided by 13, 25, 16 and nine points. This game is most comparable to Belmont's game at No. 317 Kennesaw State - that was the one they won by 25 points. I think they will be even more motivated to attack a league opponent at the start of conference play. SE Missouri State is terrible. They have only beaten one D-I team and have routinely been wrecked, losing by 15 or more points six times. This team lost by nine against UT Rio Gande Valley. They lost by 18 at Alabama A&M. They lost by 27 - at home - to Bowling Green. And their games against teams in the Top 110 have been decided by 31, 15, 24, 15, and 11 points. So they're not even close. This is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, shooting just 40.5 percent as a team. That includes making just 27.4 percent of their 3-pointers but doesn't include their astoundingly bad 55.6 percent free throw shooting percentage. If there's anything that Belmont can do it is make shots.
They have the league's best player in Craig Bradshaw and an emerging stud in foreward Evan Bradds. This team is much deeper than last year and I think has the potential to be better. SEMS also had three players quit recently and they are now playing without four of their top six scorers and five of their top eight from last year. They really have just one guy that's a college-caliber player. Their entire bench is comprised of freshmen (along with one starter). That's not going to be enough. Belmont can pick its own score here.
1-Unit Play. Take #515 Delaware (+11.5) over Hofstra (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
I'm a really big fan of this Hofstra team. They are a team we've bet a lot the last two seasons. However, they have not been blowing teams out at the same rate this year that we've seen in the past. Maybe they are saving it for conference play. But they have the look of a frontrunner that is going to play up and down to its competition this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #520 James Madison (-5.5) over Charleston (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
The Dukes have been running people out of their gym and this is one of the most explosive teams in the CAA. This is a really young Charleston team; only two of their top eight players are not freshmen or sophomores and they have no seniors in the regular rotation. I think they will get get run here.
1-Unit Play. Take #529 Appalachian State (+8.5) over UL-Monroe (3 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
UL-Monroe is finding it hard to duplicate last year's success and it has been tough sledding. They are also trying to play without their key player, Majok Deng. Everything about this team revolves around its defense and he is by far and away their best defender in the post. Appalachian State isn't as bad as its record and has played some teams tough. I think they can make this a game.
1-Unit Play. Take #539 BYU (+5.5) over St. Mary's (11 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
I never have any luck betting against the Gaels. And that is the only reason that this play isn't rated higher than it is. I'm a sucker for BYU, but the bottom line here is that St. Mary's hasn't played anyone this year. I mean anyone. The played one tough game at Cal. That's it. They haven't played any other team rated in the Top 80. Their schedule is rated No. 332 in the country. BYU has played, and beaten, good teams. They are strong in the post and have excellent guard play. I think they will win this game straight up.
1-Unit Play. Take #545 Montana (-6) over Northern Arizona (2 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
The line movement made me back this play down a bit. And I tip my had to Northern Arizona for playing an absolutely brutal schedule (No. 8 in the country) so we know they are better than their record. But how much better? This is an incredibly young team with three freshmen starters and five of its top seven guys in their first year. Did getting beaten down in the nonconference give them confidence or crush their confidence? We'll find out against the top team in the league.
1-Unit Play. Take #551 Idaho (-1) over North Dakota (6 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
1-Unit Play. Take #553 Montana State (+2.5) over Southern Utah (6 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
Montana State isn't very good. But they do have one definable characteristic: they can score. They don't defend at all, but they are a very solid shooting team and they have two guys that average over 16 points per game (and six guys scoring eight or more). Southern Utah is kind of a mess and they are still playing without their best player, A.J. Hess. They've only beaten one D-I team this year and I don't think they get it done here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #528 Butler (-2.5) over Providence (2:30 p.m.) AND Take #539 BYU (+10.5) over St. Mary's (11 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #518 UNC-Wilmington (-8) over Drexel (1 p.m.) AND Take #520 James Madison (-0.5) over Charleston (1 p.m.
Most of the card is off the board.
