12-18-08

[Guest]

Bob Balfe

Jacksonville +6.5 over Indianapolis (21-10 YTD!)
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, however this team is banged up big time and it is not good for them to be playing on such a short week of rest. Joseph Addai might not play and even if he does I do not see the Colts running the ball on the Jaguars defensive line. Payton Manning is going to have to throw the ball a lot and it doesn't help that Marvin Harrison is out tonight. To make matters worst Dallas Clark is banged up and so if 60% of the offensive line. This Colts team could be in major trouble tonight and for the rest of the regular season. The Jaguars had a very disappointing season, but there is no denying that they have a load of talent. This team underachieved and would like to do nothing more than make Indy wait another week to make the playoffs or perhaps miss them entirely. Jacksonville has a big offensive line going against a very undersized Colts Defense. Indianapolis is even hurting on defense with their LB's shuffled and Freeney and Sanders nursing injuries. Jacksonville already beat the Colts on the road this season and match up very well today. This is worth a moneyline play of +220. Take the Jaguars.

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

Dave Cokin

(713) WESTERN KENTUCKY
(714) SOUTH ALABAMA
Take "(713) WESTERN KENTUCKY"

Free opinion is Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers are a pretty decent team, not as good as last year to be sure, but still very capable of making noise again in the Sun Belt. They were awful last game as they were annihilated at Evansville, but watch for Western Kentucky to bounce back with a much better effort tonight in a big game at South Alabama. I look for a tight skirmish that goes to the wire, and I'm backing the visiting Hilltoppers plus the points.

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

Wild Bill

Over 44 Colts-Jags (5 units)

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

NFL



Week 16


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Thursday, December 18

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INDIANAPOLIS (10 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (5 - 9) - 12/18/2008, 8:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 34-54 ATS (-25.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-2 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Trend Sheet
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Thursday, December 18

8:15 PM INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
Indianapolis is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Indianapolis

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

NHL


Thursday, December 18

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Trend Sheet
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7:00 PM FLORIDA vs. CAROLINA
Florida is 1-15-1 SU in its last 17 games when playing on the road against Carolina
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Florida's last 6 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 13-4 SU in its last 17 games when playing Florida
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games when playing Florida


7:00 PM PITTSBURGH vs. ATLANTA
Pittsburgh is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Atlanta is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh


7:00 PM ST. LOUIS vs. WASHINGTON
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of St. Louis's last 5 games
Washington is 1-9-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis
Washington is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis


7:00 PM TORONTO vs. BOSTON
Toronto is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Boston
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Toronto's last 7 games when playing Boston
Boston is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Boston's last 7 games at home


7:30 PM COLORADO vs. TAMPA BAY
Colorado is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Colorado's last 11 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-3-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Colorado
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home


7:30 PM PHILADELPHIA vs. MONTREAL
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing on the road against Montreal
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Montreal
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Montreal's last 5 games at home
Montreal is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games


7:30 PM SAN JOSE vs. DETROIT
San Jose is 4-16-1 SU in its last 21 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of San Jose's last 9 games when playing on the road against Detroit
Detroit is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing San Jose
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games when playing San Jose


8:30 PM COLUMBUS vs. DALLAS
Columbus is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Columbus's last 9 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Dallas's last 5 games
Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home


9:00 PM NASHVILLE vs. PHOENIX
Nashville is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Nashville is 7-14 SU in its last 21 games on the road
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Nashville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Phoenix's last 7 games when playing at home against Nashville

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

NHL
Write-up


Thursday, December 18

Hot teams
-- Washington won four in row, eight of last ten games.
-- Flyers won their last five games, scoring 23 goals.
-- Panthers won six of their last eight games.
-- Bruins won 19 of their last 23 games. Maple Leafs won last three in a row, allowing total of five goals.
-- Sharks won 11 of their last 13 games. Red Wings won five of their last seven games.
-- Colorado is 5-1 in game following its last six losses.
-- Blue Jackets won three of their last four games.

Cold teams
-- Blues lost their last four games, outscored 21-11.
-- Canadiens lost last three games, scoring total of four goals.
-- Carolina lost eight of its last eleven games.
-- Thrashers lost 11 of their last 14 games. Penguins lost four of last five games.
-- Lightning lost 14 of their last 16 games.
-- Dallas is 1-10 this season in the game following a win.
-- Predators lost three of their last four games. Coyotes lost last two and four of last six games- their last two games both went OT.

