6-16-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Big Al

Warriors

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Indian Cowboy

3 England
2 Italy
3 USA
2 Croatia
5 Ukrain3
3 Germany
3 Germany game over 2.5

3 units Play. #26282. Take England -200 over Whales (Thursday @ 9am est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
England's Euro 2016 run started with what can only be called a huge black eye, both on and off the pitch. England were able to control a match they should have won by 2 or 3 goals with almost 60 percent possession and the faithful in the stands and at home were finally getting what they wanted... Until stoppage time when a lapse by Danny Rose and Chris Smallings inability to cover the cross allowed Russia to snatch a point before chaos broke out again. The positives for England were the lions share of possession, 15 shots with 7 on goal. The negatives were that only one of those shots on goal made it into the back of the net and 6 offsides show this team are undisciplined. Starting out in a 4-3-3 did England no favors as well, once the side slid into a traditional 4-2-2 we saw a goal. This team is much better than a 1-1 score line. Wales on the other hand are flying high after Hal Robson-Kanu grabbed the winner inside 10 minutes left. In a match Wales should have dominated, they were lucky in the counter attack and Garth Bale proved why he is one of the best players in the world and is in his prime. The team had 9 shots with 8 on goal and the lack of possession did not prove to be a weak point as Walsh are currently top of the group. But see a stronger more talented English side come into Lens and come away with all three points. Wayne Rooney may be dropped for this second match as Roy Hodgson's needs to fine the right mix that can score. See Jamie Vardu get his chance and England win 2-1 to go top of the group.

2-Unit Play. #26274. Take Italy -125 over Sweden (Thursday @ 9am est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
Italy showed the world that it's glory days are not behind them and on the other hand Sweden were gifted an equalizer by the Irish and showed the world that Zaltan may be great but one man does not make a team. Sweden were embarrassed by what turned out to be a much more superior team. The Swedes were unorganized and with how Italy played the opener, this will be another match and tournament for Sweden to forget out. Now Italy surprised a lot of people including myself with its 2-0 win over a promising Belgium side that we'll just has not lived up to its promise. Italy was able to pass, possess, and score. Buffon was amazing in goal and the Italians look like contenders again. Should the older legs of De Rossi, Buffon, and Chiellini hold up Italy will embarrass the Swedes again. Zaltan will find his way, but see Italy win 3-1.

3-Unit Play. Take United States +170 over Ecuador (Thursday @ 9:30pm est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
In the first quarter final match the USA find themselves winners of Group A and will face Ecuador. The last three matches between the two sides has been split 1-1-1 with both side securing a 1-0 victor at home. Well the USA is home and coming off a two match winning streak that has seen the USA put 5 goals in the net. The USA will be without DeAndre Yedlin who picked up two yellow cards in about 90 seconds. Yedlin's pace will be missed and would have been a perfect match to counter Ecuador's Antonio Velencia's speed. This match for the USA will be able not making mistakes, starting out quick and pressing early. The USA saw what happens in its first match against Colombia when it started flat, you loss. Ecuador's key will be to keep the USA off its game plan and put pressure on Bead Guzan in the USA goal. Ecuador's players to watch are both Valencia's and Jamie Ayovi. Ecuador are the stronger square, but the USA and Clint Dempsey playing at CentryLink field in Seattle with one of the best soccer atmospheres in the USA will be hard to beat. The USA win 2-1.

2-Unit Play. #26277. Take Croatia -115 over Czeck Republic (Thursday @ 12pm est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
It was not a surprise that the Czech Republic dropped its opener to the current European Champions, Spain. But what is a surprise is the 1-0 score line. The Czechs were able to hold its own against a much stronger team that controlled the possession and made life difficult. However all of the Czech's shots were on goal and look for Tomas Rosicky to be a difference maker it the Czechs have any chance in this match, yet it will also depend on on again off again Petr Cech in goal. Their opponents, Croatia are a perinatal contender, at least to make it to the knock out stages of major tournaments. Croatia seems surprised at how strong a side Turkey was to face, but ultimately came out on top. The Czechs want to still this match from Croatia, but Luka Modic will again prove too strong and the attacking nature of this side will push the Czechs aside winning 2-0.

