4-2-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

BOB BALFE

6:05 EST
Rotation #811-812
Oklahoma +2 over Villanova
Buddy Hield is the best player in the country and typically in these tournament great players step up and show us how incredible they are. Nova is a great basketball team, but I don’t think they have the athletic ability to shutdown the starters that the Sooners have. If Nova can get Oklahoma into foul trouble they have a great shot at winning this game, but again I think this game comes down to the final minutes and Hield will take over. Take Oklahoma.

8:45 EST
Rotation #813-814
UNC -9.5 over Syracuse
It was wild seeing the NIT Final Four teams have better RPI ratings than Cuse. This is a great basketball team with a hell of a coach, but today they go up against in my opinion the best team in the nation. UNC is too athletic and will get second chance points. Syracuse is not a good offensive team and just can keep up with a superior team in this type of game. This might be close for the first half, but the magic for the Orange should run out. Take UNC.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Allen Eastman CBB


7-Unit Play. Take #813 Syracuse (+9.5) over North Carolina (8:45 p.m., Saturday, April 2)

The Orange have proven that their defensive capabililties are good enough to keep pace and even beat the teams they have faced in the NCAA Tournament. I do feel that this Carolina team is the biggest, strongest, and most athletic team the Orange have faced and their size will give Cuse difficulties. I also feel however, that the momentum that the Orange have right now is strong enough to keep this game close. The points are a "must grab." Syracuse will have the advantage in coaching in this game as Roy Williams is terribly overrated. North Carolina is where they are due to the players and not the coach. Take the points here as the Cuse is 6-0 ATS in their last six games versus teams with a winning percentage of .600 or more.

Allen Eastman

[Can'tPickAWinner]

We Pick Sports

NCAA: (Season -68.85*) Villanova/Oklahoma Over 144.5 (-110) 5* 6:00 ET

Syracuse +9 (-110) 4* 8:50 ET

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Johnny Goodtimes - 1-1, -0.3* last night.

Home Run: (CBB Season -12.2*) (CBB HR Plays are 7-10)


Villanova -2.5 4 Units

Syracuse +9 4 Units

[Can'tPickAWinner]

JOE GAVAZZI

NCAA Final Four
NRG Stadium, Houston, TX
Villanova (-2) vs. Oklahoma 6:05 ET
Oklahoma and Villanova meet in the Final Four lid lifter at NRG Stadium in Houston, TX. The game is slated for a 6:05 ET tip, as televised by TBS TV. These two met earlier this season in Hawaii on December 7th. The Sooners bolted to an early lead and never looked back, recording a (78-75) victory. Much of that margin came on 3 point differential. Oklahoma made (14) 3 pointers in that game (4 each by Hield and Cousins), while Villanova could knock down just 4/32 from behind the arc. That difference of (10) 3 pointers translates to 30 points!
Today, the Wildcats are looking to get their revenge for one of only 5 losses this season. That includes an outstanding record in the Big East of 16-2 SU. In the Wildcats only revenge game of the year against Providence, they won on the road (72-60) as 5 point road chalk after suffering their only home loss of the season (82-76) as 13 point home favorite January 24th. Villanova has been scorching opponents all season long with a 4 perimeter attack, surrounding quality big man, Ochefu in the paint. The steadying hand of senior PG Arcidiacono runs the show with slashers and shooters such as Jenkins and Hart offering support. After losing to Seton Hall in the Big East CCT Final (69-67), the Wildcats have stormed the NCAA handling increasingly more difficult opposition. With an 86-56 win over Asheville and an 87-68 win over Iowa, a 92-69 win over Miami and a 64-59 win over Kansas. Along the way, they have covered those four games by an amazing 54 points. Thus entering on a 4-0 SU ATS run, off a straight up dog win over the Tourney’s No. 1 seed, Kansas. That’s a bit too rich for my blood. Granted, Villanova is a (8.7) 3* fundamental team. These teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tourney, when NOT facing another 3* fundamental team. Oklahoma is NOT with a negative net TO margin. Just to remind you, 3* fundamental teams have a positive rebound margin, a positive assist/TO ratio and a positive TO margin. The Wildcats drive and dish offense averages 78 PPG on 47% shooting (they hold opponents to just 40%). Nova knocks down 8.7 triples per game and seals the deal with 78% foul shooting. Impressive to be sure, yet our vote for today’s winner is the Oklahoma Sooners.
Anyone who watched the best college basketball game of the year on January 4th saw Oklahoma lose a 3 OT game at Kansas, where the Jayhawks rarely lose (61-2 SU L4Y). Despite losing that game, the Sooners showed enough for them to be widely considered as the No. 1 team in the nation. Until the NCAA Tourney, however, they did not play to their potential. Since January 2nd, the 29-7 SU Sooner team went only 13-7 SU, following their loss to WVU in the CCT by a score of (69-67). That defeat also dropped them to a slide of 6-16 ATS since a cover vs. Washington St. (December 16th). But, fortunes have turned for the Sooners at just the right time. After wins vs. Baker and VCU (the first weekend), the Sooners played incredible basketball in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, winning virtually wire-to-wire against A&M (77-63) and Oregon (80-63) covering those games by a combined 29 points. Now peaking at the perfect time, I believe the Sooners have the potential to win this event. Four experienced players in Hield, Cousins, Woodard and Spangler (over 100 consecutive starts together) have added Latin to their starting rotation for a group that clicks together with outstanding chemistry. These Sooners score 81 PPG and knock down an amazing 10.4 triples at 43% from behind the arc. An outburst of 14 triples, as in the first game vs. Villanova, simply would not surprise! And, if the game comes down to crunch-time, we are more than ready to put our money on “the player.” That, of course, would be Buddy Hield (the best NCAA Basketball player in the nation).

