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Re: 12-21-08
Brian Sherwood
DETROIT +7 over New Orleans PINNACLE
The Saints absolutely don’t want to be the only team that loses to the Lions this year but Detroit wants to win a lot more then New Orleans doesn’t want to lose. In fact, members of the 1976 Bucs (the 0-14 ’76 Bucs) have called some of the Lions and told them that if they go 0-16 they will never live it down and that it will stay with them forever. Some of those winless players went on to go as far as saying that they were embarrassed to go out in public. If the Lions lose this game and subsequently lose to the Packers in Green Bay next week, the 2008 Lions will be headed to the Football Hall of Fame and that’s a distinction that they absolutely do not want. The Saints were officially eliminated last week from playoff contention and besides that they’re one of the worst traveling teams in the league. After all that NFL teams go through in the course of a season and then to be eliminated it has to be tough to get up for a game like this one. Should the Saints lose, it’ll be forgotten real soon. Should the Lions lose go winless, it’ll never be forgotten and that alone will have this team playing their hearts out. The Lions want this one more then they want the Super Bowl. Also, Reggie Bush will not go and the Saints defense is a complete mess. Remember, the Lions pushed the Colts to the brink last week in Indy and they’ll absolutely compete here. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
WASHINGTON +5 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
It’s definitely not going to be easy to pull the trigger on the Skins here, as their stock has crumpled to a season low. In fact, of all the teams in the NFL, nobody’s stock has fallen quicker. By contrast, the Eagles stock has dramatically risen over the past month and wagering on the NFL is all about picking the right spot. So, what we have here is an Eagles team that is at its season high point playing against a Skins team that is at its season low point. I’ve said it a million times over and it’s worth repeating that the absolute worst time to bet on a team is when everyone else is on them too and their stock is high. This one is twofold in that everyone is also betting against Washington right now too and that makes this one doubly dangerous. The books were fully aware that they were going to get overloaded with Philly money and they came out with a very appealing line for Eagle backer. Also note that the whole world saw the Eagles crush the Brownies on Monday night and that, too, has added to the appeal of the Eagles. A Skins team that lost to Cincinnati last week and that can’t move five yards on anyone has no appeal whatsoever and this is a classic case of the oddsmakers trapping you into playing the wrong side. I’m urging you to lay off the Eagles this week. Wait til Sunday to bet this one cause we’ll likely get six points and I’ll update it Sunday morning. Play: Washington +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Carolina +3 +1.05 over NY
This is a case of one team getting too much credit while nobody believes in the other team despite the great roll they’re on to go along with a great record. Let’s start with the Panthers. They’ve been playing under the radar the whole season and it might surprise you to know that they’ve won seven of their last eight games. They’ve suddenly become one of the more potent offenses in the game and that’s due to a running game (DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart have combined for 1,980 yards and 23 rushing TDs so far this season) that is as powerful as any out there and then some. Playing a December game in New York fits right into that deadly running attack and you can be damn sure they’ll pound the ball on the ground all day. The Panthers have scored 30 or more in five of those eight games and the defense is beginning to pick it up too. Carolina held the Broncos to 10 lousy points last week in another romp. As for the Giants, well, they’re way out of sorts and Eli Manning has taken giant leaps backwards. Brandon Jacobs is hurting bad and although he may go he ios just not the same either. The Giants have dropped two straight to Philly and Dallas and those were games they wanted desperately yet they fell way short in both. The Giants had a great run indeed and everyone is expecting them to snap out of now. However, it’s not a light-switch we’re talking about that can be turned on at any time, as the Giants have found out the last couple of weeks. The Giants are considered a great team indeed, perhaps the best in the business and I would have agreed with that three weeks ago. However, things change quickly in this league, just ask the Cowboys, Redskins, Falcons, Dolphins, Seahawks and Eagles and right now the Giants are just not that same dominant team, not even close. Play: Carolina +3 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
Brian Sherwood
DETROIT +7 over New Orleans PINNACLE
The Saints absolutely don’t want to be the only team that loses to the Lions this year but Detroit wants to win a lot more then New Orleans doesn’t want to lose. In fact, members of the 1976 Bucs (the 0-14 ’76 Bucs) have called some of the Lions and told them that if they go 0-16 they will never live it down and that it will stay with them forever. Some of those winless players went on to go as far as saying that they were embarrassed to go out in public. If the Lions lose this game and subsequently lose to the Packers in Green Bay next week, the 2008 Lions will be headed to the Football Hall of Fame and that’s a distinction that they absolutely do not want. The Saints were officially eliminated last week from playoff contention and besides that they’re one of the worst traveling teams in the league. After all that NFL teams go through in the course of a season and then to be eliminated it has to be tough to get up for a game like this one. Should the Saints lose, it’ll be forgotten real soon. Should the Lions lose go winless, it’ll never be forgotten and that alone will have this team playing their hearts out. The Lions want this one more then they want the Super Bowl. Also, Reggie Bush will not go and the Saints defense is a complete mess. Remember, the Lions pushed the Colts to the brink last week in Indy and they’ll absolutely compete here. Play: Detroit +7 (Risking 2.08 units to win 2).
