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Wednesday, April 27, 2016
Millionaires
Heat (-6) over Hornets
8:00 PM (EDT) -- AmericanAirlines Arena
Game time conditions: | Temp: ° | Wind from the at mph | Cloud cover:
No Limit
Rockets (+9½) over Warriors
7:30 PM (EDT) -- ORACLE Arena
Game time conditions: | Temp: ° | Wind from the at mph | Cloud cover:
Perfect Play
Clippers (+3) over Trail Blazers
7:00 PM (EDT) -- Staples Center
PerfectPlay--LA Clippers + All we can say is WOW! The Clippers went from -8.5 in game two at home to +3 at home. That is incredible. First of all, they have learned how to play without Blake Griffin as he was out for what seemed like forever (45 games). Now the Clippers get that chance to rally around Chris Paul getting sidelined with a broken hand. Teams do that the very next game. They still have home court. No one has won a road game yet in this series. The Blazers still play horrible on the road. And the difference of value in the pointspread is too good to ever pass. The Clippers are deep. They have 10 different lineups on the board and most likely will go with a pretty big lineup. They have great players and talented options. The Clippers installed a motion offense for when Paul wasn''t on the floor this season, freeing up Jamal Crawford and Austin Rivers while letting anyone else get the ball moving. That will certainly work. Until Portland finally wins on the road, it''s the same business for the Clippers except instead of laying 8 or 9 points, we get three. That''s what we call great value.
5-Unit Play. #578. Take Over 195.5 LA Clippers vs. Portland (Wednesday @ 10:05pm est)
We roll with the LA Clippers as they hook up against Portland. We understand that there is no Chris Paul and no Blake Griffin and we are ok with that. The Clippers are being underestimated here as they are tied 2-2-2 in this series and this is the first time in a long time that neither of those two stars are playing. These are the type of situations in which teams step up when an elite player is out. We have always believed in a theory that if an elite player is out and the team has an elite coach and subs who used to be starters, in thise case Jeff Green, Josh Smith and Jamal Crawford, a team has the ability to step up. It will be a raucous crowd here in LA who will be up for this game and though this team is not going past the next round and maybe not even past this round, per this game, they will get up for this contest and they will likely do well. A solid home crowd, coming off back to back losses, the motivation to play up for their two key teammates, we like the Clippers to get it done here as an outright underdog. If you are Portland, you will not be as sharp as early on as they will take it a bit easier without Paul and we think that Clippers will come out very strong out of the gates and get it done. As per the Over, note that there will be a lot more perimeter shooting here with Rivers and Crawford in the backcourt and with no Griffin, there will even less post up play and there will be a lot of transition offense between these two teams. Look for the pace of this game to jump up without Paul as when there is less familiarity between the players, the tempo actually picks up because players rely on their athleticism rather than the flow of the game and the game becomes more transitional.
Apr 27 '16, 8:05 PM MLB | Brewers vs Cubs
Play on: Brewers +313
Top Play
Game Analysis 25* graded play on Milwaukee as they take on the Cubs in NL action set to start at 8:05 PM ET. SIM algorithm shows a high probability that Milwaukee will win this game. Arrieta is on the hill for the Cubs and coming off a no-hitter. Generally speaking, and not related specifically to the SIM projections, starters coming off a no-hitter are not on the ‘A’ game – expection is that Vandermeer fellow. Technical Discussion Points Supporting this graded play is a proven system posting a 29-22 mark good for 57% winners, BUT has made a whopping 45.1 units/unit wagered averaging a +231 DOG. Play on all underdogs with a money line of +200 or more (MILWAUKEE) struggling hitting team batting less than .250 with a cold starting pitcher posting an ERA more than 7.00 over his last 3 starts and is now facing a good NL starting pitcher posting an ERA less than 3.70. The following game situations match the SIM projections and my compiled research for the outcome of this game. The Chicago Cubs are a money losing 457-411 (-93.3 Units) against the money line vs. teams outscored by opp by 0.5 or more runs/game on the season since 1997; 432-445 (-116.7 Units) against the money line vs. an overused bullpen that pitches more than 3.2 innings per game since 1997; 366-392 (-100.8 Units) against the money line vs. an NL team with a team batting average of .250 or worse since 1997. Fundamental Discussion Points After a tiring no-hitter performance most starters pitch down a peg in their next performance. Arrieta is also facing Aaron Hill who has a .412 batting average and a 1.118 OPS against him. Alex Presley is .500 with and OPS of 1.250 against Arrieta as well. Arrieta won't fair as well as you or Vegas might expect. Pick Milwaukee Brewers.
For Wednesday, Raise the Bar 1500♦ is Miami as the home favorite over Charlotte.At 8:00 am eastern time, the Heat are -5 1/2 points both in Vegas and offshore.
It's crazy how in the West, the home court has not mattered as much as it has in the East, as the Western "heavyweights" continue to win whether at home or on the road.
The same has not been the case in the East, where 3 of the 4 series are still up in the air.
Look for Miami to get back to their winning ways in front of their home crowd.
The Heat crushed the Hornets in Games 1 and 2 on their home floor, but Games 3 and 4 in Charlotte were a total different story, as the Hornets are all even heading on the road for this game in South Beach.
The home team won both games in the playoffs last night, and the home team have now won the last 5 playoffs games since Monday, with the favorite going 22-13 in the 35 postseason games played this year.
Go ahead and lay it with Miami tonight on their home court.
spartan | NBA Sides Wed, 04/27/16 - 10:35 PM
triple-dime bet 580 GSW -9.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 579 HOU Analysis: My lack of respect for the Houston Rockets is no secret to my clients. It's my opinion that all too often when the going get's tough they do indeed get going, to the locker room. I simply do not feel they have either the horses or mental make up to take full advantage of the Warriors here without Curry on the floor. As, I might add, I suspect others will have on further down this playoff road. The Warriors want to close this thing out, and the faster the better and being back hoŽme in the Oracle I can see them doing it in convincing fashion. Champions tend to thrive in these types of conditions. I strongly feel Golden State shows the mettle that helped forge them into champions and Houston shows once again why they are actually just pretenders and not true contenders. I love Golden State here at a Triple Star level guys.
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