Syracuse vs North Carolina (-9-) 8:50 ET
Syracuse and North Carolina tip off the night cap of the Final Four at a scheduled time of 8:50 eastern Saturdayevening as televised by TBS TV. These ACC Conference foes met twice this season. In Boeheim’s return from a nine game suspension the Orange hosted the Heels at the Carrier Dome. North Carolina prevailed 84-73, despite shooting just 3/16 from behind the arc. The rematch came on February 29th in North Carolina’s LHG. Again, North Carolina prevailed, despite knocking down just 6 of 25 triples. A combined 9/41 from behind the arc is only 22%. If you can only knock down 1 out of 5 three point shots against the Syracuse zone, it seems unlikely that you would get the sweep. That is the scary part of making a selection on the Orange, as they lost both games despite Boeheim’s fabled 2-3 zone doing its job. Syracuse did little better from long range, going a combined 14-51 (27%) in the two games.
With the best statistical numbers in the Tournament, North Carolina is a (17.2) three star fundamental team. To again remind everyone the meaning of that rating, you are a three star fundamental team if you have a positive rebound margin (8.2), a positive TO/assist margin (+6.8), and a positive net TO margin (+2.2). The sum of those, 17.2, is the highest among any team in the NCAA. It is no surprise that North Carolina has made it to the Final Four. Note that when three star fundamental teams play teams who do NOT have a three star rating, these teams are 22-15 ATS (60%) in the NCAA Tournament this year. That is another scary reason to favor the Orange in this matchup. North Carolina enters this game with a 9 game winning streak; 5 more than any of the other Final Four participants, none of whom won their CCT. Since the post season (CCT) began, Carolina has whipped Pitt by 17, Notre Dame by 32, Virginia by 4, FGCU by 16, Providence by 19, Indiana by 15, and Notre Dame (again) by 14. With Johnson, Meeks, and Jackson up front, along with Page and Berry on the perimeter, there are few weaknesses for North Carolina. But remember that Achilles heel of North Carolina, which finds them knocking down just 5.4 triples per game at 31%.
For a team who wasn’t supposed to make the post season party (they lost 5 of 6 going in, including a 3 game losing streak), the Orange have done quite well for themselves. To date in this event, they have recorded a 19 point win over Dayton, beat MTSU by 25, took out Gonzaga by 3, and beat Virginia by 6 after trailing last weekend in that game by as many as 16 points in the closing minutes of the game. For those keeping score, that is 4-0 SU ATS, off consecutive underdog wins, with point spread coverage of 64 points (16 PPG) in the NCAA Tournament.
There are few results that would surprise me in this game, as any outcome within 15 points of the line is thinkable. The athletic, but very young, pressure defense of the Orange that succeeded so well against Virginia could actually backfire on them against the North Carolina team that thrives in the open court. Rather than resulting in a 6 point win as they did vs Virginia, it could result in a 20 point North Carolina blowout. And Boeheim knows it. At the other end of the spectrum, the Syracuse zone appears to be an ideal weapon against North Carolina. Their athletic front line can pack the paint against the larger North Carolina front, yet they are rangy enough, all starters 6’4 or taller, to sprint to the perimeter to defend three pointers (the zone will look much like a pack line defense in this example). In any event, Boeheim, who has coached it for 40 years, is well aware of how to use the strength of his players and hide their weaknesses against every type of opponent.
With North Carolina a bit over confident after beating Syracuse twice, it would be no surprise to find the Orange competitive throughout. As described above, this game could well be decided in the closing minutes when the Orange are forced to pick up the pace if behind. Lean to the Orange in a game that I believe Syracuse could actually win.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold Medal Club CBB Selections

