1-6-16

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Steve Merril Basketball

3% plays: Hornets & Wizards, CBB Fresno St

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Charlie sports

NBA. 7:00 PM EST. New York Knicks at Miami Heat Under 192'-Points. (500*).

NBA. 7:35 PM EST. Toronto Raptors at Brooklyn Nets over 195-Points. (500*)

NBA. 10:05 PM EST. Portland Trailblazers+4. (500*).

NBA. Boston-3. (30*)

NCAA. Tennessee+4. (20*)

NBA. Washington+7. (10*) Free Play.

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MILLIONAIRES CLUB
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CENTRAL MICHIGAN

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SPORTS BANK
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UNLV

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5* orlando magic
3* ohio university

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Miracle handicapper

Gow#3
Duke -8 2 units

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JOE GAVAZZI
Georgia Tech at Pitt (-9) 7:00 ET
Among yesterday’s selections was one of our fully qualified SUPER Ds, Kansas St., who came in under the number as commanded in their game vs. Texas. Today, we switch gears to a favorite selection (SUPER D favorites were 153-84 ATS (65%) beginning the week) with an ACC contest.
This Wednesday, January 6th, GA Tech travels to Pittsburgh for Game 2 of their respective ACC slates. Last year, Pitt was 19-15 SU for the season, including a win by 70-65 as (-6) vs. a GA Tech team, who was 12-19 SU last season. Each of these teams is vastly improved with GA Tech entering tonight’s contest at 10-4 SU, while Pitt is 12-1 SU.
A measure of the GA Tech improvement came in their league opener, where they lost to powerful N. Carolina only (86-78) in Chapel Hill as a 13 point road dog. But in the top-heavy ACC, GA Tech, who was just 3-15 SU in the league last year, is again ticketed for a lower echelon finish. Last year’s struggles for the Yellow Jackets came when they only shot 41% from the field and 27% from the arc. That has improved significantly to 46/37 this year. But, much of that has come against lower-rung competition. The Yellow Jackets have cruised to high-scoring wins at home against many lesser lights. But in their 2 toughest non-conference, step-up games, they lost by 17 to Villanova and 14 at Georgia. Going to Pitt presents another challenge.
Under 13th year HC Dixon, the Panthers have long been known as a great defensive team. That is true again this season, as the Panthers qualify on our list of SUPER Ds. They allow just 63 PPG, 38% from the field, 29% from the arc. Pitt also has a dominant +12.1 rebound margin and +8.9 assist/TO ratio. That latter number points out the improved offensive efficiency of a Panther team that is now averaging 85/50/36, while knocking down 79% from the stripe (a key factor in extending late game leads). As expected, Pitt is led by experienced triplets, PG Robinson, along with Jamel Artis and Michael Young. But, there is extraordinary depth on this Pitt team, which is a further reason why we will find them excelling in this role. After standing 17-40 ATS as home chalk entering the season, Pitt will extend to 5-3 ATS as home chalk after their dominant double digit victory tonight!

