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Two Weeks Ago: We skipped last weekend's Bristol race, but two weeks ago, back in Michigan, we nailed Carl Edwards at a +600 wager. Since we didn't have a head-to-head selection, that gave us a weekly win of 0.67 units on 0.5 units wagered, a return of 134%. For the season, that gives us a profit of 6.69 units on 31.5 units wagered, a return of 21.2%. We've also given you winning weeks in 18 of 23 events. (Note that if you'd eschewed the relatively conservative betting pattern we outline below, and simply bet one unit per wager we recommend, last week you'd have won four units on three units wagered, a return of 133%; for the season, that would leave you with a profit of 16.73 units on 89 units wagered, a return of 18.8%. But there's clearly a bit more week-to-week risk associated with that strategy.)
Take Carl Edwards (+400), 1/6th unit. We're back at a big wide-open two-miler Sunday night for the Labor Day weekend race at Fontana, which is a very similar track to the Michigan course where the Smokeless Set ran just two weeks ago. Edwards won the first time around in Fontana, back in February, and plus won that Michigan race going away in mid-August. He deserves to be a pretty heavy favorite here.
Take Kyle Busch (+400), 1/6th unit. Then again, how can you not pick the No. 18 car? Busch has been good on every track type under the sun this season, and it's unlikely that he'll suddenly lay an egg a week after he and Edwards got into a heated post-race skirmish at Bristol. I expect to see both of NASCAR's leading drivers up near the front, duking it out for a win in this, one of the circuit's marathon events.
Take David Ragan (+3000), 1/6th unit. And if we're going to take two favorites with our first two picks, let's go out on a slender limb with the third, shall we? Now, granted, Mr. Ragan has never won a Sprint Cup race. But his best career finish, a third place, came two weeks ago at the Michigan track which is so much like Fontana. Roush rides extraordinarily well at both Fontana and Michigan, and Ragan is currently 13th in points, giving him a spectacular chance to make his first Chase for the Championship. Yeah, this is a long shot. But I give Ragan a chance to stick around for most of the afternoon and evening, and then shock the world by winning his first career Cup race.
I just mentioned that the biggest public play on the board was Connecticut, I take it back, the biggest public play on the board is indeed Detroit - on the road as a 72% favorite over Chicago. This nearly outlines the fact that Chicago is likely to win this game outright - Remember, it is Detroit that beat Chicago 66-63 earlier this year and Chicago had already defeated this team 76-59 at home. This is the same Chicago team that beat Washington and New York on the road outright and is a solid 8-1-1 ATS of late as well, there is no reason why Chicago should not do exceptionally well today as well.
Bottom line is, this is the same Detroit team that has been terrible of late as both of these teams are headed in opposite directions. Yes, this team defeated New York at home but remember, they were down portions of that game, this team lost 4 in a row including by 18 on the road at Houston and Powell, Pierson and Cheryl Ford are all out for this team in this game. This team has the bite to do well at home, but on the road, with Chicago playing well, having revenge and coming off big outright road wins themselves as they eye the playoffs, the public gets buried here while we cash
SUNDAY SERVICE REPORT
ATS..................................3*Louisville
Alatex..............................Superplay: Kentucky
Bob Akmen......................4*Louisville
Boxer Sports....................3*Kentucky
Charlie Sports..................500*Colorado
.........................................30*Louisv ille
Dave Cokin.......................3*Kentucky & Kentucky/Louisville(Under)
Director Sports..................Colorado
Gold Sheet........................Regular: Kentucky/Louisville(Under)
Greg Roberts.....................3*Kentucky
Jim Feist...........................5*Colorado
Kelso Sturgeon.................15*Colorado 5*Kentucky
Las Vegas Sports..............10*Kentucky
LT Profits.........................Kentucky/Louisville(Under)
Marc Lawrence.................100%Louisville
Northcoast........................3*Colorado
Northcoast(Newsletter)......Louisville 28, Kentucky 23
.........................................Colorado 31, Colorado St 17
Prestige Sports.................Colorado State
Sebastian.........................50*Kentucky/Louisville(Over) 20*Colorado
Sports Authority................Colorado
Sports Bank......................300*Louisville
Sports Doctor...................50*Colorado
Texas Sports Brokers......10*Kentucky/Louisville(Over)
VIP Lock Club..................250*Colorado State
Wayne Root......................Chairman Of The Board: Colorado
Windy City Sports............7*Colo/ColoSt(U)
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