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StatFox Super Situations
NBA | PHOENIX at MIAMI
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 200 after 2 straight wins by 10 points or more against opponent after a combined score of 205 points or more 2 straight games
34-11 over the last 5 seasons. ( 75.6% | 21.9 units )
6-3 this year. ( 66.7% | 2.7 units )
NBA | PHOENIX at MIAMI
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is greater than 105 after having won 5 or 6 of their last 7 games, a marginal winning team (51% to 60%) playing a losing team
79-39 since 1997. ( 66.9% | 36.1 units )
8-3 this year. ( 72.7% | 4.7 units ) -
StatFox Super Situations
CBB | BRADLEY at LOYOLA-IL
Play Under - Neutral court teams against the total poor team - outscored by their opponents by 4+ points/game, after scoring 65 points or less 2 straight games
262-161 since 1997. ( 61.9% | 84.9 units )
15-5 this year. ( 75.0% | 9.5 units )
CBB | NAVY at LEHIGH
Play Against - Road underdogs of +145 to +350 vs. the money line (NAVY) playing only their 3rd game in a week, in a game involving two marginal winning teams (51% to 60%)
123-26 since 1997. ( 82.6% | 57.2 units )
8-1 this year. ( 88.9% | 6.5 units )
CBB | AMERICAN at BOSTON U
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 55.5 to 60.5 revenging a same season loss vs opponent, off a close home win by 3 points or less
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 1.0 units )Comment
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Mighty Quinn
Mighty was waiting on Murray State (-6) on Wednesday and likes Drake on Thursday.
The deficit is 40 sirignanos.Comment
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STEVE'S SIX PACK PICKS
One interesting aspect this week is that there is no cut. All 66 players competing will play on Sunday, and this can change some player's strategy for the week. We will be going with players who possess 3 attributes (length, current form, and past success here). You will notice that we only have 4 selections this week. We rarely do this but at this event, the cream of the crop has to be taken (plus one long shot who enters playing great).
2 Units on Dustin Johnson 11/1 - We won with him here last year and we go right back to the well. This course was designed exactly for DJ and that is why he has finished inside the Top 12 here in 4 of his last 5 tries. Dustin is coming off a solo 4th at the Northern Trust Open and his 7th ranked Driving Distance had plenty to do with that finish. One stat I really like from Dustin is that he ranks 5th on Tour for probity to the hole out of the rough.
Rafa Cabrera-Bello 200/1 - I am going to explain Rafa in a quote almost every golfer has heard before. “Golf is mainly a 5 1/2 inch course, the space in-between your ears.” I know Bobby Jones said this quote a long time ago, but it sure applies to many golfers today ( Rafa included ). He has all the talent in the world and recently his brain has been working too ( T14, T2, T2) in his last 3 tournaments. One huge payday on Sunday thanks to the Spaniard!
2 Units on Jason Day 14/1 - NO one is talking about Jason this week and he is going to change that in a hurry. Day had finished in the Top 12 in 11 straight events until Torrey Pines. he is the second ranked golfer in the world and we are getting these odds. Sold!
2 Units on Henrik Stenson 25/1 - Henrik loves this course and his results prove it (2015 - T4, 2014 - T16 since the face lift to the course). He enters playing very well with finishes of T6 and T3 during the European Tours Desert events. Watch how incredibly long and accurate Stenson is with his 3 wood. He is long over due for a win and I think this week is a great chance for Henrik.
HEAD TO HEAD
We had another winner last week come back this week with one head to head for 3 Units.
3 Units on Dustin Johnson Over Rory McIlroy (+110)
DraftKings
This week there is no cut so we can take more chances with high/low styled line ups. I have listed 12 players who have value this week (*Remember that our 4 selections are my best values).
1. Adam Scott 11600 - He is playing too well and has a tremendous history here, so Scott cannot be left off this list. I do not think he will win but is an automatic Top 10.
2. Dustin Johnson 11200 - DJ owns this course and enters off a solo 4th. Have to take the big bomber here.
3. Jason Day 11100 - No one is talking about Day this week and that will work for the Aussie. 11 Top 12 finishes in last 12 events.
4. Henrik Stenson 10300 - He will be bombing his ‘3 wood’ all around The Blue Monster like he has done in the past.
5. JB Holmes - 9400 - JB is another player who loves this course and is playing great golf. Excellent value.
6. Brooks Koepka - 9200 - Was surprised Koepka didn't cost a bit more and he was my last cut from the outright winner picks. Has all the tools to win on any course, but you know he loves these big ones in Florida.
7. Byeong-Hun An - 8100 - Not well known in North America but enjoying a great run globally. 11 Top 20’s in last 13 global events.
8. Danny Willet - 7800 - This is a player who I really feel has a great chance to win one of the Open Championships this year. Has all the tools.
9. Jason Dufner - 7200 - Playing great golf and has a good history here including a T9 here two years ago.
10. Rafa Cabrera-Bello 6900 - Love this pick. He enters on the heels of three straight Top 15’s, including two runner ups. Just the tip of the iceberg of the talent everyone knows he has.
