1-2-17

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Veno
20'USC -7

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Sonyparley

Best Lock
NBA Bulls -1

Best Bet
NHL Colorado over 5.5
NBA Golden St over 230.5
NCAAB Iona -1

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Steve Merril

NBA

(3% play) NEW ORLEANS +9 (at Cleveland) - 7:05 pm ET #501

New Orleans is finally playing with a healthy roster. The Pelicans struggled mightily early on, but their play as of late has been fantastic. New Orleans comes into tonight’s game in Cleveland on a 4-game winning streak, and they’ve won five of their last six games overall. The Pelicans’ offense is in excellent current form. Over their last five games, the Pelicans have averaged 103.6 points per game on 45.3% shooting from the field and 40.5% shooting from three-point land. New Orleans has scored 100 points or more in eleven of their last twelve games overall.

Cleveland is off back-to-back big performances. The Cavaliers beat Boston 124-118 last Thursday night, and then they won in Charlotte 121-109 last Saturday night. Cleveland’s offense was terrific in both of those games as they shot 51.2% (86-for-168) from the field and 40.6% (28-for-69) from three-point land against the Celtics and Hornets. The Cavaliers also got to the free throw line 58 times in those two games. LeBron James, Kevin Love, and Kyrie Irving combined to score 85 points against Boston. James and Love combined to score 60 points against Charlotte. Irving missed that game with a hamstring injury, and he’s questionable to play this evening. This is a flat spot for Cleveland, so we’ll take the points with New Orleans in this game on Monday night.

Play PELICANS (+) as a 3% play

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Spartan
OKLAHOMA -3.0 (-110)

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Oskeim
Auburn (+3) (-110) over Oklahoma


Analysis: The Tigers are a 6* investment at +3 or more and become a 4* investment at +2 to +2.5 points. Please buy a 1/2-point to +3 if necessary.


Rotation Number: 281


Analysis: Oklahoma is one of the hottest teams in college football after finishing the season with nine consecutive wins (6-3 ATS), but wins over dysfunctional and inept teams like Kansas, Texas, Iowa State and Baylor are hardly impressive. My math model actually favors Auburn by 0.7 points and SEC bowl teams are 14-2 ATS versus Big 12 Conference opposition.

Meanwhile, Auburn is 7-2 ATS in its last nine games overall, 5-0 ATS in its last five non-conference affairs, 4-0 ATS in its last four games following a loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five bowl games. In contrast, the Sooners are a money-burning 0-5 ATS in their last five non-conference games, 0-6 ATS in their last six neutral site affairs and 3-7 ATS in their last ten bowl games. Oklahoma also suffered two double-digit losses in the same season for the first time since 1996.

I also don't like backing teams on prolonged win streaks entering postseason play as they are generally overpriced and, as a result, poor point spread propositions. Indeed, bowl favorites off three or more against-the-spread wins are a woeful 3-21 ATS versus foes that scored 21 or less points in their season-finale and allow less than 22.5 points per game on the season. Let's also note that Auburn is 4-0 ATS as a bowl underdog (or pick) and 3-0 SU versus Big 12 foes, whereas the Sooners are 1-5 ATS in bowl games versus teams hailing from the vaunted SEC.

Auburn was shutdown by Alabama in its season finale, scoring just twelve points in a 30-12 loss. However, SEC schools are 17-7 SU and 18-6 ATS in bowl games after failing to score more than thirteen points in their previous game. I expect the Tigers to score well over two touchdowns against a subpar Oklahoma defense that allowed 29.7 points and 440 total yards at 5.9 yards per play this season. The Sooners' porous stop unit also allowed 38.3 points and 512 yards per game at 6.6 yards per play on the road this season.

Oklahoma's defense is actually worse than it appears on the surface based upon the positive variance the Sooners experienced inside the red zone. But for the Sooners' extreme variance inside the red zone, their overall defensive statistics show that they should have yielded approximately three additional points per game this season.

Auburn will have a lot of success offensively in this game behind an attack that is 0.6 yards per play better than average (6.3 yards per play against teams that would combine to allow just 5.7 yards per play). However, I rate the Tigers' attack even better than that figure with a healthy Sean White under center. Before suffering a shoulder injury that forced him to miss 3+ games, White was 1.5 yards per pass attempt better than average (8.0 yards per pass play against teams that would combine to allow 6.5 yards per pass attempt).

