10-6-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Las Vegas Pipeline
10/5/2016

CFB
20* W. KENT. / LOUISIANA TECH OVER

Over is 4-0 in Bulldogs last 4 games following a ATS loss.
Over is 12-1 in Bulldogs last 13 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 4-1 in Bulldogs last 5 home games.
Over is 5-1 in Hilltoppers last 6 games after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers last 5 games in October.
Over is 4-1 in Hilltoppers last 5 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rob Veno

CFB
15* Blue Chip: Western Kentucky Over 67.5 -110

[Can'tPickAWinner]

DOUBLE DRAGON SPORTS NFL WEEK #5 - Thursday
5-UNIT XTRA-STRONG
CARDS/49'ERS UNDER 42 (TNF)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Carson Palmer has been ruled out with a concussion.

Drew Stanton will start against the 49ers.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Game 1 - Red Sox at Indians

American League Divisional Series – Game 1
Boston (93-69, 46-35 Away) at Cleveland (94-67, 53-28 Home)

Game 1 Odds: Red Sox -140, Indians +130, Total 8 ½
Series Odds: Red Sox -170, Indians +150

Exact Series Odds –
Red Sox 4 Games - Win 5/2
Red Sox 5 Games - Win 5/2
Red Sox 3 Games - Win 4/1
Indians 4 Games - Win 5/1
Indians 5 Games - Win 5/1
Indians 3 Games - Win 9/1

2016 Head-to-Head Meetings (Boston 4-2, Under 3-2-1)

Fenway Park (Boston)
May 22 - Indians 2 Red Sox 5 (Under 8.5)
May 21 - Indians 1 Red Sox 9 (Push 10)
May 20 - Indians 4 Red Sox 2 (Under 8.5)

Progressive Field (Cleveland)
Aug. 15 - Red Sox 3 Indians 2 (Under 9) - Makeup Game
Apr. 6 - Red Sox 6 Indians 7 (Over 7.5)
Apr. 5 - Red Sox 6 Indians 2 (Over 6)

Starting Pitchers

Boston - Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA)
Overall Team Record: 25-8
Overall (O/U) Record: 18-14-1
Road Record: 9-3 (3.31 ERA)
Road Team Record: 10-7
Road O/U Record: 11-6

Record vs. Cleveland: Porcello has gone 10-4 in 22 career starts versus the Indians, which includes a 5-2 win on May 22 this season. Over the last four seasons, Porcello is 5-1 versus Cleveland in seven appearances and has only surrendered one home run over this span.

Cleveland – Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA)
Overall Team Record: 16-12
Overall (O/U) Record: 10-14-4
Home Record: 6-4 (4.72 ERA)
Home Team Record: 11-5
Home O/U Record: 8-7-1

Record vs. Boston: Bauer has faced Boston twice in his career as a starter and he’s been lit up for 16 hits and 11 earned runs in 7 and 2/3 innings. The Red Sox won both games 9-1, which took place at Fenway Park.

Divisional Records
Boston: 15-18 versus AL Central (9-7 on road)
Cleveland: 14-18 versus AL East (8-8 at home)

Umpire – Brian Knight

-- The home team has gone 20-10 in Knight’s 30 appearances behind home plate
-- The ‘over’ has gone 19-10-1 with Knight behind home plate

Skinny –

Playoff baseball returns to Cleveland as the American League Central-champion Indians host the AL East-champion Red Sox in Game 1 of the ALDS.

The Indians (94-67) and the Red Sox (93-69) are both back in the postseason for the first time since 2013. The Tribe lost the Wild Card Game to the Rays that season, while the Red Sox won their third World Series in nine years.

RHP Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.15 ERA, 1.01 WHIP), who led the AL in wins and has an excellent chance of taking home the Cy Young Award, will start for Boston. He’ll be opposed by RHP Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.26 ERA, 1.31 WHIP).

