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MARC LAWRENCE
Matchup: Oklahoma at Oregon
Time: 6:05 PM EDT (Sat)
Play: Oklahoma (+1 -105)
Line Source: 5dimes
Posted on: March 25, 2016 @ 9:27:31 PM EDT
> Play - Oklahoma (Game 523).
Edges - Sooners: Oklahoma head coach Lon Kruger is 17-4 ATS in his career as a non-conference dog off a SUATS win when facing a sub .850 foe, including 6-0 ATS when his team is off a win of 14 or more points. Ducks: 0-5 SU versus No. 1 and No. 2 seeds in this tourney since 1990 - average loss 10 PPG; and 0-3 ATS off BB wins versus Big 12 foe off BB wins. Our database cements it, noting that teams in the elite 8 Round of the NCAA Tourney off an ATS win, preceded by a pair of ATS losses in the first two rounds, are 7-3 since 1990, including 4-0 when facing a foe off a win of 14 or more points. In addition, Elite 8 round dogs of 3 or less with a lesser win percentage than their favored opponent are 11-4 SUATS since 1990 (9-0 SUATS since 1996), including 4-0 SUATS when off a DD win. With that we recommend a 4* play on Oklahoma. Thank you and good luck as always.
Steve Merril | CBB Sides - Saturday, Mar 26 2016 8:49PM
522 Kansas -2.5(+111) Pinnacle vs 521 Villanova double-dime bet
Analysis:
Villanova comes into this game with a 32-5 record after steamrolling their three opponents in the NCAA tournament. Villanova’s three wins ha ‚ve come by 30, 19, and 23 points. The Wildcats have scored 265 points on 59.9% (97-162) shooting from the field and 53.2% (33-62) shooting from three-point land. That hot shooting is next to impossible to maintain, especially against Kansas who allows just 0.92 points per possession. Overall, the Jayhawks give up just 67.6 points per game on 39.8% shooting from the field and 32.7% shooting from three-point land. Villanova is heavily reliant on making three’s (33.7% of their points scored), but only 27.2% of the points scored on Kansas’ defense come from beyond the arc. That’s significant considering Villanova only scores 47.1% of their points from 2-point range while just 49.9% of the points scored on Kansas come from inside the arc.
Kansas’ path to the Elite 8 has also been easy as the Jayhawks have won all three games by 12 points or more. The Jayhawks have yet to play their best game, but there are reasons to expect it tonight, especially since Villanova is highly likely to regress in this game. The Jayhawks own significant edges on both ends of the court based on efficiency metrics. Kansas’ offense averages 1.19 points per possession compared to Villanova’s average of 1.17 points per possession. Kansas scores 50.8% of their points from 2-point range, so they are not reliant on making three’s like Villanova. The Jayhawks also own the better defense as Villanova is allowing 0.93 points per possession. Kansas is the better team, and since Villanova is set to regress sharply, we’ll back the Jayhawks in this game on Saturday night.
POINTWISE TOURNAMENT COVERAGE
Saturday, March 26, 2016
NCAA:
Rated 3: Kansas
Rated 4: Oregon
Note: after a hot start of the early rounds, they have been awful the last 3 day!
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