LaSalle at Fordham (-9) 7:00 ET
Among yesterday’s selections was one of our fully qualified SUPER Ds, Kansas St., who came in under the number as commanded in their game vs. Texas. Today, we switch gears to a favorite selection (SUPER D favorites were 153-84 ATS (65%) beginning the week) with an A10 contest.
Today’s game finds the LaSalle Explorers travelling to the Bronx, where they will face the Fordham Rams in venerable Rose Hill Gym. The recent history of Fordham has been a long way from that of the glory years some 50 seasons ago, when teams considered it to be a double victory, if they not only won the game against the Rams, but escaped the Bronx with their lives! The recent downturn in Fordham fortunes has begun to reverse itself this season. At the same time as that is taking place, an equally glorified LaSalle program is finding themselves in a down season for HC Giannini. As a measure of how quickly things can change on the college basketball landscape, consider that when Fordham beat LaSalle on this floor (63-48) last season, they were a +5 home dog. That is a 16 point line swing in less than 1 season. Yet, that vast swing in the line is still not enough to compensate for the difference in these teams.
I spent 2 agonizing hours Sunday afternoon watching my Top Rated PICK on UMass outlast these downtrodden LaSalle Explorers! It was the worst LaSalle team I have witnessed in many seasons. It was just 3 years ago that Giannini had consecutive 20-win seasons. But, the Explorers won only a combined 32 games in the previous 2 years and show just 4 victories for this season. Tonight, they enter on a 0-6 SU, 0-6 ATS slide and appear to be less competitive as the season wears on. Their once proud record on the road under Giannini, which was 55-34 ATS at one time has now slipped to 9-17 ATS of late. This is a clear PLAY AGAINST team.
In the Bronx, the fortunes have clearly swung the opposite way. Under 1st year HC Neubauer (a Beilein disciple), who toiled his previous 10 years in anonymity at E. Kentucky (70 wins the last 3 seasons), many questioned why Neubauer would take the job in the Bronx to rebuild a Fordham program that won just 44 combined games in the last 5 seasons. Neubauer clearly knew what he was doing, as Fordham with a 9-4 SU record has become a Hidden Gem in college hoops. Using a 10-man rotation and led by frosh PG Chartouny, the Rams have turned the corner with the mantra that has proven successful for all programs. They play defense, rebound and take care of the basketball. As a result, Fordham has made our list of SUPER Ds by allowing just 62 PPG, 27% triples with a +5.8 rebound margin, a +3.2 assist/TO margin and by forcing a whopping 19 TOs per game. In what is a shocking line to some, I still believe there is value at this price with the Rams tonight.

George Washington (-9-) at St. Louis 7:00 ET
St. Louis is pure PLAY AGAINST material on a 0-8 ATS slide. Recent 3 losses have been by 28 to Rhode Island, 28 to Kansas St. and 13 on this court to S. Illinois. Fourth year HC Crews has now exhausted the goodwill, and players, of the Rick Majerus Golden Era. Enter George Washington, a Defensive Dandy of a team, allowing just 67/41/31 with a positive rebound margin and assist/TO ratio. They will easily shut down an impotent St. Louis offense that is averaging just 64/43/30. Addition of Wake Forest transfer, Cavanaugh (16 PPG) to the strong returning trio of interior force Larsen, “do-everything” Garino and PG McDonald makes this team a valid contender for A10 superiority.

Ohio (-2) at N. Illinois 8:00 ET
Bobcats are improving smartly under 2nd year HC Phillips (remember him from his Bizon days at N. Dakota St.?). After just 10 wins in his maiden voyage, Phillips is now 9-3 SU, 7-1 ATS. But, he has lost every step-up game, including Tulsa, Florida St. and his lone road outing at St. Bonnie (81-68). Don’t think N. Illinois is in that class? Check the SUPER D list, who finds that 5th year HC Mark Montgomery (a Tom Izzo disciple) has his Huskies qualifying on the SUPER D list with allowance of only 62/37, an 8.4 rebound margin and +4.3 assist/TO margin. All while forcing over 16 TOs per game. Take this Hidden Gem to the bank at a value price.

St. Bonaventure (-3) at George Mason 8:00 ET
Early season returns indicated great improvement by George Mason in their 1st season under HC Paulsen (the highly respected former HC at Bucknell). There were wins vs. Ole Miss, Oklahoma St. and a cover vs. Virginia. But, things have rapidly gone downhill since with losses to the likes of Manhattan, Towson, James Madison and a 24 point, season-opening A10 loss at VCU. Granted, all those games were on the road. But, the margins were so significant that it sets up a red flag for this A10 home opener against a St. Bonnie team, whose HC Schmidt is a veteran in this conference. Great guard play is essential to road victories and that is exactly what is at Schmidt’s disposal tonight with his combo guards, Adams and Posley, combining for 35 PPG.