The Red Sox (878) and the Indians (777) were first and second in the AL in runs, respectively, during the regular season. Boston took the season series 4-2 and went 2-1 against Terry Francona’s club at Progressive Field.

The Red Sox played great on the road this season, going 46-35, but the Indians were incredibly difficult to beat at home. Cleveland went 53-28 at their park.

Bauer will have his work cut out for him against an offense that was absolutely brilliant in 2016. RF Mookie Betts (.318, 31 HR, 113 RBI) and 2B Dustin Pedroia (.318, 15 HR, 74 RBI) tied for second in the league in hitting, and DH David Ortiz (.315, 38 HR, 127 RBI), Betts and 1B Hanley Ramirez (.286, 30 HR, 111 RBI, .361 OBP) finished first, fourth and fifth in RBIs, respectively.

Ortiz is one of the most clutch postseason players in baseball history. In 82 postseason games, he’s hit .295 with 17 homers, 21 doubles, 60 RBIs and a .409 on-base percentage. In his final October before retirement, you can expect him to be as determined and locked in as ever.

No one on Boston’s roster has more than six career at-bats against Bauer, but Betts (3-for-5 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI) and Ortiz (4-for-5 with 1 HR, 2 2B, 3 RBI) have owned him in limited plate appearances.

In two career starts against the Red Sox, Bauer is 0-2 with an astronomical 12.14 ERA. He faced them once this season, in May, and surrendered four earned runs in five innings.

3B Jose Ramirez (.312, 11 HR, 76 RBI, 22 SB) and SS Francisco Lindor (.301, 15 HR, 78 RBI, 19 SB) had very solid seasons, and DH Carlos Santana (.259, 34 HR, 87 RBI) and 1B Mike Napoli (.239, 34 HR, 101 RBI) supplied the power.

The Indians have seen a ton of Porcello, who pitched in the AL Central with the Indians from 2009-2014. 2B Jason Kipnis (.275, 23 HR, 82 RBI) has hit him well, going 10-for-31 with a homer and eight RBIs, and Santana (12-for-41 with 3 HR, 2 2B, 4 RBI) and Napoli (6-for-18 with 2 2B, 1 3B) have also seen the ball well against him.

Porcello faced the Indians once this season, back in May, and surrendered two runs in 5 2/3 innings to earn the win. In 22 career starts against Cleveland, Porcello is 10-4 with a 3.35 ERA.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*BOSTON*at*CLEVELAND
Play On - Home underdogs with a money line of +100 or higher (CLEVELAND) with a starting pitcher whose strikes out 5 or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season
401-343*since 1997.**(*53.9%*|*122.6 units*)
53-63*this year.**(*45.7%*|*-1.5 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*TORONTO*at*TEXAS
TEXAS is 27-9 (+17.3 Units) against the money line with an on base percentage of .310 or worse over their last 20 games*this season.
The average score was: TEXAS (5.4) , OPPONENT (4.0)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Brandon Shively

Temple vs Memphis (Thursday, 8:00 PM EST)

1* Free Play Under the Total

I like this game to stay under the total. Any time you can get a Temple total set this high, the under is definitely worth a second look. Upon looking closer, I like what I see. Temple has held Memphis to 12, 16, and 21 points the L3 meetings. Last year, this was a 14-12 (26 points) game going into the 4th quarter before finishing with 43 total points. This year, Memphis has a new QB which is a downgrade from Paxton Lynch who was a 1st rd draft pick in the NFL. Don’t let the 77 points they scored against Bowling Green fool you. Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in college football this season. They put up 43 against Kansas, but the Kansas defense is bad and the yardage was actually close (+80 net yards). Just five days after battling with a more physical SEC team in Ole Miss, I don’t think the Tigers offense will be as crisp as one might expect.

Temple is a defensive minded team that prefers to play at a slow pace. This total tonight marks the highest total under head coach Rhule when Temple has been a road underdog (14 games). 62 points is the most points that have ever been scored in these 14 games. Temple doesn’t have much talent at receiver and QB Walker has only a 55% completion percentage this year with 6 INT already to only 7 TD.

