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Fezzik | NFL Side - Thursday, Oct 13 2016 8:25PM
103 DEN-3.0(-110) Pinnacle vs 104 SDC single-dime bet
Analysis: Denver is 15-0 SU in Division Road Games.
SD is 0-10 SU in Divsision Games.
Clearly Denver puts a great emphasi ®s under Elway to win Division Games. Siemian will play (Sheffler reports this am) and Denver is 5 points better than an average team.
SD is clearly a below average team, with almost no HFA.
Fezzik | NFL Total - Thursday, Oct 13 2016 8:25PM
103 DEN / 104 SDC UNDER 45.0 Pinnacle double-dime bet
Analysis: BOTH these teams have played a schedule full of "OVER" teams.
That gives us solid value to go UNDER here, as many things point to an under.
1. Divn games are slightly lower scoring.
2. Thursday games often are lower scoring
3. Kubiak is out with Migraines, Special Teams coach is calling plays, this ususally mean more conservative play calls, and almost certainly no surprises, fakes, going for it on 4th down.
4. Denver likely throws less with Oline problems, AND Siemian concussed and recovered but you know they wa ®nt to keep him upright.
5. The SB Champs proud D had a rare bad game vs. Atl, they BRING IT here.
6. I made the raw total only 44, and the intangibles all favor UNDER.
At first glance you look and see Scherzer vs Hill and you immediately want to jump on Washington with their ace in a big game. But the reality is Scherzer hasn’t been sharp in his last 2 starts as he gave up 4 runs against the Dodgers in Game 1 and in the start before that gave up 5 runs in 5 innings against Miami. On the other hand Rich Hill has made 21 starts this year and in 18 of them he allowed 3 runs or less. In 11 road starts has a ERA of 2.31 and a WHIP of 0.95 and in 15 night starts Hill has a ERA of 2.09 and a WHIP of 1.00. With numbers that good and getting this kind of price is just too much to pass up. My numbers have the Dodgers moving on 4-3.
In week one the Chargers led 27-10 against Kansas City. In week four, the Chargers led New Orleans 34-21. Both leads were in the fourth quarter and had a 99.9% chance of winning. Their other two losses came against Indianapolis with a 84.7% chance to win and last week against Denver with a 77.9% chance of winning. The odds to lose all four of those games and start the season at 1-4 are 0.0000034. In other words, if you played this same scenario 30,000,000 times, the odds of this happening is one time. So this is not your typical 1-4 team. The Broncos are off their first loss of the season and hit the road with a temporary coach and minor chaos on a short week. Coach Kubiak is having medical issues and the special teams coordinator has taken over. Note that he was picked over former NFL head coach, Wade Phillips. Look for similar plays from San Diego that the Falcons used last week using their running backs as wide receivers. It played havoc on Denver's inside linebackers. Denver's defense wins championships but Denver's offensive line loses regular season games. They gave up six sacks last week. The 3rd pick of the NFL this year, Joey Bosa for San Diego, made is first start last week and had exploded with two sacks and five tackles against the Raiders. He is capable of taking over the game for San Diego and getting to first year Denver QB, Paxton Lynch possibly playing in place of Trevor Siemian with a left shoulder injury. Few realize how close the Chargers are to a 5-0 team as evidenced by 75% public betting. Their value in this line and laying points on the road with an injured starting QB in a divisional game is a recipe for another Denver loss.
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