10-16-16

[Can'tPickAWinner]

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Gold sheet LTS
SUNDAY, OCTOBER 16
NFL
TOP CHOICE 1 1/2 units INDIANAPOLIS +3 over Houston -home 5:30 PM PDT (Game #275)
NEW ENGLAND -9 -home over Cincinnati 10:00 AM PDT (Game #252)
"OVER" 44 points SAN FRANCISCO at BUFFALO 10:00 AM PDT (Game #261-62)
KANSAS CITY -1 1/2 over Oakland -home 1:05 PM PDT (Game #269)
MONDAY, OCTOBER 17NFLNY JETS +7 over Arizona -home 5:30 PM PDT (Game #277)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

WAYNE ROOT
MILL--Dallas +
No Limit--Washington +
Perfect Play--Seattle -
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Inner Circle--Cincinnati +
With a 2-3 record, the Bengals need to shock themselves and put together a great game on the road against New England. Both teams should be tested. Hopefully, New England has made themselves their own worst enemy as they have made the "return" of Tom Brady the biggest home game in years. Try getting a ticket! So the pressure is on them. Winning at Gillette Stadium would be a monumental task and after the loss at Dallas, the Bengals need to respond. Falling to 2-4 would put Cincinnati in dire straits, especially in terms of contending in the AFC North and reaching the postseason for a sixth consecutive season. Do we hear "must win"? Bengals WR Brandon LaFell may be the answer. This former Patriots standout appears to be comfortable in his new Bengals offense. Through five games, LaFell has 21 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns, on pace to have the finest season since 2011 by any Bengals receiver not named A.J. Green. Dalton has the weapons and now has to perform. Cincinnati had two streaks broken last week playing Dallas. First, Cincinnati won 10 straight games when Dalton had a rating of 100 or better, but that streak ended when the Bengals lost at Dallas (38-14) despite Dalton's 104.6 passer rating. Secondly, the Bengals went 17 consecutive games without allowing a 100-yard rusher before the Cowboys' Ezekiel Elliott rushed for 134 yards. These streaks have to be relaunched today and very well could be. It's all about the red zone and the end zone for Dalton. So the Bengals will need Dalton to step up. The sixth-year passer has thrown for more than 300 yards per game this fall but struggled to lead his team to the end zone. He's 10th in yards but 24th in scoring. That's where their work, practice and focus was on this week with some different plays and schemes. Defensively, the Bengals can maintain some control in Brady's use of his tight ends. That's huge as Brady goes to them about 15 times a game. Cincinnati might not win outright in their must win game, but they will be within the point spread the entire game.
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Pinnacle--Miami +
The tale of the tape shows a 4-1 Steelers team and a 1-4 Dolphins team. The Dolphins would love to get into a low scoring affair. The Steelers may not share that same feeling on offense. The offensive line needs to protect quarterback Ben Roethlisberger better as indicated by the nine sacks they have allowed so may continue to throw while hoping for the O-line to protect Ben. The Steelers are notorious for playing down to the competition. The big question today is this: is this a trap game with New England up next or a tune-up game for Pittsburgh's next game. The Steelers may help the cause by running the ball with vanilla type play calling. For Dolphins fans, the one chance Miami has is to connect on a few deep touchdown passes to Kenny Stills and/or DeVante Parker. QB Ryan Tannehill blasted his offensive line publicly and may have gotten their attention. There have been many injuries but most teams including the Steelers have suffered with them. The Steelers have won back to back games and scored 74 points the past two weeks and with the Patriots up next week, should have a more conservative game plan. It's very difficult to maintain peak performance week after week. Look for a huge game from Tannehill with another QB in Adam Gase looking over his shoulder. He does have the talent and weapons to make it happen. Tannehill has thrown for 4,000-plus yards in back-to-back seasons. In terms of those weapons, he has Kenny Stills, DeVante Parker, and Jarvis Landry to throw to if the offensive line can keep him upright. The fish will fight hard and cover the points offered by the road team.

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Arthur Ralph Sports

SUPER PK: Texans -3

Gold Keys:
Falcons + 6 1/2
Pittsburg-7
OVER the Total 44 Bills /49ers

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play Under - Road teams where the total is greater than or equal to 150 very good team - outscoring their opponents by 6+ points/game, after a game where both teams scored 75 points or more
57-25*since 1997.**(*69.5%*|*29.5 units*)
11-7*this year.**(*61.1%*|*3.3 units*)

WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Favorites vs. the money line (LOS ANGELES) after going under the total by 48 or more points total in their last ten games, with a winning record on the season after 15 or more games
162-57*since 1997.**(*74.0%*|*0.0 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*0.0 units*)

WNBA*|*MINNESOTA*at*LOS ANGELES
Play On - Any team vs. the 1rst half line (LOS ANGELES) good 3PT shooting team (>=35%) against an average 3PT defense (30-35%), after 2 straight games - allowing a shooting pct. of 45% or higher
126-70*since 1997.**(*64.3%*|*49.0 units*)
7-7*this year.**(*50.0%*|*-0.7 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NHL*|*BUFFALO*at*EDMONTON
Play Against - Home Favorites against the money line (EDMONTON) after a road game where both teams score 3 or more goals, a top-level team (>=70%) playing a team with a losing record
36-33*since 1997.**(*52.2%*|*35.3 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

StatFox Super Situations

NFL*|*LA RAMS*at*DETROIT
Play On - Road teams (LA RAMS) off 1 or more straight overs, poor offensive team - scoring 17 or less points/game
76-37*over the last 10 seasons.**(*67.3%*|*35.3 units*)
2-0*this year.**(*100.0%*|*2.0 units*)

NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Against - Road underdogs vs. the money line (DALLAS) off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog, in the first half of the season
37-8*since 1997.**(*82.2%*|*0.0 units*)
1-2*this year.**(*33.3%*|*0.0 units*)

NFL*|*PHILADELPHIA*at*WASHINGTON
Play Against - Underdogs vs. the 1rst half line (WASHINGTON) off a upset win as an underdog against opponent off a road loss
70-33*over the last 10 seasons.**(*68.0%*|*33.7 units*)
3-2*this year.**(*60.0%*|*0.8 units*)

NFL*|*CAROLINA*at*NEW ORLEANS
Play Under - Any team against the total versus division opponents, off a division game
137-77*over the last 5 seasons.**(*64.0%*|*52.3 units*)
3-6*this year.**(*33.3%*|*-3.6 units*)

NFL*|*DALLAS*at*GREEN BAY
Play Under - Home teams against the total after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers against opponent after 3 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
59-26*over the last 5 seasons.**(*69.4%*|*30.4 units*)
4-1*this year.**(*80.0%*|*2.9 units*)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

SB Professor Original NFL Picks 10/16

System plays:

Los Angeles +3
Indianapolis +3
Other plays:
Pittsburgh -7


(All plays tracked at released points, assuming -110 line)

3-Game Chase System Follow: 4-0, +0.59 units (next play: C, risk 4.85 to win 4.41 units)
All-Out Chase (Bankroll Buster) Follow: 4-4, +0.59 units (next play: risk 4.85 to win 4.41 units)
Simple Follow: 4-4-1, -0.4 units (always risk 1.1 to win 1 unit)

3-Game Chase System Fade: 4-0, +4 units (next play: A, risk 1.1 to win 1 units)
All-Out Chase (Bankroll Buster) Fade: 4-4, +4 units (next play: risk 1.1 to win 1 units)
Simple Fade: 4-4-1, -0.4 units (always risk 1.1 to win 1 unit)

Additional Plays Overall Record: 2-2, -0.2 units (always risk 1.1 to win 1 unit)
Streaks (does not include pushes): L2; lost 2 of 4

A bets: 2W-3L, Win%: 40.0%
B bets: 2W-1L, Win%: 66.7%
C bets: 0W-0L, Win%: 0.0%

[Can'tPickAWinner]

INTPICKS

NFL

#265
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Cleveland @ Tennessee
Take Cleveland Browns +7.5


#253
2 Stars
1:00 PM ET
Baltimore @ NY Giants
Take Baltimore Ravens +3.5


#268
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Philadelphia @ Washington
Take Washington Redskins +3


#260
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Jacksonville @ Chicago
Play Under 46


#269
2 Stars
4:05 PM ET
KC @ Oakland
Take Kansas City Chiefs -1


#273
1 Star
4:25 PM ET
Dallas @ Green Bay
Take Dallas Cowboys +4.5


#275
1 Star
8:30 PM ET
Indianapolis @ Houston
Take Indianapolis Colts +3



MLB

#908
2 Stars
8:00 PM ET
LA Dodgers @ Chicago Cubs
Take Chicago Cubs +120



Free Pick

NFL
#257
1 Star
1:00 PM ET
Pittsburgh @ Miami

Play Over 48

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dave Cokin:

Giants -3 -120

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan

3* Cowboys

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Rainman (Twitter guy Not John Rainey)

Hammer Play on Chiefs 20u

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Dr Bob

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Chicago Bears

The Jags pass Defense has been formidable this year, giving up only 5.5 NYPP, ranking 11th in the league. Blake Bortles has unfortunately struggled all year, with peripherals of 42.2% success rate and a 5.7 NYPP. Look for Brian Hoyer to regress from his career high 7.6 NYPP and come closer to the 6.2 NYPP he has averaged the other 7 years he has been in the league. The advanced stats model sees value on the Under, so we lean to the UNDER (46). No opinion on the side.

Cleveland Browns @ Tennessee Titans

The Browns and Titans are 2nd and 6th from an adjusted YPR standpoint, both averaging 4.8 YPR. Offensively, the Titans have failed to show explosiveness, gaining only 6.1 NYPP, which is also the same as the Brownies. However, the Titans should find an easier time against a Browns D giving up 7.3 NYPP. While Titans are susceptible to the big plays on defense, giving up 48% of their yardage into long runs and passes. Look for the visiting Browns to keep it close in a game of lower-tier defensive units.The advanced stats model sees value on the road dawg and Over so both the Browns (+7) and the OVER (43.5) are Strong Opinions.

Philadelphia Eagles @ Washington Redskins

The Eagles defense has been phenomenal this year, and while they are not going to continue to hold teams to 12.8 points per game. They are the 3rd best defense on an adjusted defensive success rate allowed. The Washington offense has been just as formidable ranking 3rd in offensive success rate. Where Washington again struggles is on the defensive side of the ball, giving up 5.2 YPR and should actually be giving up more than the 24.4 points allowed this season, if not for the positive fumble differential. The advanced stats model sees the Eagles flying this week, as Eagles (-2.5) is a Strong Opinion and a lean to the OVER (44.5).

[Can'tPickAWinner]

James Jones - (+2.8* Sat. Helped by OT in Wisc. game. Now +9.68* Oct.)

3 Units: (268) Washington Redskins +3
2 Units: (276) Houston Texas -3

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Tony Finn

4% BALTIMORE RAVENS +3

4% TENNESSEE TITANS -6.5

4% SEATTLE SEAHAWKS -6