Auburn will have its full compliment of offensive weapons as star running back Kamryn Pettway is finally healthy after missing three games during the regular season. Pettway compiled 1123 rushing yards at 6.1 yards per carry in nine games and joins White in the Sugar Bowl to complete one of the most potent offenses in the country. Oklahoma yielded 272 rushing yards at 6.8 yards per carry in its last three games so Pettway should put up career numbers Monday night.

Offensive guru (and head coach) Gus Malzahn will have the Tigers' running on all cylinders Monday night against a highly suspect Oklahoma stop unit. Auburn also possesses an excellent defense that is 0.8 yards per play better than average (5.2 yards per play to teams that would combine to average 6.0 yards per play). The Tigers' are 1.1 yards per rush play better than average (3.6 yards per rush attempt to teams that would combine to average 4.7 yards per pass attempt) and 0.8 yards per pass attempt better than average (6.1 yards per pass play to teams that would combine to average 6.9 yards per pass attempt).

The Tigers limited opponents to just 15.6 points per game this season, including 14.3 points per game on the road. Auburn's stop unit also avoids giving up big plays as evidenced by its 22.4 yards per point allowed in 2016 (22.7 yards per point allowed on the road). I'll gladly take the nation's 5th ranked defense plus the points against an Oklahoma squad that has admitted to being disappointed about not getting into the College Football Playoff. Oklahoma wide receiver Jeffery Mead said he and his teammates were "disappointed" in not making the playoffs.

Finally, Oklahoma continues to be distracted with its mismanagement of Joe Mixon, the star running back who was suspended for one year for assaulting a woman in a restaurant. A video of the incident was released publicly three weeks ago showing the scumbag punching a female student in 2014. The student suffered four fractured bones in her face and will have to deal with that incident for her entire life. Joe Mixon? He finished the 2016 regular season ranked second in the country in all-purpose yards and was a first-team All-Big 12 Conference selection.


Not surprisingly, a 5-star football recruit received preferential treatment from Norman, Oklahoma's justice system. Had Mixon been a walk-on with no scholarship or a dispensable backup, I'm sure Oklahoma's suits would have kicked him off the team. But, head coach Bob Stoops, athletic director Joe Castiglione and president David Boren put the football program's success ahead of protecting the safety of their students.


Stoops earned the nickname "Big Game Bob" for consistently failing to win the games that mattered the most. With Amelia Molitor's bloodied, battered and fractured body laying helplessly on the floor, Stoops and his allies in suits engaged in a two-year coverup that can only be described as disgusting. And morally bankrupt. And disgraceful. And utterly unacceptable. Stoops is no longer "Big Game Bob." He's complicit in the violent assault of Ms. Molitor and the disturbing actions that followed. "Bankrupt Bob" sounds much better.

Grab the points with the better team and invest with confidence.
RATING 6%

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SHARPEST EDGE SPORTS
NCAAF
Oklahoma Sooners -2 – 1 Unit

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Indian Cowboy

3-Unit Play. #515. Take Over 211 Phoenix vs. LA Clippers (Monday @ 10:35pm est)

Note we have a 4-Unit NCAAB Selection @ 4:30pm as we go for a fantastic 10 Straight College Ball Winners Today! We roll with the Over here as these two teams hook up in what should be a higher scoring affair than most realize. Phoenix likely is going to be a very good active underdog here on the road as they have massive revenge against the Clippers who also had a poor offensive shooting day in their last game scoring just 88 points against OKC. It was an ugly game where they were an underdog by 9 points only to lose 88-114. We like both these offenses to get back on track here with Phoenix pushing the pace and LA also to be glad they are home after losing all 3 games on the road and having lost their last 6 games in general.

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Raphael Esparza VSI

4 Unit Play. Take 512 Charlotte +1 over Chicago (8:05p.m., Monday January 1)
If there is one team that you might want to fade right now in the Eastern Conference is the Chicago Bulls. You have Rondo looking for a trade since he lost his starting job and a head coach that could be fired any day. Charlotte has won 3-straight meetings against the Bulls and tonight I see the road team continuing to make the Bulls fans suffer another home loss. Chicago is 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games and tonight we see this trend continuing to cash

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Bruce Marshall

Arkansas St -10

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Anthony Michael

Oklahoma -3

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Strike Point Sports
5-U NCAAB PLAY MONDAY
Siena +2.5

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Tony Finn 5% NBA suns/clippers over 211