12-22-08

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

Brian Edwards

Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Chicago -4

I'm on my guaranteed play for the total a lot heavier (amount-wise) than this wager on the side. Nevertheless, I do recommend getting some action on the Bears, who have won five of their last six home games. Four of those wins have come by four points or more which is what we're laying here. Green Bay mailed it in weeks ago, so let's fade 'em in this spot.


Green Bay at Chicago
Play: Over 40

The 'over' has hit at a money-making 5-2 clip for Chicago in its home games. The 'over' has also been a money maker for the Packers, posting an 8-5-1 overall record and a 4-2-1 mark in their road games. The 'over' is 2-1 in the last three head-to-head meetings between these long-time rivals as they have combined for at least 40 points in all three of those games. Both teams are accustomed to the cold-weather conditions. Give me the 'over.'

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

seabass

50* gb
20* nj nets
20* wake
20* nc st
30* van under 5.5

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

Seabass 100 Steam: Troy CBB

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

PICK: Green Bay Packers
Your pick will be graded at: 4.5 betED
EXPERT: Stephen Nover
TITLE: Game of the Year
REASON FOR PICK: Some non-playoff teams are dead. You don't want to touch them. The Green Bay Packers aren't one of those clubs even though their record is 5-9.

No, the Packers aren't going to the playoffs. That's obviously a huge disappointment for a team that came within an overtime of reaching the Super Bowl last year.

But the Packers will play hard in this Monday night game against their long-time division rival the Chicago Bears. This is Green Bay's Super Bowl game.

The Packers aren't nearly as good as last season. Injuries, lack of veteran leadership and bad breaks have done them in. However, they aren't nearly as bad as their record may indicate.

Green Bay actually has outscored its opponents by 32 points. Opponents have gained just 14 more yards than the Packers and only two more first downs.

Green Bay has been in every game. The Packers beat Indianapolis and should have defeated Tennessee (losing in overtime) and Carolina. Green Bay's record is misleading because it has lost six games by four points or fewer.

The Packers destroyed the Bears, 37-3, when they met five weeks ago. The Bears are just mediocre.

Quarterback Kyle Orton hasn't been the same since injuring his right ankle. His quarterback rating was 90.8 before the injury. It is 63.4 in the five games since coming back. His mobility also has been hampered.

In addition, star rookie running back Matt Forte may be limited because of a toe injury.

The Bears will have trouble throwing on a tough Packers secondary featuring All-Pros Charles Woodson and Nick Collins. The flip side is the Bears won't be able to stop Green Bay's passing attack. They couldn't handle Green Bay's excellent receivers during the first meeting and nothing has changed.

The Packers certainly wouldn't be bothered by bad weather. In fact, bad weather is usually a plus for a 'dog getting more than a field goal. Green Bay loves to play at Solider Field.

The Packers are 12-2 in their last 14 visits to Chicago, including 10-4 against the spread.

This is a 10-star rating, my highest of the season. I'm playing this in mid-week while there are still a few plus 4 1/2's out. At plus 4, the Packers would hold a nine-star rating. The Packers are a great play at any price because I expect them to win straight-up.

I've made a huge play on Green Bay with the points and on the money-line.

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

ATS Lock Club
4 Bears -4
4 Utah St. -3.5
3 Bowling Green -8.5

ATS Financial Package
3 Over 40 Bears/Packers
3 Seton Hall
3 Magic

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

indiancowboy


4 Unit Play. #726. Take East Carolina Pirates +9 over Wake Forest. (Saturday @ 7pm est). This is our Underdog GOW.



7-1 NFL Run and 3-0 NFL Week.



Yesterday: 3-2



Loyola Maryland +6.5 Over UC Davis (Outright Winner)

Tennessee Titans +2 over Steelers (Outright Winner)

Giants -3 over Panthers (Winner)

Southern Miss/Troy State: (Loss)

Mavs/Wizards Over (Loss)



Every day is an opportunity for us to cash and it's fun to make a statement on what the title and premise of each of our games is. After all, we only make one such play in both CBB and NBA so there is thought that goes into each and consequently, we call the a play with a particular theme. Such is the case here with our Underdog GOW which comes off the heels of Loyola Maryland Winning Outright at UC-Davis. Look, I love Underdogs and that is where I have made my mark and that includes the Titans over the Steelers Outright this weekend as we are on a 7-1 NFL Run. There is a lot that goes into this game from the fact that East Carolina is a very good team that is ranked in the top 100 that comes off a loss to NC State. Remember, East Carolina should have covered that game but failed to do so as they went ice cold on the road in the last several minutes. Well, they play another NC team today and that is in Wake and in particular, they play them in their house catching 9 points at that. Heck, this is a game that East Carolina can certainly win outright. Why can I make such a bold statement such as that? Well, keep in mind that East Carolina is ranked higher than Richmond. Wake beat Richmond on the road by 7 and Richmond is nowhere near talented as East Carolina is who has defeated the likes of top 70 VCU at home in overtime and lost to top 90 George Mason at home by 6 points. Remember, I faded Wake at Richmond at +8 with the Spiders as a home dog as a top 120 team. Why would I not take East Carolina at home +9 as the better team, as a home dog, coming off a loss to another ACC team just in their previous game? How about the fact that in both of East Carolina's losses they have come by margins of 6 at home to George Mason and 11 on the road to NC State. This is game once again that East Carolina can hang very tough at home as if Wake thought playing at the Richmond Spiders was tough, they will go into a house that is much tougher to play and with far more talent on the floor. Combine that with the fact that East Carolina comes off a tough loss to another ACC Rival in NC State on the road, I look for the Pirates to play very tough here today. East Carolina is 6-0 at home, Wake is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 road games and East Carolina is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games against winning teams as they get up for the better teams at home and likely cover if not win straight up.