812 Oklahoma
813 Syracuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

National Sports Service


5* Syracuse +9.5 over N. Carolina (NCAAB)


3* Villanova/Oklahoma UNDER 145 (NCAAB)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mike Lee

3* Chicago -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

EZWINNERS

Final Four Selections

5* Moneyline *Parlay*
Villanova -$140 / UNC -$550
($500 to win $500)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Executive

350 - vill
250 - vill/Oklahoma over

[golden contender]

GC: NBA Play

Saturday the 100% 2016 NCAAB Tournament Play of the Year headlines the card along with a 25-1 NBA Power system play. NBA Comp play below.


The NBA Comp play is on the Indiana Pacers at 7:35 eastern. The Pacers are off a blowout loss by 20 at home to Orlando and will come out motivated here against a Philly team they beat by 27 here earlier in the year. The Pacers are 6-0 ats after allowing 50% or higher from the field and 5-0 ats on the road off a loss. The Sixers are 0-11 ats as a home dog from +9.5 to +12. Home dogs of 5 or more with no rest that were road dogs of 10 or more vs an opponent off a home favored spread loss by 14 or more while scoring 90 or more fail to cover over 85% of the time. Play on the Pacers. On Saturday the 2016 NCAAB 100% Tournament Game Of the Year is up along with a 25-1 NBA Banger system and more. Jump on now and out the most powerful data available on your side. For the NBA Fee pick. Take Indiana. GC

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence late phones

3* Oklahoma
opin. on Cuse

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Lang
My 75 Dime selection is on Villanova over Oklahoma. The current line on this game is -2 in Vegas and offshore. Be sure to shop around for the best line available.

ANALYSIS
They will get their revenge tonight.

I get the fact the Sooners drilled Nova by 23 points in Pearl Harbor back in December but rest assured, this is a different Villanova team the Sooners will see today.

Listen, you let a team shoot 46% from the floor, 14 of 26 from 3 while you shoot 31% and 4 of 32 from 3, yes sport fans, you are going to get blown out.

Final 78-55.

Now fast forward to now.

In watching Villanova in this tourney, they have absolutely been dominant in every single game going 4-0 SU and ATS.

After losing to Seton Hall in the big east championship game by two 69-67, they have proceeded to roll through this tourney with wins by 30, 21, 23 and 4.

Ask UNC Asheville how good Nova is playing losing 86-56, or Iowa who lost 87-68 or Miami who lost 92-69 and of course the overall #1 seed Kansas who lost 64-59.

To put it bluntly, this is a whole different animal the Sooners will see tonight.

As for Oklahoma, they to have arrived here after a two point loss in their conference tourney ironically enough by the same exact score Nova lost, 69-67.

However, in their 4 games to arrive here, they struggled to put away Cal Bakersfield in round one and were on the ropes in round two against VCU.

They did take care of business in the sweet sixteen against Texas A&M and the Elite 8 over Oregon but don't let those 2 wins lead you to believe they are peaking.

They are not.

As well as the Sooners matched up with the Aggies and the Ducks, they will have their hands full with Jay Wright and his Wildcats all night long tonight.

With tape of the first meeting, with 5 days to prep his team, with as good as the Wildcats played against Kansas, they will be just as good today.

Revenge is a dish best served up cold and when the smoke clears tonight, it will be Villanova doing what they have done this entire tourney so far: win and cover.

Villanova is 34-15-1 their last 51 non conference games and 39-18-2 ATS their last 58 games versus a team with a winning SU record.

The Sooners are 3-7 ATS last 10 tourney games, 3-10 ATS last 13 games versus a team with a winning % above .600.

Last but not least, 3-11 ATS last 14 games versus a team with a winning SU record.

It's been a great ride for Buddy Hield and these Sooners but the bottom line is they get taken down by a team just playing better basketball right now.

Congrats to Nova nation as they punch their ticket to the championship game

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Outsourced play of the day - Anthony Walsh

NY Rangers game under 5 (+105)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Kelso

100 Sooners