11. Kristoffer Broberg - 6300 - The Swede is a talented 29 year old who picked up his first career victory at the BMW Masters just a few months ago.
12. Kiradech Aphibarnrat - 6200 - Great name and plenty of talent. His game hasn't transitioned to the US very well yet, but cannot deny his ability.Comment
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Soccer Crusher Extra Bonus Picks:
Bolivar + Deportivo Cali OVER 2 (Conmebol)
Racing Club + CA Boca Juniors UNDER 2 (Conmebol)
Midtjylland + FC Copenhagen OVER 2 (Denmark)Comment
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Soccer Crusher
Palmeiras SP + Rosario Central UNDER 2.5
This match is happening in Conmebot
(System Record: 913-27, won last 4 games)
Overall Record: 913-713-146Comment
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Basketball Crusher
Houston +2 over Cincinnati
(System Record: 57-3, lost last 3 games)
Overall Record: 57-65-3
Rest of the Plays
North Dakota +8 over Montana
Colgate +7.5 over Army
Campbell +1 over Gardner-WebbComment
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Hockey Crusher
Tampa Bay Lightning -138 over Ottawa Senators
(System Record: 52-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 52-64-20
Rest of the Plays
Buffalo Sabres -124 over Calgary Flames
San Jose Sharks -162 over Vancouver Canucks
New York Rangers +116 over Pittsburgh PenguinsComment
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XpertPicks
THURSDAY
NCAA BASKETBALL
Play Old Dominion -7 over North Texas--Top Play (100Units)
North Texas has lost 17 of the last 25 games against thespread when the total posted is between 130 and 139.5 points and they have lost12 of the last 15 games against the spread when playing as an underdog. North Texas has lost 6 of the last 7 gamesagainst the spread when playing in the month of March and they are allowing anaverage of 78 points a game
this season.
Play California +6 over Arizona---Top Play (50 Units)Play Maryland -15 over Illinois---Top Play (50 Units)
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NBA BASKETBALL
Play Miami -13.5 over Phoenix---Top Play (25 Units)
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HOCKEY
Play Minnesota -165 over Toronto---Top Play (25 units)Comment
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BeatYourBookie
THURSDAY
NCAABASKETBALL
5000*Play Loyola -10.5 over Bradley
Bradleyhas lost 58 of the last 66 games when playing as an underdog and they have lost43 of the last 57 games vs. conference opponents. Bradley has lost 41 of the last 54 games whenplaying their 2nd game in a week and they have lost 44 of the last58 games after scoring 60 points or less in their last game.
5000*Play Bucknell -12.5 over Holy Cross
Bucknellhas won 23 of the last 29 games when playing as a favorite and they have won 39of the last 57 games vs. conference opponents. Bucknell has won 81 of the last 108 games after having won four of thelast five games and they are averaging 79 points a game this season.
5000*Play Army -7.5 over Colgate
Colgatehas lost 19 of the last 20 games when playing as an underdog and they have lost91 of the last 146 games when playing their 2nd game in eightdays. Colgate has lost 71 of the last 89games when revenging a road loss of ten points or more and they are allowing anaverage of 78 points in their last five games.
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NHLHOCKEY
1000*Play Philadelphia -165 over Edmonton
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NBABASKETBALL
1000*Play Miami -14 over PhoenixComment
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FantasySportsGametime
THURSDAY
NCAA BASKETBALL
10000* Play Rhode Island -10.5 over Massachusetts
Massachusetts has lost 19 of the last 28 games against the spread when the total posted is between 140 and 149.5 points and they have lost 8 consecutive games against the spread when playing in the month of March. Massachusetts has lost 21 of the last 32 games against the spread coming off a game with five or less offensive rebounds and they are allowing an average of 77 points a game this season.
500* Play Old Dominion -7 over North Texas
500* Play Bucknell -12.5 over Holy Cross
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NBA BASKETBALL
500* Play Miami -13.5 over Phoenix
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NHL Hockey
500* Play Minnesota -165 over TorontoComment
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ONLINE SPORTS WINNERS
THURSDAY
NCAA BASKETBALL
Play Arkansas-Little Rock -11 over Appalachian (TOP NCAA PLAY)--VIP PLAY
Appalachian State has lost 31 of the last 51 games against the spread when playing their 2nd game in a week and they have lost 18 of the last 30 home games against the spread. Appalachian State has lost 16 of the last 20 games against the spread coming off a conference road loss in their last game and they are allowing an average of 82 points in their last five games.
Extra NCAA Basketball Plays
Play Charleston Southern +2.5 over Longwood
Play Army -7.5 over Colgate
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NBA BASKETBALL
Play Miami -13.5 over Phoenix
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NHL HOCKEY
Play San Jose -165 over VancouverComment
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ArlonSports
Cincinnati -2Comment
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Fezzik
2* GSW vs OKC under 230Comment
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