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Cincinnati -1 Dallas
Tennessee +3 1/2 Miami
San Diego +3 1/2 Oakland
LA Rams -2 1/2 Buffalo
NY Giants +7 Green Bay
LA Rams---Buffalo UNDER 39 1/2
Carolina -7 Tampa Bay
3-Unit Play. #456. Take Cleveland Browns +10.5 over New England Patriots (Sunday @ 1pm est)
Brady is Back! But, he faces a desperate Cleveland team who will not win this game, but who will have a strong effort as they face the premiere NFL squad here in the Patriots. This is one of the best public fades on the board and note the Browns have been much better than people have given them credit as given all their injuries they have been in their games this year including Miami and Washington. We like Cleveland to step up here and surprise the Pats a bit here and give Brady a rude awakening in his first game back as we have the Pats winning by a touchdown on the road. The Browns are not going to the playoffs but they certainly will be looking forward to and will be up for this game.
3-Unit Play. #463. Take Chicago Bears +4.5 over Indianapolis Colts (Sunday @ 1pm est)
The Bears looked a lot better last week beating a Lions team and the oddsmakers also that they were primed for a big home win. This is why they made them into just a 3 point home underdog to the Lions. Now, the Bears are just 4.5 point underdogs on the road to the Colts. Look the Bears Coaching Staff is very well aware that they are on the hot seat and if this team does not change for the better fast, then the organization will be cleaning house. And, winning back to back games will go a long way. The Colts are dismal. We have a future on them to go under the posted total in their win total and that is exactly what is happening. We like the Bears here to continue to get better and come together as a team and this is a high quality public fade this weekend as well and also one of our NFL Hilton Picks.
3-Unit Play. #466. Take Denver Broncos -5.5 over Atlanta Falcons (Sunday @ 4:05pm est)
The Broncos are 4-0 ATS and they likely move to 5-0 ATS here. We are still not sold on the Falcons who sure beat a Cam Newton-less Panther team, beat a questionable Saints team at best and beat a young Oakland team as they were hoping to avoid an 0-2 start which was a must win. But this is a let down spot here for Matt Ryan and Julio Jones and the Broncos defense will be up for the challenge. This is the kind of stuff the Broncos love to get up for and their defense will absolutely relish the challenge of Julio. We like Atlanta's offense to relatively lackluster on the road and Denver to ride their strong defense and quality game planning against the Falcons and get it done here. This is the best defense the Falcons offense will have faced all year and there is a reason why Denver is still undefeated. We like Denver to do well this weekend.
7-Unit Play. #467. Take Buffalo Bills vs. St. LA Rams Over 39.5 (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
Whereas everyone believes this game will go Under, we like this game to go Over the posted total. The Bills only scored 16 points in their last game and their defense shutout the Patriots. But, this team will still field questions constantly about the firing of their offensive coordinator despite the fact they are 2-0 without their offensive coordinator who took the brunt for what was a slow start. We like this offense to bounce-back here and put up a decent number of points as they put up 33 points against the Cardinals and 31 against the Jets. And, this is a very fickle LA defense which gave up just 13 points to Arizona on the road last week but prior to that had given up 32 to Tampa Bay on the road and 28 to San Francisco in the opening week. We like the Over here as we think both offenses will surprise and we like the Bills defense to have a let down after pitching a shutout last week as well. Look for this contest to likely go over the posted total as this is a high quality public fade to boot as well and consequently with both offenses wanting to step up here after a poor performance last week and both defenses on let downs, we like the Over this weekend.
3-Unit Play. #468. Take Los Angeles Rams -2.5 over Buffalo (Sunday @ 4:25pm est)
We don't normally have 2 selections on the same game but we like the Rams here. At the end of the day, we believe the Bills defense will have a bigger let down than the Rams defense as the Bills defense is still very undisciplined. We like St. Louis to contineu to come together as a team as their wins are quite impressive including beating the Cardinals, Seahawks and Bucs on the road and to keep rolling here.
4 Unit Play Take #461 Philadelphia -3 over Detroit (1:00pm est)
3 Unit Play Take #456 Cleveland +10.5 over New England (1:00pm est)
3 Unit Play Take #468 Los Angeles -2.5 over Buffalo (4:25pm est)
Marc Lawrence perfect System club
NFL 10/9/2016
BACK ON TRACK
PLAY ON any 1-3 NFL favorite or dog of less than 10 points in Game Five who is off three losses if they won 7 or less games last season and are facing an opponent off a win.
ATS W-L Record Since 1982: 13-0-1
Play On: Detroit Lions
Rationale: Game Five in the NFL season is pivotal for 1-3 teams, especially
those mired in a 3-game losing streak. If they suffered a losing season last year,
they are incentivized to revert back to their winning effort in Game One as
opposed to continuing their losing ways when they are facing a satisfied opponent.
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