Texas Tech at Iowa St. (-11) 9:00 ET
There were will be a lot of public knee-jerking to the Texas Tech side here, once they find out that the Red Raiders enter tonight on runs of 10-0 SU, 7-0 ATS with an opening game conference victory against Texas (82-74). BUT, THIS IS THE FIRST ROAD GAME FOR TUBBY’S TROOPS. IT COMES AT THE WRONG TIME AND THE WRONG PLACE. No Naz Long? No matter for Iowa St. who, under 1st year HC Prohm, has played 2 of their best games in his absence with a road win at Cinci and a cover at Oklahoma, Saturday night, where they let the game slip away from them in the late going in an 87-83 loss to the nation’s No. 2 team. That will bring plenty of hunger, as well as respect. But, this game is played on the magical floor of Hilton Coliseum, where the Cyclones are 52-3 SU 4+Y with 20 point home wins quickly becoming a habit for high-scoring, up-tempo ISU, who is averaging 86/51/36 with a 17.6/11.0 assist/TO ratio. Red Raiders are not equipped to play at that pace. Though the fact that they are a qualified SUPER D prevents us from taking off the rubber band!

California at Oregon (-3-) 9:00 ET
Cal enters tonight with a full-head of steam on a 4-0 SU ATS run (all at home) after winning their first PAC 10 weekend with double digit victories over Colorado and Utah. That leaves a very talented, but very young, Cal Bear team ripe for the letdown, when they travel to face an angry Oregon team at McArthur Court. For, it is there, under 6th year Oregon HC Altman, that the Ducks have built a fortress going 58-7 SU L3+Y at home. Off a PAC 10 opening loss at Oregon St. by a non-competitive score of (70-57), look for the bounce back by the Ducks on their strong home court against a young Cal team who will be unprepared for this road outing.

San Jose St. at San Diego St. (-20) 10:00 ET
Aztecs are ill-equipped on the offensive end with an attack unit that averages just 65/41/31 to author this 20+ point blowout. San Jose, at 5-9 SU, has already authored 3 more wins than last year’s 2-28 SU campaign. That has shown in the ATS column with a 4-1 ATS mark as +10+ this season with the lone loss by 18 as +17 at Marquette. In fact, no Spartan loss this year has been by more than 20 points. Only one way to look!

Cal Poly Slo at Hawaii (-10-) Midnight ET
The Cal Poly Slo Mustangs travel to Hawaii to face the Rainbow Warriors in the Big West opener for each team. Last year when these teams met, they split a pair of narrow 3 and 4 point decisions.
While you were sleeping (Hawaii has played 12 of their first 13 games at home) and maybe while you are sleeping again tonight, the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors at 11-2 SU have quietly emerged as one of the under the radar teams in college hoops. Their only defeats have come in their lone mainland trip to Texas Tech (by 8) and against No. 2 Oklahoma BY ONLY 3 POINTS! That came in their 3-game holiday tournament, when they also defeated highly respected N. Iowa (68-52) and SEC member, Auburn (79-67). The architect of the turnaround is 1st year HC Ganot, a former St. Mary’s Asst. (but that St. Mary’s story we will save for another day). One look at their statistics confirms the excellence. The Rainbow Warriors average 81 PPG on 49% shooting, while knocking down an average of 7 triples. With a +7.3 rebound margin, an offense that dishes out nearly 18 assists per game, and a defense that forces 16 TOs, they are the real deal.
That will prove to be death for Cal Poly Slo, who under 7th year HC Callero have changed their M.O. In former years, the Mustangs were a tempo conscious, grab and hold defense that looked to slow down games and pull out victories in the closing minutes. But that had resulted in an average of only 16 wins per year the previous 5 seasons. With the change of rules, Callero decided to go more up-tempo. That was evident out of the gate when his Mustangs hung tough in their first 2 road games with covers at rebuilding UNLV and UCLA. Since that time, however, they have played 3 quality teams on the road or neutral venues, losing by 30 at St. Mary’s, 19 to USC and 19 at Texas A&M. Today marks their 6th consecutive game away from Mott Gym, where they have not suited up since their December 5th victory against Fresno. Now, Hawaii may not be of the same ilk of those aforementioned, up-tempo powers, who wiped out the Mustangs. Or are they? Just ask Oklahoma!

