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EXPERT: Ted Sevransky
TITLE: Saturday's Bowl Bash
EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated.
REASON FOR PICK: Double digit favorites have been an absolute disaster for bettors to support in early bowl games. The only reason that these teams are favored by this type of a margin to begin with is because of their pre-season expectations; expectations that they clearly did not live up to. South Florida is a classic example of one such team. The Bulls entered the season as a dark horse national title contender. At a minimum, Jim Leavitt’s team was expected to compete for the Big East crown. Instead, they disappointed their supporters all year long, finishing with a 2-5 mark in conference play. Their signature victory for the season came back in September, a three point, come-from-behind win against a Kansas squad that didn’t live up to expectations either. The Bulls won only twice all year by double digit margins – beating 3-9 Syracuse at home, and dominating NC State in a game where the Wolfpack were without their starting quarterback.
Junior quarterback Matt Grothe has not really improved since his freshman year, with a lower QB rating as both a sophomore and a junior as he had in his first year as the starter. Grothe is prone to both interceptions and fumbles – turnovers were a problem for the Bulls this year. No running back on the team gained even 400 yards – Grothe was the leading rusher as well. None of Grothe’s receivers developed into a ‘go-to’ pass catcher, with Jessie Hester’s 557 receiving yards and Taurus Johnson’s five receiving touchdowns leading the team in both categories. The Bulls ranked in the middle of the NCAA pack in both rushing and passing offense. This is not a team that consistently puts up points in bunches, and it’s very difficult to win bowl games by double digit margins without an offense that is capable of exploding.
The location and situation surrounding this bowl game does not favor South Florida one iota. They closed the season on a 1-4 SU run, watching their chances at a bigger and better bowl game slip away, week by week. Normally, a home state game is a positive factor. In this game, the prospect of sleeping in their own beds during bowl season is not a good one, particularly for a game that nobody, from the coaching staff on down, seems to be particularly excited about. Expect a lethargic effort from the ‘home’ team here.
Memphis is no juggernaut, but they are certainly capable of competing, which is all we can ask for out of our double digit underdogs. The Tigers have been running the football effectively, averaging nearly than 300 yards per game on the ground over their final four contests. QB Arkelon Hall is fully healthy after missing a few games in early November. Five different receivers caught at least 28 passes and two touchdowns. While the Tigers defense is not a particularly stout unit, their level of enthusiasm for this bowl game in comparison to South Florida’s lack of excitement makes this underdog worthy of support. 3* Take Memphis.
TITLE: Saturday's Bowl Bash
EVALUATION: Play Not Evaluated.
REASON FOR PICK: Double digit favorites have been an absolute disaster for bettors to support in early bowl games. The only reason that these teams are favored by this type of a margin to begin with is because of their pre-season expectations; expectations that they clearly did not live up to. South Florida is a classic example of one such team. The Bulls entered the season as a dark horse national title contender. At a minimum, Jim Leavitt’s team was expected to compete for the Big East crown. Instead, they disappointed their supporters all year long, finishing with a 2-5 mark in conference play. Their signature victory for the season came back in September, a three point, come-from-behind win against a Kansas squad that didn’t live up to expectations either. The Bulls won only twice all year by double digit margins – beating 3-9 Syracuse at home, and dominating NC State in a game where the Wolfpack were without their starting quarterback.
Junior quarterback Matt Grothe has not really improved since his freshman year, with a lower QB rating as both a sophomore and a junior as he had in his first year as the starter. Grothe is prone to both interceptions and fumbles – turnovers were a problem for the Bulls this year. No running back on the team gained even 400 yards – Grothe was the leading rusher as well. None of Grothe’s receivers developed into a ‘go-to’ pass catcher, with Jessie Hester’s 557 receiving yards and Taurus Johnson’s five receiving touchdowns leading the team in both categories. The Bulls ranked in the middle of the NCAA pack in both rushing and passing offense. This is not a team that consistently puts up points in bunches, and it’s very difficult to win bowl games by double digit margins without an offense that is capable of exploding.
The location and situation surrounding this bowl game does not favor South Florida one iota. They closed the season on a 1-4 SU run, watching their chances at a bigger and better bowl game slip away, week by week. Normally, a home state game is a positive factor. In this game, the prospect of sleeping in their own beds during bowl season is not a good one, particularly for a game that nobody, from the coaching staff on down, seems to be particularly excited about. Expect a lethargic effort from the ‘home’ team here.
Memphis is no juggernaut, but they are certainly capable of competing, which is all we can ask for out of our double digit underdogs. The Tigers have been running the football effectively, averaging nearly than 300 yards per game on the ground over their final four contests. QB Arkelon Hall is fully healthy after missing a few games in early November. Five different receivers caught at least 28 passes and two touchdowns. While the Tigers defense is not a particularly stout unit, their level of enthusiasm for this bowl game in comparison to South Florida’s lack of excitement makes this underdog worthy of support. 3* Take Memphis.
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