10-15-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Bob Valentino

4-Touchdown Rout of the Year

100 Dime Winner is the CLEMSON TIGERS over the N.C. State Wolfpack

As of 3 a.m. Eastern today, the line was -Clemson -17.5.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SkyBlue

NC State +18
Virginia +4.5
Oregon State +7.5

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

COLLEGE FOOTBALL

#145
1 Star
12:00 PM ET
Kansas St @ Oklahoma
Take Kansas St +14


#158
3 Stars
3:30 PM ET
UNM @ Air Force
Take Air Force -13.5
(3 Stars up to -16)


#148
2 Stars
3:30 PM ET
Nebraska @ Indiana
Play Under 57


#176
2 Stars
3:30 PM ET
Alabama @ Tennessee
Take Tennessee +14


#206
1 Star
4:00 PM ET
Utah @ Oregon St
Take Oregon St +7.5


#195
3 Stars
8:00 PM ET
Ohio St @ Wisconsin
Play Over 44
(3 Stars up to 46)


#181
2 Stars
8:00 PM ET
Arizona St @ Colorado
Play Over 62


#210
3 Stars
11:59 PM ET
UNLV @ Hawaii
Take Hawaii -7
(3 Stars up to -9.5)


MLB

#906
1 Star
4:05 PM ET
Toronto @ Cleveland
Play Under 8.5 (-110)


#904
2 Stars
8:05 PM ET
LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Take Cubs ML (-185)



Free Pick

College Football
#184
1 Star
3:30 PM ET
Kansas @ Baylor
Take Baylor -34

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NHL*|*NY RANGERS*at*ST LOUIS
Play Against - A underdog against the money line (NY RANGERS) off a win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season
55-17*over the last 5 seasons.**(*76.4%*|*32.2 units*)

NHL*|*NY RANGERS*at*ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road underdogs against the money line (NY RANGERS) off a win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season
43-11*over the last 5 seasons.**(*79.6%*|*27.8 units*)

NHL*|*NY RANGERS*at*ST LOUIS
Play Against - Road underdogs of +100 to +200 against the money line (NY RANGERS) off a win against a division rival, with a winning record on the season playing another winning team in the first half of the season
43-11*over the last 5 seasons.**(*79.6%*|*27.8 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFL*|*MONTREAL*at*CALGARY
Play Against - Any team vs the the 1rst half line (CALGARY) after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins, with a winning record on the season playing a losing team
41-12*since 1997.**(*77.4%*|*27.8 units*)
1-3*this year.**(*25.0%*|*-2.3 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

CFB*|*BOWLING GREEN*at*TOLEDO
Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (TOLEDO) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)

CFB*|*TEXAS ST*at*LA MONROE
Play Against - A road team vs. the money line (TEXAS ST) average offensive team (330 to 390 YPG) against a team with a terrible defense (>=440 YPG), after allowing 6.75 or more yards/play in their previous game
46-25*since 1997.**(*64.8%*|*0.0 units*)
2-1*this year.**(*66.7%*|*0.0 units*)

CFB*|*UCLA*at*WASHINGTON ST
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (UCLA) after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread against opponent after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread
41-15*over the last 5 seasons.**(*73.2%*|*24.5 units*)
1-1*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.1 units*)

CFB*|*TULSA*at*HOUSTON
Play On - Home favorites of 21.5 to 31 points (HOUSTON) dominant team - outscoring opponents by 17 or more points/game, after scoring 31 points or more in 5 straight games
46-18*since 1997.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)

CFB*|*LOUISIANA TECH*at*MASSACHUSETTS
Play Over - All teams where the first half total is 28.5 to 31.5 after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses, in non-conference games
46-18*over the last 10 seasons.**(*71.9%*|*26.2 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Ben burns
3*
Arizona St / Colorado over 62

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Stephen Nover

3* Arizona St +12
2* Kansas St 13.5
2* air force over 57
2* Dallas (NHL) money line

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

MLB*|*LA DODGERS*at*CHICAGO CUBS
Play On - Road underdogs with a money line of +150 or more (LA DODGERS) poor hitting team (AVG <=.250) against a good starting pitcher (ERA <=3.70) -NL, with a cold starting pitcher- ERA >= 7.00 over his last 3 starts
68-83*since 1997.**(*45.0%*|*50.7 units*)
5-15*this year.**(*25.0%*|*-4.7 units*)


StatFox Situational Power Trends

MLB*|*LA DODGERS*at*CHICAGO CUBS
CHICAGO CUBS*are*59-20 (+31.5 Units) against the money line in Home games vs. good fielding teams - averaging <=0.6 errors/game*over the last 2 seasons.
The average score was: CHICAGO CUBS (4.6) , OPPONENT (3.5)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Saturday’s six-pack

— Indians 2, Blue Jays 0– Is Terry Francona changing how bullpens will be used in the future?

— Louisville 24, Duke 14– Blue Devils hung in until the last 3:00.

— Oilers 5, Flames 3– Alberta rivals played twice in three nights, now do not play again until January 14.

— Memphis 24, Tulane 14– Back-door cover for the Green Wave.

— UNLV’s hoop team is practicing in brand-new T-Mobile Arena while their arena is being prepped for the last Presidential debate.