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ROBERT FERRINGO
1-Unit Play. Take #525 Georgia Tech (+9)
over Pittsburgh
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
Pittsburgh has beaten Georgia Tech in each of the past two years so I’m not sure how seriously they are taking the Jackets right now. The Panthers are off a 34-point blowout win over a schlub mid-major team and they have games at Notre Dame and at Louisville on deck. I just don’t know that they are going to rear back and blow out one of the most experienced teams in the country. The Jackets have four senior starters that have been around the block. It took a while for these guys to get used to playing together but they really had North Carolina on the ropes last Saturday before losing by just eight. I think they can hang around in this one.

2-Unit Play. Take #528 Wake Forest (+8.5)
over Duke
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
This game just really reminds me of the Kentucky-LSU game last night. Wake Forest is a long, athletic team that will gain confidence by playing in front of a raucous crowd. The Blue Devils beat this same Wake Forest team by 43 points last March. That was one of the most humiliating losses in Demon Deacons history, and Wake will definitely want revenge. And they are capable of getting it. They only lost to the eventual national champions by eight at Cameron Indoor last season. And everyone is back from that team, plus freshmen Bryant Crawford and John Collins. Also, Wake hasn’t gotten anything close from Codi Miller-McIntyre and when he starts to regain form these guys are going to be a legit sleeper in the ACC. Duke is still a very talented team. However, they have been coddled by an easy schedule this year and they have lost to the two best teams that they’ve faced, Kentucky and Utah – neither of whom is any better than a Sweet 16-caliber team. Wake may not be any better than just a tourney-caliber team. But they are good enough to beat the Blue Devils. Duke’s only true road game of this season was last Saturday at Boston College. And that doesn’t even count as a road game because BC is one of the worst teams from any of the seven high-major conferences. Duke is an exceptionally young team that just hasn’t played in this type of environment yet. Grayson Allen is going to be the best player on the floor. But Wake actually matches up pretty well at the other four spots. I think Duke can win this game. But I have a hard time predicting a double-digit road blowout against a team as good as Wake. I’m taking the points.

1-Unit Play. Take #536 Maryland (-24)
over Rutgers
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take #539 South Florida (+8)
over Central Florida
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
You have to look very closely, but this USF team isn’t as bad as its 3-12 record suggests. They’ve been crushed by injuries and will have a lot of reinforcements coming next year. In the meantime they are just trying to hold down the fort. I think they’ll get up for this rivalry game on the road. The underdog is 8-1 ATS in this series and home court hasn’t meant much, with the visitor winning four of the last six meetings. UCF does have revenge for an ass kicking they took last March. But they really haven’t done much this year and without B.J. Taylor they don’t have the guard play to really hit the jets on someone; this is the same team that only beat Bethune Cookman by five points in overtime just a couple weeks ago. UCF is really big. But they’re not that skilled. This one is really just two bad teams trading blows. And I’ll 1-Unit Play. Take a stab with the points since A) I know USF is better than it has played (their schedule has been ridiculous) and B) that’s just the way this series has gone.

2-Unit Play. Take #544 Central Michigan (-4)
over Eastern Michigan
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
These two teams have seven wins over D-II schools between them. So its tough to know what we are actually dealing with when it comes to these teams. But I know that Central Michigan was really, really good last year (they won 23 games) and were solid at home. They swept a better Eastern Michigan team last season and I think they can get a win here tonight. Central Michigan has its top seven scorers back from last year’s team, but they had to play their first seven games without leading scorer Chris Fowler. He’s back and these guys have been improving. As I look at the schedule I see six losses. But none of them are really that ad, with four of them coming by six points or less and all of them coming away from home against teams that I think range from good to competent. Eastern Michigan really hasn’t done anything. And they’ve been blown out in most of their losses, with four of the five coming by 10 or more. It is offense vs. defense with this matchup. I think the home team will set the tempo and I just think CMU is better.

