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*Detroit (-7) over BROOKLYN
04:30 PM Pacific, Rotation: 503
Detroit lost to Cleveland and at Toronto on Friday and Saturday but I expect a bounce-back performance tonight against a struggling Nets team that is just 3-11 straight up and 4-12 ATS since losing Jarrett Jack to a season ending injury. It’s not that Jack was great but rather that the players taking his minutes are terrible. Detroit applies to a 71-20-2 ATS road favorite bounce-back situation and my ratings favor the Pistons by 8 points with current lineups. I’ll take Detroit in a 1-Star Best Bet at -7 points or less and I’d lean with the Pistons up to -8 points.
*Milwaukee (+1 ½) over SACRAMENTO
07:00 PM Pacific, Rotation: 517
The Kings are a horrible team without star DeMarcus Cousins on the court, as Cousins’ +93 plus-minus in 1328.4 minutes (+3.4 points per 48 minutes) is incredible for a team that has an overall scoring margin of -76 points in 2281 minutes for the season. That means that the Kings are -169 points in 952.6 minutes (-8.5 points per 48 minutes) when Cousins is not on the court. That difference is not just because other starters have also been sitting when Cousins has been sitting as the other starters are all pretty bad when they’re not on the floor with Cousins. The starter that’s played the most minutes without Cousins on the floor is Rudy Gay, who has a plus-minus of -135 points in 528.2 minutes when he’s not playing with Cousins, which is -12.3 points per 48 minutes. The starter with the next most minutes playing without Cousins is Rajon Rondo, who is -15.9 points per 48 without Cousins (-168 points in 506.3 minutes). Overall, the other 8 regular players for the Kings are -8.6 points per 48 minutes without Cousins and Sacramento is 1-7 straight up and 2-6 ATS in games without Cousins this season with an average game rating of -8.8 points (which takes into account score, opponent, site, and rest scenario). I favor Milwaukee by 1 point with current lineups and I expect a better than normal effort from a Bucks team that has lost their last two games. Milwaukee is now 27-8-1 ATS the last two seasons after consecutive losses, including 11-0 ATS since late November. I’ll take Milwaukee in a 1-Star Best Bet at +1 or better.
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