WASHINGTON +5 over Philadelphia PINNACLE
It’s definitely not going to be easy to pull the trigger on the Skins here, as their stock has crumpled to a season low. In fact, of all the teams in the NFL, nobody’s stock has fallen quicker. By contrast, the Eagles stock has dramatically risen over the past month and wagering on the NFL is all about picking the right spot. So, what we have here is an Eagles team that is at its season high point playing against a Skins team that is at its season low point. I’ve said it a million times over and it’s worth repeating that the absolute worst time to bet on a team is when everyone else is on them too and their stock is high. This one is twofold in that everyone is also betting against Washington right now too and that makes this one doubly dangerous. The books were fully aware that they were going to get overloaded with Philly money and they came out with a very appealing line for Eagle backer. Also note that the whole world saw the Eagles crush the Brownies on Monday night and that, too, has added to the appeal of the Eagles. A Skins team that lost to Cincinnati last week and that can’t move five yards on anyone has no appeal whatsoever and this is a classic case of the oddsmakers trapping you into playing the wrong side. I’m urging you to lay off the Eagles this week. Wait til Sunday to bet this one cause we’ll likely get six points and I’ll update it Sunday morning. Play: Washington +5 (Risking 2.1 units to win 2).
Carolina +3 +1.05 over NY
This is a case of one team getting too much credit while nobody believes in the other team despite the great roll they’re on to go along with a great record. Let’s start with the Panthers. They’ve been playing under the radar the whole season and it might surprise you to know that they’ve won seven of their last eight games. They’ve suddenly become one of the more potent offenses in the game and that’s due to a running game (DeAngelo Williams and rookie Jonathan Stewart have combined for 1,980 yards and 23 rushing TDs so far this season) that is as powerful as any out there and then some. Playing a December game in New York fits right into that deadly running attack and you can be damn sure they’ll pound the ball on the ground all day. The Panthers have scored 30 or more in five of those eight games and the defense is beginning to pick it up too. Carolina held the Broncos to 10 lousy points last week in another romp. As for the Giants, well, they’re way out of sorts and Eli Manning has taken giant leaps backwards. Brandon Jacobs is hurting bad and although he may go he ios just not the same either. The Giants have dropped two straight to Philly and Dallas and those were games they wanted desperately yet they fell way short in both. The Giants had a great run indeed and everyone is expecting them to snap out of now. However, it’s not a light-switch we’re talking about that can be turned on at any time, as the Giants have found out the last couple of weeks. The Giants are considered a great team indeed, perhaps the best in the business and I would have agreed with that three weeks ago. However, things change quickly in this league, just ask the Cowboys, Redskins, Falcons, Dolphins, Seahawks and Eagles and right now the Giants are just not that same dominant team, not even close. Play: Carolina +3 +1.05 (Risking 2 units).
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