1-Unit Play. Take #546 Ball State (+2.5)
over Toledo
(7 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
Ball State brought back six of its top eight scorers from last year and added solid transfer Ryan Weber, who is now their second-leading scorer. This team already has a win over Valparaiso under its belt – that’s no small feat – and they’ve been really good at home this season. Toledo has won three straight games by blowout, all against really feeble competition. I think they think they are a little better than they actually are. And this line kind of reflects that. Neither team has played a strong schedule (they are both rated No. 320 or lower), but Toledo is really young, and this is their first road game in league play. They have lost two of their last three true road games as is. They have two of the three best players on the floor here. But I think the public is going to 1-Unit Play. Take one on the chin here as this Toledo team isn’t nearly as good as it has been the past two years.

2-Unit Play. Take #552 Illinois State (-6.5)
over Loyola-Chicago
(8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
I still think there is something going on behind the scenes with this Loyola-Chicago team. They have been a major disappointment this year and have lost their first two league games by double-digits. They have just one decent win this year – a home win over Creighton – and several bad losses. The Rambler’s haven’t done jack on the road this season, getting floored by New Mexico, Notre Dame and Indiana State, and I don’t trust them in this spot. Illinois State played a very challenging schedule to start the year and it may be paying dividends now. I hate trusting them to cover any points – they are offensively challenged – but I think that this is a good spot for them. I think they gained a lot of confidence by scoring a road win at Drake over the weekend and they are now 2-0 in league play. They beat Missouri State by 13 points at home and if the Redbirds shoot confidently in their own gym tonight I think they can win this one going away as well.

1-Unit Play. Take #560 Drake (-1.5)
over Indiana State
(8 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)

2-Unit Play. Take #572 Northwestern (-2)
over Ohio State
(9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
This could be a good spot for the Wildcats, a team that I predicted would make the NCAA Tournament this year. To this point they have done exactly nothing to prove me right! They are 13-2 but they haven’t beaten anyone. Now is their chance. Ohio State has won six straight games, including a season-changing win over Kentucky on Dec. 19. They are feeling really good about themselves here. However, like a lot of my plays today, this team has played a ridiculously easy schedule that hasn’t seen them leave the cozy confines of home often – if at all – this year. Ohio State has played exactly one road game this year and they lost by 20. Thad Matta does that stuff every year. Last season the Buckeyes barely won their first road game (in OT) and lost three of their first five Big Ten road games. The year before they lost three of their first four. The year before that it was two of their first three (and that team won 29 games). Even the 2011-12 team that won 31 games lost two of their first three league road games because they spent the first two months playing at home. Ohio State is 5-16 ATS in its last 21 road games overall. Northwestern absolutely has to have this game. They’ve come so close so many times. They’ve actually gone 7-3 ATS in their last 10 against Ohio State, losing by just two points at home last year. They almost had them in 2011 and 2012 as well, and Northwestern has lost 10 straight to the Buckeyes. This could be a signature moment for Northwestern. I think they steal one here.

2-Unit Play. Take #580 Fresno State (-7)
over Nevada
(10 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
For me this is a no-brainer. I think Fresno State is one of the best teams in a wide-open Mountain West this year. Nevada isn’t a threat to win anything. They’ve played hard and played a bit better than I thought they would since A.J. West left. But they have also lost their last two road games by 29 and 12 points. These two teams matchup well – they both play small – but Fresno State is just a much better team. They are one of the most experienced teams in the nation and I think they are going to bounce back quickly after their loss to new Mexico last weekend. Cezar Guerrero has played like trash the last three games. He is too good of a player to keep missing shots like he has (he’s 3-for-20 the last three games). Nevada can’t hurt Fresno State on the inside, where they are vulnerable. So in a matchup of perimeter players I’m going with the home team.