Totals
-- Last seven St Louis games went over the total.
-- Last five Montreal games stayed under the total; Flyers' last four went over the total. .
-- Eight of last ten Carolina games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last eleven Atlanta games went over the total.
-- Over is 10-2 in Boston's last dozen home games.
-- Five of last six San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Four of last five Colorado games went over the total.
-- Last eight Columbus games stayed under the total.
-- Six of last seven Nashville games stayed under the total.

Series Records
-- Home side won last two St Louis-Washington games.
-- Flyers won five of their last six games vs Carolina.
-- Carolina won 13 of last 16 games against the Panthers.
-- Penguins won four of last five games vs Atlanta.
-- Bruins won four of last five games against Toronto.
-- Sharks won last two games vs Detroit, after losing previous six.
-- Colorado won its last three games vs Tampa Bay: 4-2/3-0/4-3.
-- Columbus won seven of last ten games against Dallas.
-- Predators lost four of their last five visits to Phoenix.

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

NBA
Write-up


Thursday, December 18

Hot Teams
-- Orlando won, covered six of their last seven games. Spurs won five of their last six games.
-- Suns won four of their last five games.

Cold Teams
-- Trailblazers lost three of last four, covered one of last eight games.

Totals
-- Five of last seven Orlando games stayed under the total.
-- Nine of last ten Phoenix games went over the total.

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Trend Sheet
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8:00 PM SAN ANTONIO vs. ORLANDO
San Antonio is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing on the road against Orlando
The total has gone OVER in 8 of San Antonio's last 9 games when playing on the road against Orlando
Orlando is 5-0 ATS in its last 5 games
Orlando is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games


10:30 PM PHOENIX vs. PORTLAND
Phoenix is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games
Phoenix is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
Portland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix
Portland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Phoenix

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

Raging Bull Handicappers

9-4 yesterday

Here is the early card for 12/18

UEFA Cup Soccer (2-0 yesterday)

2* Standard Liege/VfB Stuttgart over 2.5 -125
3* PSG/Twente Enschede over 2.5 -110

NBA (4-0 yesterday)

2* Magic -3

NHL (0-3 yesterday)

1* Canadiens -125
1* Lightning -125
1* Stars -150

NCAAB (3-1 yesterday)

Nothing at this time, will have plays in the afternoon.

NFL - will have plays later

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

Pointwise NFL 12/18

THURSDAY
INDIANAPOLIS 24 - Jacksonville 19 - (8:15 - NFL) -- Seven straight wins for the
Colts, with but 3 covers in that stretch, with their last 3 RGs decided by just 4, 3,
& 4 pts straightup. But this is a revenger, & Peyton is in synch (28-of-37 for 318
yds vs hapless Lions), & now 23/12 for the season. Jags in off snapping 4-game
SU slide, as well as 0-6 ATS home run slide. Thus, the dog is now 15-2 ATS in
J'Ville games. The Jags are 9-2 ATS in Dec, vs an opponent off a pair of wins, as
well as 8-2 ATS as division dogs. Another? Okay, they are 6-2 ATS vs the Colts.
And Indy is just a 1-8 ATS chalk, off a double digit win vs an opponent off a win.

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

KEVIN O’NEILL’S
THE MAX
The Maximum Profit Football Weekly
• Volume 9 Issue 18 December 18th-22nd, 2008 •

NFL

Thursday, December 18h, 2008

@Jaguars (+6½) over Colts
Selection and Analysis by Dave Fobare
In their 31-21 win over the toothless Lions the Colts became the first team in NFL history to reel off a 7+ game winning streak in 6 consecutive seasons. Impressive on its face, but the Colts are just 3-3-1 ATS over that streak, and not one of the last 5 wins have come over opponents with a combined record of 19-49-1. Indy is just 5-4-1 ATS in their 10 wins as seven of those have come by less than the touchdown Jacksonville is receiving here. And the undermanned Lions played the Colts well despite the travails of QB Dan Orlovsky, who made his return to the lineup after just 4 weeks off recuperating a throwing hand with multiple fractures.

I love playing against high scoring teams, and my database pops a negative 32-63 ATS system based on the Colts last 2 offensive outputs of 31 and 35 points. These public darlings have failed to cover in this spot by an average of 6 points per game and this spot is 0-2 in 2008.

As we reach the end of the season my database contains a number of special situations for the occasion. The Colts will finish up the 2008 campaign at home, and therefore apply to a negative 7-30 ATS "last game lookahead" play. This play works particularly well when our team is on an
extended winning streak. These teams are not only 0-6 ATS when entering Game 15 off four or more wins, but have won straight up only once in that span despite an average price of -9. Let's not forget the Jaguars either. Off their 20-16 upset win over Green Bay they qualify in a 25-6 ATS "bad team off a win" system that won its only 2008
appearance on Cincinnati in their infamous 13-13 tie against the Eagles.