5-unit-Play. #26266. Take Ukraine -170 over Northern Ireland (Thursday @ 12pm est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
The Ukraine surprised most who watched its first match against Germany as they held the current World Cup champions to only one goal until the ageless wonder Bastain Schweinsteiger scored after just three minutes of coming onto the pitch in the 93rd minute. This is a very organized team that plays a determined 4-2-3-1 formation. The Ukraine did not manage a ton of shots, but 3 of the 4 were on goal not wasting any opportunity. The keeper Andriy Pyator will make his 15th appearance against the Northern Irish after having 7 solid saves against the Germans. Neither the Ukrainians nor the Northern Irish had much possession in either match, both in the mid 30 percent range. There is not much hope for the Northern Irish in this match as they were only able to muster up one shot during its opening match against a strong Poland side. Could they park the bus again? They did stop one of the most prolific goal scores in the world today, Robert Lewandowski from scoring. See Ukraine take advantage of its discipline and ability to get the box into the box and on frame as they are too much for the Northern Irish, 2-0 Ukraine.
3-Unit Play. #26272. Take Over 2.5 Goals Germany vs. Poland (-125) (Thursday @ 3pm est)
These two rival nations collide in a huge match as both won their first group stage matches. Poland will definitely be more likely to accept a draw, but considering how much they want to earn a win against rivals Germany, don't expect them to back down whatsoever. Germany are a power side who assert their will on opponents. Both teams' agendas will make for an entertaining match with goals. Look for a 2-2 draw in the end and both teams improving their chances of playing in the knockout stages. Play the 'over' between Germany and Poland.

3-unit pick. #26270. Take Germany -172 over Poland (Thursday @ 3pm est) (Graded after regulation time - 90min - plus injury time - if game ends in a DRAW we have a loser)
Neither team faced an opponent in its first match that was much of a treat. Both teams had possession in the mid 60 percent range, but they both lacked finishing. The defending World Cup champions Germany have a lot to prove against its neighbors, Poland. Germany will stick with is traditional 4-2-3-1 but will press Poland even greater in match #2. Often teams play down to its competitors and this was the case for both teams. Germany will have questions about starting Schweinsteiger or leaving him the opportunity to come on as a super sub again. Germany crushed 9 or its 13 shots on goal and have worked on finishing in its last couple of practices. So see some beautiful football for the Germans. There is too much talent in this squad not to put up the goals and exciting the crowd. Poland though they won and dominated the possession, just did not look like a team that was wanting to win the match or work on its game to prepare for Germany. Yes, both Germany and Poland will progress from this group, unless Poland find a way to loss to the Ukraine. See Lewandowski be a treat, but Germany's talent and strength prevail. Germany win 3-1.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - All teams where the total is 200 to 209.5 revenging a loss vs opponent against opponent off an upset win of 10 points or more as a road underdog
32-10 over the last 5 seasons. ( 76.2% | 21.0 units )
3-2 this year. ( 60.0% | 0.8 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play On - Home favorites vs. the money line (CLEVELAND) average defensive team (92-98 PPG) against a horrible defensive team (>=102 PPG) after 42+ games, after scoring 105 points or more
33-4 over the last 5 seasons. ( 89.2% | 25.7 units )
9-3 this year. ( 75.0% | 3.1 units )

NBA | GOLDEN STATE at CLEVELAND
Play Under - Road teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 very good shooting team - shooting >=48% on the season
197-118 since 1997. ( 62.5% | 67.2 units )
14-9 this year. ( 60.9% | 4.1 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA | NEW YORK at CONNECTICUT
Play Under - Home teams where the total is greater than or equal to 140 after going over the total by 30 or more points total in their last five games against opponent after going over the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games
59-26 since 1997. ( 69.4% | 30.4 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at CONNECTICUT
Play On - Road favorites vs. the money line (NEW YORK) explosive offensive team - scoring 77+ points/game on the season, in May, June, or July games
176-59 since 1997. ( 74.9% | 0.0 units )
13-3 this year. ( 81.3% | 0.0 units )

WNBA | NEW YORK at CONNECTICUT
Play Against - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (CONNECTICUT) terrible team - outscored by their opponents by 6+ points/game against opponent after scoring 45 points or more in the first half last game
86-44 since 1997. ( 66.2% | 37.6 units )
5-1 this year. ( 83.3% | 3.9 units )

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB | DETROIT at KANSAS CITY
Play Against - All favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (DETROIT) with an on base percentage of .360 or better over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts
30-19 over the last 5 seasons. ( 61.2% | 25.0 units )
4-6 this year. ( 40.0% | -1.3 units )


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB | TEXAS at OAKLAND
TEXAS is 63-52 (+33.4 Units) against the money line in Road games in road games over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: TEXAS (4.3) , OPPONENT (4.2)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Essler

3* kc ml

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo streaking no more

The Lovable Losers from Chicago failed to hold on to leads in the ninth and 12th innings Wednesday against the Nationals, which ended Hondo’s winning streak at seven and reduced his earnings to 761 turleys.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch expects the Yankees to push him into four figures — 20 units on CC. Also, 10 units on Dustin Johnson, at 12-1, to break his major maiden this weekend at Oakmont.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Mighty Quinn

Mighty was waiting on the Indians on Wednesday and likes the Warriors on Thursday.