*7-Unit* Play. Take #586 Oregon State (-6.5)
over Stanford
(11 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)

1-Unit Play. Take ‘Over’ 132.5 – Stanford at Oregon State
(11 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
I still think Stanford sucks. They fluked out that overtime win over Utah. Were it not for that they would be 0-6 against teams ranked in the Top 80 this year. And four of those games were at home. This is Stanford’s first road game since Nov. 22, and in that one – their only true road game of the year – they got hammered by 18 points by St. Mary’s. They haven’t left the comfy confines of their home court since Nov. 27 – which is ridiculous. Oregon State is very good and very experienced. They just thrashed rival Oregon on Sunday, winning by 13, and I think the Beavers will set the tempo in this one. The Cardinal beat Oregon State by 27 points last February. I’m sure the Beavers have not forgotten. Unfortunately for Stanford, they will be without guys that scored 46 of the 75 points in that game, whereas Oregon State has six of its top seven scorers back along with three really promising freshmen. This is Oregon State’s best team in a long time and I think they are going to body slam the visitors tonight.

2-Unit Play. Take #583 Long Beach State (-5.5)
over CS-Northridge
(10 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
Cal-Northridge is awful. And they are going to get lit up here today. Northridge has beaten two D-II schools, Portland State and Morgan State. That’s it since Nov. 15. They’re awful. Long Beach State is not awful. They have a poor record because they’ve played the No. 1 schedule in the country. But this team has wins over BYU, Seton Hall, Colorado State and New Mexico State already this year. They almost took down San Diego State, Oklahoma State, UCLA and Pepperdine as well, losing five games to those teams by seven points or less. Their last three games have been at Oregon, at Arizona, and at Duke. I mean, if that doesn’t get you ready for the Big West nothing will. Last year LBSU won its first league game on the road against a really good UC-Irvine team. I think they’ll do the same thing here against what is literally the worst team that they’ve faced this season.

1-Unit Play. Take #595 Belmont (-11.5)
over SIU-Edwardsville
(9 p.m., Wednesday, Jan. 6)
We will try once again with these Belmont losers. They are 1-3 ATS in their last four games. But they are vastly superior to SIU-E, which is one of the worst teams in college basketball.

1-Unit Play. TEASER:
Take #568 Iowa State (-5.5) over Texas Tech (9 p.m.) AND Take #575 California (+8.5) over Oregon (9 p.m.)

1-Unit Play. TEASER:
Take #569 Xavier (-10) over St. John’s (9 p.m.) AND Take #588 Hawaii (-5) over Cal Poly (11:59 p.m.)
Note: I also like a 1-Unit Play on #524 Georgia (-9.5). That was supposed to be posted with this card.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

TONY CROSS
NBA PLAYS
Dallas
Current Line +5.5 Buy to +7
Tier 4 of 4


Miami
Current Line -8 bought to -7
Tier 1 of 4


CHA Money Line
Tier 1 of 4

NHL PlaySt Louis over Colorado
Tier 2 of 4

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INSIDER SPORTS REPORT

4* Denver/Minnesota OVER 203.5 (NBA)
Range: 202 to 207

3* Cleveland -7 over Washington (NBA)
Range: -5.5 to -9.5

3* Georgia Tech/Pittsburgh OVER 144 (NCAAB)
Range: 142.5 to 147

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Shinoba Sports Consulting
Indiana Pacers/Orlando Magic under 199

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SB Professor Original NBA Picks
System play:
Toronto -7


Other plays:
Cleveland -7
Oklahoma City -7

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J.R STEVENS SMOOTH44
(10-star or 10-unit)
(‘Play of the Day’)
(541) Miami (OH) +4
(541) Miami (OH) ML +160

(5-star or 5-unit)
(543) Eastern Michigan +3
(546) Ball State +3
(561) UMass +15
(564) George Mason +3
(570) St. Johns +15
(575) California +4
*Buy half point if necessary

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J.R STEVENS SMOOTH44
NBA
(10-star or 10-unit)
(518) Phoenix +3
(10* *Bonus Play*)
(518) Phoenix ML +115
(5-star or 5-unit)
(502) Orlando +3
(508) Brooklyn +7
(522) Portland +4
*Buy half point if necessary

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We Pick Sports

NHL

Montreal (-150) 5* 7:00 ET



NBA


Toronto -7 (-110) 3* 7:30 ET


NCAAB


Tennessee +4.5 (-110) 5* 7:00 ET
Xavier -15 (-110) 8* 8:00 ET {Diamond Selection}