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Re: 12-19-08
M@linsky
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4* Bobcats +4
M@linsky
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4* Bobcats +4
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Re: 12-19-08
indiancowboy
NBA (POD): Detroit/Utah Over 192 (Friday @ 8pm Est).
Once again, we stick to our 1 NBA POD and 1 CBB POD per day.
All Bowl Game Selections out until December 27th. All NFL Selections out as well. Let's Roll.
4-1 NFL Sunday. 6-3 Overall Sunday.
Blazers was a win for most clients Yesterday on the 5*. It was counted as a push as come clients got it at -5 which was the overnight line but most got it at -4 and -4.5. Morehead State was on me and we will get it back over the weekend as we have consistently done.
Winning back to back Football Weeks:
I went ahead and counted the Blazers 5* GOW as a Push. I got the line overnight at -5 but in the morning and throughout the day it was at -4.5 and even -4 prior to a few hours before game time. Thus, most clients got it as a win but I will go ahead and count it as a push as my concern is for anyone who did get it at -5. I understand if someone did get it overnight as I want to make sure if we win, everyone wins. As per this game, we will continue to stick to our philosophy of doing 1 POD per day and seeing how that works. Look, the Jazz clearly showed they can put up some points without Boozer by making a huge comeback against a very good defensive team in the Nets in their last game. The way I have broken down the math in this game is the fact that I think the Jazz could very well top 100 in this game. Remember, in the first half against the Nets they scored 31 points. In fact, this was due to a 7 point first quarter. Then, in the second half, against a Nets team known for sound defense, this team put up 72 points and gave up 53 points as they got their offense in sync without Boozer. Heck, this team put up 7 points in the first quarter and still managed to score over a 100 points in the game. Remember, without Boozer other players on the perimeter need to step up including AK, Okur and Korver. I look for a similar game today as these two teams went over the last 5 times they have met. In fact, last year, in Detroit, the total for both those games were 190 and 192.5 and they totaled 196 and 199. I look for plenty of free throws here and for Utah to be an active dog that could very well win this game outright. But, more imporatantly, I look for a game that likely totals in the low 200's today as the Pistons are the same team that gave up 110 points to the Pacers at home. The over is 4-0 when the Jazz are road dogs and the over is 6-0 when the Pistons play teams with a winning record.
College Ball (POD): Richmond Spiders +8 (Friday @ 7pm est). Look, I understand that this takes a leap of faith. The Richmond Spiders might not strike the greatest fears in the hearts of many teams, but Wake is in a very tough spot today. Remember the fact that Wake Forest has yet to play a true road game this year. Yup, that's right, Wake has not played a true road game this year and this is the first time this team is going into a hostile crowd to get the job done over a Richmond Spider team that will be absolutely be fired up for this game. Don't forget that this team is nationally televised on Friday Night on ESPN. Richmond has been waiting for this game for quite some time and that place will be rocking tonight. I swear to you this spread is just begging for a dog cover and a potential outright win. Wake once again has not played a true road game all year and that itself makes for five more turnovers than what they would normally have. Yes, they won big ovr Indiana and Baylor. But, that was on home and neutral floor. Heck, even on a semi-away game in Anaheim this team beat Cal Fullerton by just 6 points and Cal Fullerton is a top 175 team. Richmond on the other hand is a top 150 team. Richmond just faced a VCU team ranked in the top 75 and lost to them by 1 point and they yet to lose back to back games all year. This team lost by just 5 to Syracuse on the road 71-75 earlier this year and I think this is a game they could be very competitive in. This Richmond team is led by Coach Chris Mooney who finished 16-15 last year in a drastic improvement and is led by a solid backcourt from Anderson and Gonzalvez. In fact, if Dan Geriot doesn't go out with a new injury, this team could have very well competed for a top 3 spot in the A-10. Nevertheless, what we have going for us is a team at home, on national television, as an underdog, on espn, coming off a loss, playing a Wake team that faces its first true road contest, us having Richmond going down by 4 points on the spreadsheet and power rankings and fading the public. The Spiders are 13-3-1 ATS following a straight up loss while the DDeacon are 0-4 ATS on the road of late.Comment
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Re: 12-19-08
DOC
3-Unit Play #515 Take Charlotte Over Memphis (8 p.m. EST, Friday) The Grizzlies have been playing better, but we think the Bobcats are the stronger team overall and we think they have a great chance for the straight-up win tonight. They are back at full strength with Gerald Wallace back in the lineup tonight and Raja Bell and Boris Diaw have had time to get acclimated to their new surroundings. The Griz are 2-6 in their last eight games as a favorite and they do not do well in this role. On the other hand, the Bobcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games so they play very well in the underdog role. Charlotte has played a lot better teams than this very close and we think they challenge for the win tonightComment
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Re: 12-19-08
John Ryan
New Orleans at Louisiana Monroe
Prediction: New Orleans
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on New Orleans (CBB) AiS shows a 79% probability that NO will win this game. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 41-14 for 75% since 2002. Play against a home team off a road loss by 10 points or more facing an opponent off a road win scoring 85 or more points. Here is a second system that has gone 48-18 ATS for 73% since 2002. Play on all teams where the line is +3 to -3 off a road win and with just one or fewer starters returning from last season. Louisiana Monroe is just 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons. New Orleans has shot over 50% in their last 2 games and have had just 1 game shooting under 35%. LM has shot under 35% in 5 games and has not shot better than 50% all season. The highest they have shot is 43.5 against Steven F. Austin and they only defeated them by 2 points. In their last game they shot a horrid 27.1% and allowed 53% shooting to LA-Lafayette. Take New Orleans.Comment
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