The Colts looked disinterested against the 0-14 Lions, and while they will not look past a 4-9 Jags outfit that beat them 23-21 back in the third game of the season. But the Colts have to work a bit too hard to score most of their points. Detroit has by far the worst secondary in the league
and Peyton Manning could only go up top successfully once all game. Indy will be able to move the chains on Jacksonville, but with a diminished quick strike ability and a much sexier game at home against the Titans awaiting
them next week I expect the Colts to stub their toe just enough to let the Jags stay with them until the end. Indianapolis by 1

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

MARC LAWERENCE PLAYBOOK

NFL

Thursday, December 18th

Indianapolis over JACKSONVILLE by 3
If momentum is a key to a team’s playoff hopes then the Colts are playing
like locksmiths. Seven wins in a row and counting, Indy invades Jacksonville with the added incentive of revenge from a 23-21 home loss in Week Two earlier this season. The jamb in their plans is a nasty late season angle that fi nds dogs in Last Home Games in money-making moods when playing off SU underdog wins as these teams are 34-15-1 ATS, including 17-5-1 ATS against an opponent off back-to-back wins. Despite the Ponies’ 5-1 SU and 5-0-1 ATS log on Thursdays, we’ll stand up and Yale with the Jags.

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

Nelly’s Green Sheet

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18, 2008 Indianapolis (-6½) JACKSONVILLE (45) 7:15 PM

The NFL network had to be thrilled to land this match-up before the season started but it much less appealing with the Jaguars completely
collapsing this season. Indianapolis has not been dominant but the Colts have now won seven consecutive games and should coast into the
playoffs as the top wild card team. The Jaguars snapped a four-game losing streak with its first ATS win at home all season long last week but the offense has topped 20 points just once in the last eight games. Jacksonville actually features a far superior run defense to the Colts and the Jaguars could be a dangerous home underdog. COLTS BY 3

[Guest]

Re: 12-18-08

THE GOLD SHEET

NFL

THURSDAY, DECEMBER 18
*Indianapolis 23 - JACKSONVILLE 13—Not convinced last week’s rally
vs. Green Bay a late-season “buy” signal on banged-up, going-nowhere
Jacksonville, which was down six offensive starters as well as top CB Rashean Mathis. Although Indy (no win by more than 4 on road) not a consistent margin team TY, Colts (7 straight wins) better synchronized than they were when Jags ball-controlled Indy to death at Lucas Oil Stadium Sept. 21. Colts motivated to wrap up a wild card before closing regular season finale vs. powerful Tennessee. TV—NFL (08-Jack. 23-INDY 21...J.25-19 J.48/236 I.19/114 I.15/29/2/211 J.16/22/1/167 J.0 I.0) (07-Indy 29-JACK. 7...I.24-18 I.33/141 J.27/117 I.23/37/1/243 J.17/36/2/109 I.0 J.1) (07-INDY 28-Jack. 25...J.27-19 J.31/168 I.25/63 I.20/29/1/279 J.24/29/1/243 I.0 J.1) (08-Jack. +4' 23-21; 07-Indy -3 29-7, INDY -6' 28-25...SR: Indianapolis 11-4)

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-08

Bob Balfe's Huge Special Release Colts at Jaguars

Tonight will be a great divisional game between the Colts and Jaguars. Its not often that I release moneylines, but when I do they usually cash the ticket! The circumstances in this game call for us to take a shot. Read my writeup below.

Jacksonville +6.5 over Indianapolis (21-10 YTD!)
The Colts can clinch a playoff spot with a win tonight, however this team is banged up big time and it is not good for them to be playing on such a short week of rest. Joseph Addai might not play and even if he does I do not see the Colts running the ball on the Jaguars defensive line. Payton Manning is going to have to throw the ball a lot and it doesn't help that Marvin Harrison is out tonight. To make matters worst Dallas Clark is banged up and so if 60% of the offensive line. This Colts team could be in major trouble tonight and for the rest of the regular season. The Jaguars had a very disappointing season, but there is no denying that they have a load of talent. This team underachieved and would like to do nothing more than make Indy wait another week to make the playoffs or perhaps miss them entirely. Jacksonville has a big offensive line going against a very undersized Colts Defense. Indianapolis is even hurting on defense with their LB's shuffled and Freeney and Sanders nursing injuries. Jacksonville already beat the Colts on the road this season and match up very well today. This is worth a moneyline play of +220. Take the Jaguars.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-18-08

RAS

La Tech +3.5
Fresno St. -5.5