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2 Unit Play. #752 Take Morehead State -4.5 over Nevada (8:30 pm ESPN U) It is almost imperative for the Eagles to win this game if they have hopes of winning the CBI crown. This is a best of three series with Nevada hosting games 2 and 3 (if necessary). The Eagles have had a tougher path to the championship round including a pair of road victories. Nevada has not left the state since March 2nd and they have not been a very good road team this season. That is because they cannot shoot and they foul a lot. Generally you get homer refs in these games and that should be the case again on Monday. Nevada is 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games against teams with a winning home court record. Morehead State has covered the spread in 6 of their last 7 home games. 61% of the money is coming in on Nevada yet the line is moving up telling us the sharps like the Eagles.
The analysis of the 4 games for Monday, March 28th comes with a backdrop that these teams have not played for between 16 and 26 days.
Tenn-Tech vs. ODU (-7) 3:00 ET
These teams have the biggest rest gap with Tenn-Tech not taking the floor for 26 days, since their First Round OVC CCT loss to Austin Peay by a whopping 20 points. That put the emphasis on a season-ending slide that saw the Golden Eagles nosedive to a 2-4 SU, 1-5 ATS finish in which they allowed an average of 82 PPG. Meanwhile, defensive tough ODU with 16 days rest (the least in the field) was on a 7-0 SU, 5-2 ATS uptick before being nipped by Mid-Tenn (slayers of Michigan St.) 55-53 in the CUSA CCT finale. ODU lead guard, Freeman (22 PPG), and the emerging Bacote, along with a far superior defense make this a clear choice.
N. Illinois vs. Cal Santa Barbara (-4-) 5:30 ET
This opening line of (-6) has been impacted by the loss of Green (11/5) for the Gauchos. But, they have plenty of perimeter power to compensate with guards Bryson (18/6), Vincent (14 PPG) and PG Childress to run the show. Barbie was red hot at 9-0 SU, 7-2 ATS (5-0 SU ATS away) before falling to league champ, Hawaii, by 12 in the CCT. Their challenge is to put the clamps on Husky big man, Maric, the near 7 footer who is averaging 12/9. But, N. Illinois was noncompetitive in a 79-62 loss to Ohio in the CCT and enters this contest with 8 consecutive road losses.
Towson vs. Oakland (-6) 9:00 ET
Showtime in Vegas for one of the nation’s most exciting teams molded by 32 year HC Greg Kampe and led by lead guard Felder. The Golden Grizz average 86 PPG on 46% from the field, knocking down 9 triples at 40%, while converting 77% from the stripe to seal the deal. No problem with traveling for the Grizz, who are 14-3 ATS in road and neutral contests. Too much for the Towson Tigers, who average 15 less PPG and failed to growl in the CCT of the Colonial, where they languished in the middle of the pack.
ETSU vs. LA Tech (-2-) 11:30 ET
It was an underperforming season for LA Tech after former HC White left for Florida and was replaced by Eric Konko (the former Larranaga Asst.). Though the Bulldogs did win 23 games for the 4th consecutive season, they slipped badly down the stretch with a season-ending road loss at WKU and a CCT loss (by 16) to ODU. One-man show, Hamilton (20 PPG) not enough to overcome the strong finish of ETSU. Under 1st year HC Forbes (Wichita Asst.), the Bucs were on a 6-0 SU ATS season-ending run, before losing to Chattanooga (for the 3rdtime) in the CCT. Forbes and the Bucs profited greatly with Cinci transfer Guyn and Juco Cromer turning on the jets to lead a 78 PPG offense. A gutsy underdog call on the SOCON dog!
Ralph Michaels – Cal Sports
#594 3* UC Santa Barbara -4.5 Northern Illinois 5:30 PM
(Cal Sports 4*)
While Northern Illinois has a better record 21-12 versus 18-13 for Santa Barbara this certainly helps us as the line should be much higher. The Gauchos have faced the #86 toughest schedule while the Huskies faced the #200. While playing the more difficult schedule Santa Barbara also played an eye opening 20 of their 31 games away from home and went 12-8 SU as well has winning 9 off their last 10 games outright. Northern Illinois went 18-1 at home so when they ventured out on the road they were only 3-11 with their last win away from home almost 2 1/2 months ago on January 12th. The Huskies also finished the season going 5-9 SU their lst 14 games overall. This would be a regular Cal Sports 5* but with without having played a game in 17 days I will knock it down to a Cal Sports 4*
Toronto has had a ton of success against the Thunder covering the last 5 games against them. They get to take on the Thunder here off of a big time win against the Spurs so they will be on an emotional high. Ok City is pretty bad on the road at 13-21 ATS, take the Raptors and the points here to get a cover on Monday night. Thank you and good luck.
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