NBA (POD): 4 Unit Play. Take Over 197.5 between Houston Rockets @ New Jersey Nets (Monday @ 7:35pm est). We have several things working in our favor here. For starters, over 69% of the public are riding Houston here after their recent win at Minnesota as they covered the spread winning by 7 and the Nets home loss to the Heat. Keep in mind that the Nets were coming off a big win over the Mavs at home which was a big game for Devin Harris and company based on the recent trades these two teams just had. Of course, Devin Harris showed up and outshined kid by scoring 40+ points and having 13 assists in the process. As per this game, note that NJ comes off that tough loss and look to bounce-back here. The Nets have had no problem scoring points in particular when they have motivation coming off a previous loss. Also, when the Rockets get taken to the edge early and are in a competitive game, games go over. The last four of five have been such the case with the Rockets as for example the game against the Grizzlies in which they were an active dog went over, the game against the Twolves who for all intense purposes were an active dog at home went over, they were at GS where the game sailed over and of course, they were at Denver in an outright loss and that game too sailed over as the Nuggs were great competition that night. In that same spirit, the Nets will be great competitors tonight coming off such a loss. I'm not saying to bet against the Rockets here, but let's bet on the Nets to make this game competitive as the push this total over and I wouldn't be a bit surprised to see an outright win for the Nets, but more importantly, we expect to see an over. Remember, we want 25 points in each quarter per team as that is the magic number to keep pace for the 200 mark. The over is 4-0 for the Rockets when they are favored by this margin on the road and the over is 7-3 for the Nets following an ATS loss

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

Special K

20* Golden St

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

Special K 20* NBA

GS +12.5

College

Indiana -1.5

Free pick

marquette -1

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

vegas-runner | NFL Total Triple-Dime Bet
132 CHI / 131 GBP Under 41.0 Sportsbetting.com
Analysis:
*** NFL MNF 3* BEST BET of the DAY ***



Mon, 12/22/08 - 8:35 PMvegas-runner | NFL Side Double-Dime Bet
131 GBP 4.5 (-110) Bodog vs 132 CHI
Analysis: ** NFL MNF 2* WAGER

(BUY the 1/2 to UNDER 41...If we have to...see below)



Although it's still extremely early, I didn't want to wait to get the Bet out, because the only question that remained, is what is the Best Number that we will be able to go UNDER...



At the moment, the majority of shops are using 40 and 40.5...and with 41 being such a KEY TOTAL in the NFL...we will have no problem laying the 10 cents more if we have to in order to get it...

Although because ALL of the Books that I spoke to when I made my rounds through the Sportsbooks here in town...along with EVERY local that I work with...have ALL been getting a lot of work on the OVER...In fact, it is by far the most 1 sided wager that they are booking this evening...And that is just fine by us, because we feel that there is a lot of Value in the UNDER Tonight, and the better the number, the better the chance of Cashing...



So we are going to wait it out and see if maybe we can even DO BETTER because when the books made this significant of a move on the SNF Total...they ended up getting Burned as the Betting Public, again took the Over and got a much better number than they should have...Since the Outfits were sitting it out and instead taking a position on the Side...

That tells me that we just may see them go ahead and adjust the Total more to represent the actual Money Being Bet....Rather than where they feel it should be, to avoid getting hit by the "sharps"...who are obviously always looking for reasons to go Under...knowing you are already getting a few points of an edge based on the shading towards the Over....which has to be done since the Betting Public prefers it greatly, when compared to the Under...



At 41, it has reached what I had set for my "Fair Line"...Thinking that since this is a MNF Match-Up, and the Trend has supported the Over this Year...then it's justified for the Oddsmakers to send it out to the Books slightly higher than what it should be...And I made my "True Line" 38...So you can see why I feel that we are really getting our money in, while getting the best of it...by going UNDER...I just wished that the weather this past weekend hadn't forced the adjustment from the Opening Line of as high as 44...



So let's go ahead and see if we can make it #6 in a Row for 3* BEST BET Winners...and improve on our current "13-2" run on 3*s....By making the UNDER ??? (the best possible number prior to kick-off) our NFL MNF 3* BEST BET...VR

[Mr. IWS]

Re: 12-22-08

atslocks.com

Packers @ Bears -4: Bears -4 (10 unit play)

Magic/Warriors Over/Under 218: Over 218 (5 unit play)

Western Michigan +8.5 (5 unit play)