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NFL Playoffs DAY ONE: Saturday 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole!
2017-01-07 20:15:00
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Saturday, Jan. 7th
8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT
DETROIT LIONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in asap. I played it at the line of 42.5. It has risen a half-point to 43 as this is being typed on Wednesday evening. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: Seattle 25.5 - Detroit 17.5. Our database models and simulations come up with numbers that are slightly higher. There’s enough of a difference to warrant a normal 3*** Play. Both teams closed the season with 2 straight ‘OVERS’ in their final two games… and by an average margin of MORE Than double digits (+11.3 points per game). First off, there’s an excellent chance that the Seahawks will score significantly higher than 25 points. If the situations were reversed, and Seattle was on the road… we might differ and go with the Under. That’s because Seattle averaged only 15.9 points in their road games this season. But this one is being played up in the Pacific Northwest. And the Seahawks have averaged almost two full TD’s MORE at home this season (28.4) than their road games. Meanwhile, Detroit has averaged 22.0 points per game on the year. And it sure doesn’t hurt us that the Lions finished the regular season with 55 and 63 combined points per game. That includes 36.0 points per game ALLOWED on defense.
As mentioned above, Detroit closed the regular season allowing 31 and 42 points in their final two games…
WILDCARD teams who allowed 31 > points in EACH of their last two games (LIONS) have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the history of our database (which goes back to 1989).
Detroit also ‘backed their way’ into the Playoffs, with losses in each if their last two games…
NFL Playoff teams off BACK-to-BACK SU losses (LIONS) haver gone 6-1 O/U in the last 5 years.
NFL Playoff teams of f3 or more SU losses in a row (LIONS) have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U since 2002.
In last Sunday Night’s final game of the season (at HOME), the Lions allowed their division rivals (Green Bay) to accumulate 153 rushing yards…
9-1 O/U since 2012 / 6-0 O/U last 4 years: All Playoff teams who allowed 150 > RUSHING yards at HOME in their last game (LIONS).
On the flips side, Seattle’s offense is in good groove heading into the post-season. They finished the year with 25 pts… 31 pts… and 24 pts…
9-1 O/U since 2007: All NFL Playoff favorites who scored 24 < points in EACH of their last three games (SEAHAWKS) when the OU line is < 48 points.
The Seahawks are one of the BIG favorites in this opening weekend of Wildcard action. At last look, Seattle was a favorite of -8 points in this game.
13-3-1 O/U since 2006: All NFL Playoff BIG non-division favorites of -7 or MORE points (SEAHAWKS) when the OU line is in the range of > 39 points and < 47 points.
Sealing the deal is Seattle’s recent tendency of a high percentage of OVERS in post-season play. The SEAHAWKS have gone 11-3-1 O/U in ALL Playoffs games since the 2007 season. That includes 5-1 O/U in the last three years… and 6-1 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 44 points.
NFL Playoffs DAY ONE: Saturday 3*** OVER / UNDER Winner from King Creole!
2017-01-07 20:15:00
Plays rated 2 thru 5 stars
Saturday, Jan. 7th
8:15pm ET / 5:15pm PT
DETROIT LIONS @ SEATTLE SEAHAWKS
3*** Play on: OVER THE TOTAL
Get your play in asap. I played it at the line of 42.5. It has risen a half-point to 43 as this is being typed on Wednesday evening. Based on the pointspread and OU line, the predicted final score in this game is: Seattle 25.5 - Detroit 17.5. Our database models and simulations come up with numbers that are slightly higher. There’s enough of a difference to warrant a normal 3*** Play. Both teams closed the season with 2 straight ‘OVERS’ in their final two games… and by an average margin of MORE Than double digits (+11.3 points per game). First off, there’s an excellent chance that the Seahawks will score significantly higher than 25 points. If the situations were reversed, and Seattle was on the road… we might differ and go with the Under. That’s because Seattle averaged only 15.9 points in their road games this season. But this one is being played up in the Pacific Northwest. And the Seahawks have averaged almost two full TD’s MORE at home this season (28.4) than their road games. Meanwhile, Detroit has averaged 22.0 points per game on the year. And it sure doesn’t hurt us that the Lions finished the regular season with 55 and 63 combined points per game. That includes 36.0 points per game ALLOWED on defense.
As mentioned above, Detroit closed the regular season allowing 31 and 42 points in their final two games…
WILDCARD teams who allowed 31 > points in EACH of their last two games (LIONS) have gone a PERFECT 5-0 O/U in the history of our database (which goes back to 1989).
Detroit also ‘backed their way’ into the Playoffs, with losses in each if their last two games…
NFL Playoff teams off BACK-to-BACK SU losses (LIONS) haver gone 6-1 O/U in the last 5 years.
NFL Playoff teams of f3 or more SU losses in a row (LIONS) have gone a PERFECT 4-0 O/U since 2002.
In last Sunday Night’s final game of the season (at HOME), the Lions allowed their division rivals (Green Bay) to accumulate 153 rushing yards…
9-1 O/U since 2012 / 6-0 O/U last 4 years: All Playoff teams who allowed 150 > RUSHING yards at HOME in their last game (LIONS).
On the flips side, Seattle’s offense is in good groove heading into the post-season. They finished the year with 25 pts… 31 pts… and 24 pts…
9-1 O/U since 2007: All NFL Playoff favorites who scored 24 < points in EACH of their last three games (SEAHAWKS) when the OU line is < 48 points.
The Seahawks are one of the BIG favorites in this opening weekend of Wildcard action. At last look, Seattle was a favorite of -8 points in this game.
13-3-1 O/U since 2006: All NFL Playoff BIG non-division favorites of -7 or MORE points (SEAHAWKS) when the OU line is in the range of > 39 points and < 47 points.
Sealing the deal is Seattle’s recent tendency of a high percentage of OVERS in post-season play. The SEAHAWKS have gone 11-3-1 O/U in ALL Playoffs games since the 2007 season. That includes 5-1 O/U in the last three years… and 6-1 O/U when the OU line is LESS than (<) 44 points.
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