— When LA Kings started playing in the NHL 50 years ago, they played six games in Long Beach Arena before moving to the LA Forum.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob
2* Usc -10

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* UNC +7.5

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Las Vegas Pipeline

CFB
20* BAMA / TENNESSEE OVER

Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in their previous game.
Over is 4-0 in Volunteers last 4 conference games.
Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games after allowing more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games in October.
Over is 4-1 in Volunteers last 5 games on grass.
Over is 4-1-1 in Volunteers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Over is 10-4 in Volunteers last 14 games after allowing more than 40 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-2 in Volunteers last 7 games following a straight up loss.
Over is 15-7-2 in Volunteers last 24 games after accumulating more than 280 yards passing in their previous game.
Over is 33-16-2 in Volunteers last 51 vs. a team with a winning record.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Steve Merril

(3% play) NORTHERN ILLINOIS +2.5 (vs. Central Michigan) - 3:30 pm ET #172

Central Michigan is 4-2 SU on the season, but they could very well be 2-4 instead. The Chippewas won at Oklahoma State on a fluke play which shouldn’t have counted, and they only beat Ball State by 3 points at home last week. Central Michigan has also played four of their six games at home, and their two road games resulted in a loss at Virginia and the aforementioned game at Oklahoma State. The Chippewas’ offense has faced a group of terrible defenses that give up 30.4 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. While it’s true Northern Illinois’ defense has poor seasonal numbers, do note that they’ve played a collection of offenses that average 35.3 points per game on 6.1 yards per play. Central Michigan’s offense actually has a difficult matchup against the Huskies’ defense in this game.

Northern Illinois comes into this game with a poor 1-5 SU record. However, the Huskies are a much better team than that record suggests. Northern Illinois has played four of their six games on the road, and their two home games were against better teams (San Diego State and Western Michigan). The Huskies also lost two games by 6 points or less. Northern Illinois’ offense has played a group of defenses that only allow 24.5 points per game on 5.8 yards per play. The Huskies will now face a Central Michigan defense that is giving up 38 points per game on 6.6 yards per play on the road this season. The Huskies’ offense is taking a major step-down in defensive class in this game. The wrong team is favored, so we’ll back Northern Illinois on Saturday afternoon.

Play NORTHERN ILLINOIS (+) as a 3% play.

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(3% play) ARKANSAS +7.5 (vs. Mississippi) - 7:00 pm ET (time-change) (ESPN) #178

Mississippi is 3-2 SU on the season, and they’ll be playing their first true road game of the year. The Rebels’ two losses have come against Florida State and Alabama, so there’s no shame in losing to those two teams. Mississippi also comes into this game off a bye, but considering they won their last two games by a combined score of 93-42, a week off did not necessarily come at a good time. Mississippi was a 7.5-point home favorite against Arkansas last season, and the Razorbacks won that game after they put-up 605 yards of total offense. Mississippi is now playing at Arkansas, and they are laying 7.5 points once again, but this time it’s on the road. This line doesn’t make much sense, and my power ratings say the Rebels should only be a 6-point favorite in this game. In their lone game away from home on a neutral field against Florida State, the Rebels gave up 45 points on 6.2 yards per play.

Arkansas comes into this game off a 49-30 home loss to Alabama. The Razorbacks deserved better in that game as they put-up 473 yards of total offense on the Crimson Tide while winning the first down battle 25-16. Arkansas also converted 50% (8-for-16) on third downs, but five costly turnovers did them in. Arkansas’ offense has been excellent at home this season where they are averaging 36.2 points per game on 6.5 yards per play. They will face a Mississippi rush defense that is allowing 215 yards per game on 4.9 yards per rush. The Razorbacks’ ability to run the ball at home (189 yards on 4.8 yards per rush per game) gives them a nice matchup edge in this game. We expect a close game throughout, so we’ll take the points with Arkansas on Saturday night.

Play ARKANSAS (+) as a 3% play.

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(3% play) LSU -24.5 (vs. Southern Mississippi) - 7:30 pm ET (time-change) (SECN) #152

Southern Mississippi is 4-2 SU on the season, but they’ve played six terrible teams. The Golden Eagles own wins against Kentucky, FCS Savannah State, UTEP, and Rice; two of those games came on their home field. Last week, Southern Mississippi lost 55-32 at a poor Texas-San Antonio team despite out-gaining them by 557-532 in yardage. Southern Mississippi’s offense is averaging 40.2 points per game on 6.6 yards per play versus defenses that allow 35 points per game on 6.3 yards per play. The Golden Eagles will now face a LSU defense that only gives up 14.8 points per game on 4.8 yards per play. That’s -20.2 points per game less, and -1.5 yards per play less than the defenses that Southern Mississippi has faced this season.

LSU comes into this game with a 3-2 SU record, but their two losses came against good teams in Wisconsin and Auburn. The Tigers won their last home game 42-7 over Missouri, so they come into this game with good momentum. LSU is averaging 33 points per game on 6.7 yards per play at home this season. Southern Mississippi’s defense is giving up 27 points per game on 5.7 yards per play versus offenses that only average 21.6 points per game on 5.2 yards per play. On the road, Southern Mississippi is allowing 32.3 points per game on a whopping 7.9 yards per play. This game is a complete mismatch, so we’ll lay the points with the LSU on Saturday night.

Play LSU (-) as a 3% play.