On defense, Temple is holding teams to a 29% conversion rate on 3rd downs. They have allowed a score only 66% of the time in the red zone. On offense, the Owls only converted 23% of 3rd downs at Penn State and are only converting 36% on the season. That’s against some bad defensive teams like Charlotte and SMU.

For Memphis, they are holding teams to a 24% conversion rate on 3rd downs (Held Ole Miss to 3-for-11 last week). On offense, the Tigers are converting 38% of the time on 3rd downs which is not anything special and makes the play on the under more attractive. Also, the Tigers defense has only allowed 5 TD’s in 11 red zone drives. I think we see Temple make some long drives that kill the clock and settle for a few field goals and we should see the same thing with the Memphis offense. Look for a final score in the 30-20 range. (1* Under the Total)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Hondo

Hondo Sawx it to ’em

Familia pulled yet another October flop on Wednesday night, which sent the Mets home and caused Hondo’s earnings to shrink to 3,793 pagliaronis.

Thursday night: Mr. Aitch will sample the Porcello at Progressive Field in Cleveland — 20 units on the Bosawx to make Bauer cower.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

NFL

#304

2 Stars

8:30 PM ET

Arizona @ San Francisco

Play Under 42.5

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

#305

3 Stars

8:00 PM ET

Temple @ Memphis

Play Over 59

(3 Stars up to 62)

#307

1 Star

8:00 PM ET

WKU @ LA Tech

Play Over 67

MLB

#936

2 Stars

8:05 PM ET

Boston @ Cleveland

Play Under 8.5 (-110)

Free Pick

MLB

#938

1 Star

4:35 PM ET

Toronto @ Texas

Play Under 9 (-120)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

ASI

MLB PLAYOFFS
JEFF (0-1 -1.01)
Boston Redsox / Cleveland Indians UNDER 8.5 -110 (8PM)
DAVID (1-0 +1.00)
Boston Redsox -145 Cleveland Indians (8PM)

NFL (REGULAR SEASON)
DAVID (11-5 +6.50)
Arizona/ San Francisco UNDER 42 (825pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Power play of the day for thursday 10/6/16
mlb: Boston red sox -140 action

[Can'tPickAWinner]

The Winners Circle

THURSDAY

MLB BASEBALL

100* Play Cleveland +130 over Boston
100* Play Toronto +130 over Texas

=======================================

NCAA FOOTBALL

100* Play Temple +10 over Memphis
100* Play Louisiana Tech +3 over Western Kentucky

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WINNING ANGLE
NFL FOOTBALL

Play San Francisco +3.5 over Arizona (Contest Play)
8:30 PM EST

San Francisco has won 71 of the last 103 home games when the total posted is between 42.5 and 49 points and they have won 97 of the last 161 games vs. division opponents. San Francisco has won 95 of the last 180 games when playing in the 1st half of the season and they are only allowing an average of 12 points on defense in home games this season.

================================================== ======

NCAA FOOTBALL

Play Temple +10 over Memphis
8:00 PM EST

Memphis has lost 30 of the last 46 games against the spread when playing as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points and they have lost 91 of the last 167 games against the spread vs. conference opponents. Memphis has lost 72 of the last 132 home games against the spread and they have lost 63 of the last 107 games against the spread coming off a game where they forced one or less turnovers.


Play Louisiana Tech +2.5 over Western Kentucky
8:00 PM EST

Louisiana Tech has covered the spread in 38 of the last 67 games after having lost two of the last three games and they have covered the spread in 70 of the last 132 games vs. conference opponents. Louisiana Tech has covered the spread in 45 of the last 82 home games against the spread and they are averaging 36 points a game on offense this season.

================================================== ===

MLB BASEBALL

Play Cleveland +135 over Boston
Play Toronto +130 over Texas

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Best Sports Capper

POD: Arizona Cardinals -3 (NFL)