The deficit is 159 sirignanos.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

Blue Ribbon Thursday:

Warriors + 2 1/2

Yankees w/ Sabathia -130

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve's Golf Picks (US OPEN)

Brooks Koepka 40/1 - Brooks posted another runner up yesterday and now will enter his 4th career US Open on the heels of back to back 2nd’s. The FSU Product is extremely long off the tee (11th on Tour) and that helps him hit plenty of Greens in Regulation (67.87%). Not only is Brooks long but he is known as a guy with a good short game (39th in Sand Save % and 37th in Strokes Gained through Putting). People may think that the US Open will be too big of a jump for a guy like Koepka but they are completely wrong. He has now placed in the Top 18 in each of his two US Open’s, and Top 33 in his last 6 majors. He has played very well on challenging courses throughout his career, and should really enjoy this week.

Justin Rose 24/1 - Rosey returns from a minor back injury this week. He said he took extra time because he wanted to be 100% for the US Open. We had Justin three years ago when he claimed the US Open (Merion), and his game fits this event perfectly. Justin is long enough off the tee (19th on Tour) which helps him hit the 5th most Greens in Regulation. Rosey is the 3rd best Sand player on the PGA Tour and has proven his ability to putt well on hard greens throughout his career (has finished in the Top 33 in 15 of his last 17 majors, including 9 Top 14’s). Rose has finished inside the Top 27 in each of his last 4 US Opens (includes his win), and finished T10 the last time the event was held at Oakmont in 2007.

Hideki Matsuyama 32/1 - With Hideki I do not need to go into much detail about why we are selecting him. He is one of the worlds most accurate players (6th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green) and has finished inside the Top 18 in 4 of his last 5 majors. He has finished inside the Top 11 in 4 of his last 5 stroke play tournaments. He is ready for his first major win.

Matt Kuchar 40/1 - Speaking of ready for his first major win, Matt Kuchar is far too talented to not have won a major (speaks volumes to how difficult it is). He has finished inside the Top 28 in each of his last 6 US Open starts and that is mainly thanks to his very accurate game (and solid putting). He is also one of the most mental sound players on Tour, which I feel will really bode well for him at Oakmont. Possibly the biggest thing Kuchar has going for him is that he enters playing incredible golf. The Georgia Tech Alum has finished inside the Top 6 in each of his last 4 tournaments.

Webb Simpson 125/1 - Many people forget that Webb in a United States Open Champion (2012) (not sure how anyone could forget that trophy ceremony but they do). His worst finish in his 5 US Open starts is T46 and this has been by far his best major event. Simpson has found his game in recent weeks placing inside the Top 11 in each of his last two tournaments (A 3rd at the Dean/Deluca in there). Simpson ranks 18th in Strokes Gained Approach-the-Green, 22nd in Strokes Gained Around-the-Green, and 20th in Strokes Gained Tee-to-Green. Simpson is the perfect example of why I dont want to focus too much on Putting Stats this week because he has shown over the years that he loves difficult courses and their greens, yet his stats this year are terrible with the flat stick. He is a grinder though and that is what we want this week. I hope we get to hear the guy making bird calls in Webb Simpson;s second US Open trophy ceremony.

Lee Westwood 95/1 - Westwood is the guy who can't seem to win a major. We are taking him this week though! He enters playing great and I really like his game for this course. Westy has Top 15’s in each of his last 4 starts and has really been hitting his irons great. He is known as one of the best iron players in the world and I feel that is exactly what will vault him into contention this week. He is long enough that he can throttle down on some holes this week, another thing that will help. Westy has finished in the Top 23 in 6 of his last 8 US Opens. His short game has been his question mark but I love the way he is playing and I really think his iron game is going to carry him.

Head to Head

2.5 Units on Matt Kuchar (-125) over Bubba Watson
2.5 Units on Webb Simpson (-115) over Shane Lowry

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Fezzik | NBA Sides Thu, 06/16/16 - 9:00 PM
double-dime bet 511 GSW 2.5 (-110) Pinnacle vs 512 CLE
Analysis: WHAT IN THE WORLD IS GOING ON HERE?? Draymond Green is worth 3 points to the line. Golden state was in a bad spot game 5, off a blowout win, without green, and they were laying 6 points. NOW, they get Green back (who is worth AT LEAST 3 points!) they are in a GREAT spot off a blowout win, and in fact are in a VERY similar spot to game 4 where they dominated the Cavs in the 2nd half. WE FIRE on THIS RECORD SETTING 73 win team, to close this series out in 6, amazingly GETTING 2.5 points!

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Soccer Crusher Extra Bonus Picks:

England + Wales OVER 2 (UEFA)

Ukraine + Northern Ireland UNDER 2.5 (UEFA)

Germany + Poland UNDER 3 (UEFA)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Basketball Crusher
Cleveland Cavaliers -135 over Golden State Warriors
(System Record: 102-7, lost last game)
Overall Record: 102-112-5

Rest of the Plays
none

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Baseball Crusher
Baltimore Orioles +1.5 over Boston Red Sox
(System Record: 42-1, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 42-29

Rest of the Plays
Texas Rangers -115 over Oakland A's
Cincinnati Reds -112 over Atlanta Braves
Minnesota Twins + New York Yankees OVER 8.5