6-Unit Play. Take #543 Belmont (-13) over SE Missouri State (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
Belmont played one of the toughest, most challenging schedules of any team mid-major team in the country this year with one thought in mind: toughening themselves up for conference play. Well, conference play is here and they are ready to go. The Bruins have laced them up in true road games at Marquette, at Arizona State, at Evansville, at BYU, at Valpo, at Middle Tennessee State and at Cleveland State. Now they are on the road facing one of the worst teams in college basketball, SEMS. Belmont has played seven games against teams outside of the Top 100. They have won six of them. And their games against teams rated 200 or lower (SEMS is No. 334) have been decided by 13, 25, 16 and nine points. This game is most comparable to Belmont's game at No. 317 Kennesaw State - that was the one they won by 25 points. I think they will be even more motivated to attack a league opponent at the start of conference play. SE Missouri State is terrible. They have only beaten one D-I team and have routinely been wrecked, losing by 15 or more points six times. This team lost by nine against UT Rio Gande Valley. They lost by 18 at Alabama A&M. They lost by 27 - at home - to Bowling Green. And their games against teams in the Top 110 have been decided by 31, 15, 24, 15, and 11 points. So they're not even close. This is one of the worst offensive teams in the nation, shooting just 40.5 percent as a team. That includes making just 27.4 percent of their 3-pointers but doesn't include their astoundingly bad 55.6 percent free throw shooting percentage. If there's anything that Belmont can do it is make shots.
They have the league's best player in Craig Bradshaw and an emerging stud in foreward Evan Bradds. This team is much deeper than last year and I think has the potential to be better. SEMS also had three players quit recently and they are now playing without four of their top six scorers and five of their top eight from last year. They really have just one guy that's a college-caliber player. Their entire bench is comprised of freshmen (along with one starter). That's not going to be enough. Belmont can pick its own score here.
1-Unit Play. Take #515 Delaware (+11.5) over Hofstra (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
I'm a really big fan of this Hofstra team. They are a team we've bet a lot the last two seasons. However, they have not been blowing teams out at the same rate this year that we've seen in the past. Maybe they are saving it for conference play. But they have the look of a frontrunner that is going to play up and down to its competition this year.
1-Unit Play. Take #520 James Madison (-5.5) over Charleston (1 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
The Dukes have been running people out of their gym and this is one of the most explosive teams in the CAA. This is a really young Charleston team; only two of their top eight players are not freshmen or sophomores and they have no seniors in the regular rotation. I think they will get get run here.
1-Unit Play. Take #529 Appalachian State (+8.5) over UL-Monroe (3 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
UL-Monroe is finding it hard to duplicate last year's success and it has been tough sledding. They are also trying to play without their key player, Majok Deng. Everything about this team revolves around its defense and he is by far and away their best defender in the post. Appalachian State isn't as bad as its record and has played some teams tough. I think they can make this a game.
1-Unit Play. Take #539 BYU (+5.5) over St. Mary's (11 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
I never have any luck betting against the Gaels. And that is the only reason that this play isn't rated higher than it is. I'm a sucker for BYU, but the bottom line here is that St. Mary's hasn't played anyone this year. I mean anyone. The played one tough game at Cal. That's it. They haven't played any other team rated in the Top 80. Their schedule is rated No. 332 in the country. BYU has played, and beaten, good teams. They are strong in the post and have excellent guard play. I think they will win this game straight up.
1-Unit Play. Take #545 Montana (-6) over Northern Arizona (2 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
The line movement made me back this play down a bit. And I tip my had to Northern Arizona for playing an absolutely brutal schedule (No. 8 in the country) so we know they are better than their record. But how much better? This is an incredibly young team with three freshmen starters and five of its top seven guys in their first year. Did getting beaten down in the nonconference give them confidence or crush their confidence? We'll find out against the top team in the league.
1-Unit Play. Take #551 Idaho (-1) over North Dakota (6 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
1-Unit Play. Take #553 Montana State (+2.5) over Southern Utah (6 p.m., Thursday, Dec. 31)
Montana State isn't very good. But they do have one definable characteristic: they can score. They don't defend at all, but they are a very solid shooting team and they have two guys that average over 16 points per game (and six guys scoring eight or more). Southern Utah is kind of a mess and they are still playing without their best player, A.J. Hess. They've only beaten one D-I team this year and I don't think they get it done here.
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #528 Butler (-2.5) over Providence (2:30 p.m.) AND Take #539 BYU (+10.5) over St. Mary's (11 p.m.)
1-Unit Play. TEASER: Take #518 UNC-Wilmington (-8) over Drexel (1 p.m.) AND Take #520 James Madison (-0.5) over Charleston (1 p.m.
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