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Paul Leiner:Off to a nice start to the New Year with a last second winner with that Packers/Lions total. Today I am on USC. I have been saying it all year that the Big Ten was down and I am not changing that theme. I know Penn State finished the year strong but the Trojans have been the most dominant team in the nation down the stretch other than Bama. Lets hit this. Good luck.
Outback Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Iowa Hawkeyes (+) vs Florida Gators @ Raymond James Stadium in Tampa, FL @ 1 ET Monday - The Hawkeyes defense (17.9 points per game) is just as good as the Gators. In fact, Iowa allowed a total of just 23 points in their last 3 games of the regular season. Florida has allowed 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. While the Gators wrapped up the season with back to back losses, the Hawkeyes come into the bowl game riding the momentum of 3 straight wins and they scored 34 points per game in their final two games of the season. The Gators offense has been held to 16 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. Florida's injury list is also a much longer one than that of Iowa. The Gators are banged up and the Hawkeyes are hot at the right time. Iowa is on a 6-3 ATS run in games where the line is in a range of +3 to -3 and Florida is on a 2-4 ATS run in games where the line is anywhere from +3 to -3. Big value with the defensive dog in this one. 8* IOWA
Cotton Bowl - Rickenbach 8* Wisconsin Badgers (-) vs Western Michigan @ AT & T Stadium in Arlington, TX @ 1 ET Monday - Western Michigan is 13-0...and yet they've played no one. Seriously. With all due respect to the Broncos for not faltering and coming up with an amazing undefeated record, let's keep in mind that they play in the MAC which is one of the weakest conferences in CFB. The Broncos toughest games this season were as a 3 point dog versus Northwestern and a 3 point favorite with Illinois. They did dominate an Illini team that went on to go 3-9 on the season but they only snuck by the Wildcats by a single point and that Northwestern team is a far cry from the strength of the Big Ten team their facing Monday. Wisconsin is absolutely one of the best Big Ten teams and they have a tremendous defense that is in a foul mood after the way they failed to close the door on Penn State in the Big Ten Championship. That means a huge effort is coming from the Badgers D here and they often dominate teams (allowed 17 points or less in 10 of their first 12 games this season). The Badger offense can pound the ball on the ground and the Broncos D line is going to have trouble with the powerful Badgers O line. Wiscy ran the ball extremely well to wrap up the season. Western Michigan's D did allow 200+ rushing yards in 5 of their last 10 games despite facing a weak schedule. To put that in perspective, the Badgers D (even with facing a tough schedule) never allowed more than 185 rushing yards this entire season. Look for the Badgers to dominate this one in the trenches and that should lead to a victory by a double digit margin. 8* WISCONSIN
Bowl Game of the Year - Rickenbach 10* Top Play Penn State Nittany Lions (+) vs USC Trojans in Rose Bowl in Pasadena, CA @ 5 ET Monday - The Nittany Lions, as usual, are getting no respect. The Buckeyes got invited to the CFB Playoffs, instead of Penn State who beat them head to head and then also won the Big Ten Championship over Wisconsin. Regardless of the "ugly" win over Ohio State and the fact that they had some "luck" in the rally over the Badgers for the conference championship, this is a strong Nittany Lions team. They are confident, their defense is solid, their offense is surging, AND perhaps most important of all, they're playing with a chip on their shoulder here. They feel disrespected and are out to make a statement in this game by knocking off USC. The Trojans certainly got hot this season and I have plenty of respect for them. However, the Pac-12 has looked weaker and weaker the more the bowl performances have come in. Washington couldn't move the ball in their bowl game. Colorado got crushed by Oklahoma State in their bowl game. Washington State lost to Minnesota in their bowl game. Utah won their bowl game by only 2 points and Stanford won their bowl game by just 2 points. The point is that these are the types of teams that USC played all season long and yet now they're supposed to beat the Big Ten Champion Nittany Lions by more than a TD. I feel the Trojans are being over-rated here. They built up their stats with games against Pac-12 weaklings like UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, and Arizona State. Those teams had a combined record of 21-39 this season. In tougher games away from home, the Trojans lost at Utah and at Stanford and got absolutely crushed in a neutral site game versus Alabama. Does that sound like a team a that is a full TD better than the Big Ten champs? I say no way. Another thing that is hard to put a measurement on is momentum and confidence and moxie. Penn State has all 3 as they have rallied from huge deficits to win the biggest of games and they've won 9 straight games after a 2-2 start. As you can see, the Nittany Lions have momentum, confidence and they "never say never" as shown in the Big Ten Championship Game. Look for USC to drop to 0-5 in their last 5 neutral field games. As for the Nittany Lions, I look for them to improve to 5-1 SU in neutral site games but I'll definitely grab all the points I can get with this dangerous dog. They have averaged 328 passing yards per game in their last 4 games and look for RB Saquon Barkley to have a huge game as he is refreshed after the break. 10* PENN STATE
Bowl Total of the Month - Rickenbach 10* Top Play OVER the total in Oklahoma Sooners vs Auburn Tigers in Sugar Bowl in New Orleans, LA @ 8:30 ET Monday - While it may seem surprising to see a big O/U line posted on this game the odds makers know what they are doing here. Auburn's numbers on offense may have looked putrid at times late in the season but the key here is their health on offense has improved tremendously heading into this game. QB Sean White (shoulder) is ready to go after missing the Alabama game and RB Kamryn Pettway is also ready to go after playing against the Crimson Tide but being nowhere close to 100%. In other words, don't be surprised if the Tigers offense, in this bowl game, looks like it did during Auburn's 6-game winning streak earlier this season. In their 8 wins this season Auburn scored 38 points or more in 6 of the games! The Tigers, before the season-ending loss to Alabama, had gained 228 yards or more on the ground in 8 of their 10 prior games. On the season they have averaged 279 rushing yards per game and they'll be ready to go here. Oklahoma's defense is a weakness as they allowed huge yardage in all their games against quality offenses. However, I certainly respect the Sooners offense and they have averaged 44.7 points per game this season on 557.3 yards per game. Auburn's D is not going to be stop the dynamic offense of the Sooners! This game should turn into an absolute "track meet" on the turf at the Superdome and look for a huge shootout here. The over is 4-2 in Tigers games played on turf and the over is 9-2 in Sooners games played on turf. Those records are over the past 3 seasons combined and this again will be another "track meet" on turf with plenty of big plays. 10* OVER the total in the Sugar Bowl
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