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Ben Burns | MLB TotalTue, 11/01/16 - 8:05 PM
triple-dime bet
951 CHC / 952 CLE OVER 7 PinnacleAnalysis:I'm playing on Chicago and Cleveland to finish OVER the total. As you know, its been a low-scoring series. Four of the five games have produced six or fewer combined runs. Those results have helped in keeping this O„/U line nice and low. With all due respect to the pitchers, I believe that it'll prove to be too low. The Indians have seen the OVER go 28-18-2 the past few seasons, when playing at home with an O/U line of seven or less. That includes a 5-1 mark this season. Meanwhile, the OVER is 10-4-1 when the Cubs have played a road game with an O/U line of seven or less. Even factoring in the low-scoring playoffs, games here are still averaging 9.5 runs on the season. The Cubs have seen the OVER go 12-3-3 in Arrieta's 18 road starts, the Indians have seen the OVER go 8-6-1 in Tomlin's home starts. While it doesn't always work this way, the batters generally have an advantage when facing the same pitcher twice in a short span. Look for this one to prove higher-scoring than many will be expecting.
I'm playing on MIAMI. Since winning their opener at Orlando, the Heat have lo‚st their first two home games. The first of those was winnable, as it came against Charlotte. They lost by six. The next was against San Antonio, always a tough matchup. The Heat lost by seven. Hungry for that first home win, the Heat step down in class to fact the Kings. The fact that they've also got a significant scheduling advantage figures to make matters easier. While the Heat had last night off, the Kings were busy playing at Atlanta. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, a fairly grueling schedule right out of the gate. In other words, as both teams played their first game on 10/26, the Kings have squeezed an extra game into the same number of days while also flying from the West Coast to the East coast. Look for the Heat, who have yet to leave the state of Florida, to take advantage of the favorable schedule, sending the fans home with a win and cover.
709 SAC / 710 MIA OVER 200.0 WestgateAnalysis: Please remember that we have developed a program for playing both NBA and CBB Totals and about 80% of our handicap with these are contained within this. It takes into account a number of things, many of which are not discovered by those that set the numbers. We do not ever want them to discover the way we set our numbers. This means that our thoughts on these games will be very BRIEF and we will talk mostly about how, and when to play...
Interesting to note that neither of these teams are PACING that well this season but Sac is having better than average Offensive Efficiency and both teams rank near the bottom of the NBA on D Efficiency. Strong Trending for this game and we have to also note that these teams don't play each other often so defensive intensity is not likely tonight. The fact is we use 4 models that help us select High Percentage NBA Totals and they all agree with us here. We have see lot's of scoring when they do play. (6-0 OVER here in Miami and 9-1 O†VER regardless of the Venue) This game opened at 201 and has filtered down a bit. We are going to get it now with nothing driving it down as we can see and more money on the OVER in betting so far. You can play the Full 2% here to 203 although it should trade in the 199 to 201 range (We Think)
710 MIA -3.5 (-101) Pinnacle vs 709 SACAnalysis:I'm playing on MIAMI. Since winning their opener at Orlando, the Heat have lo‚st their first two home games. The first of those was winnable, as it came against Charlotte. They lost by six. The next was against San Antonio, always a tough matchup. The Heat lost by seven. Hungry for that first home win, the Heat step down in class to fact the Kings. The fact that they've also got a significant scheduling advantage figures to make matters easier. While the Heat had last night off, the Kings were busy playing at Atlanta. In addition to playing the second of back-to-back games, they'll be playing their fifth game in the past seven nights, a fairly grueling schedule right out of the gate. In other words, as both teams played their first game on 10/26, the Kings have squeezed an extra game into the same number of days while also flying from the West Coast to the East coast. Look for the Heat, who have yet to leave the state of Florida, to take advantage of the favorable schedule, sending the fans home with a win and cover.
714 NOP -3.0 (-120) Pinnacle vs 713 MILAnalysis: Might be able to get -3 later but I want my plays out as soon as possible. I think the Pelicans have be devalued a bit with Holiday and Evans being out - which is understandable, but too much. Tim Frazier has been playing great, and is averaging 9.3 assists per game in the first three contests. We know that in the middle with Anthony Davis they're going to win most matchups. Antetokounmpom(I'm glad I am not the announcer) will have a tougher time getting his 9+ rebounds per game here. Buddy Hield has YET to make a three point shot (something we counted on when we faded New Orleans last week) but he ought to settle a bit now - I would think. Milwaukee is getting 50 points in the paint per game - but they haven't faced AD yet, but they HAVE faced Charlo†tte, Brooklyn, and the Pistons. Their lone win was by two at home over Brooklyn. I'd expect a major effort from New Orleans, looking for win #1 here before they play at Memphis tomorrow. They were crushed in San Antonio (who isn't) - but their first two home games against Denver and the Nuggets were better than an "L" looks. They melted down late against Denver (thanks for that) and they only lost to Golden State by 8 - and scored 114 (again, without Hield making a three). If and when the Pelicans make some shots - they'll blow someone out, and that someone is Milwaukee tonight.
Dave Essler | NBA SidesTue, 11/01/16 - 7:05 PM
dime bet
706 PHI 5.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 705 ORLAnalysis: If had more stones this would be a bigger play - I really like the 76ers here - but there IS always that possibility that they ge†t hammered. I do not think so - not here.
706 PHI 5.0 (-110) Pinnacle vs 705 ORLAnalysis: If had more stones this would be a bigger play - I really like the 76ers here - but there IS always that possibility that they ge†t hammered. I do not think so - not here.
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