1-22-17

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Raphael Esparza (VSI)
*SUN 8U NFL PLAYOFF GOTY*
Pittsburgh and New England under 50.5

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ADVANCED SPORTS INVESTMENTS
January 20TH


NFL (REGULAR SEASON)
PATRICK (25-15 +14.30)
GB PACKERS +5.5 ATL FALCONS (3pm)
JEFF (24-31 -17.88)
GB PACKERS / ATL FALCONS UNDER 60.5 (3pm)
LARRY (19-27 -20.90)
NE PATRIOTS -6 PIT STEELERS (640pm)

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Spartan
3* Green Bay
2* Pitt

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Prediction Machine
NFL Picks - Conference Championships
Last Updated: 1/18/2017
2
If you are getting a different line than our projection, simply access the Play Analyzer, which allows you to see picks at current consensus lines or input your own against-the-spread and over/under lines. Sign up for weekly Play Analyzer email alerts on Sunday mornings here. Also, to know who we project to be OUT of each game, check out our injuries information. The Play Value ($) assumes a "normal" $50 play.

AGAINST THE SPREAD PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Pick Opp Line Margin Pick% $ Calc
311 3:05 PM GB Lock of the Week @ ATL 5 -2.6 55.2 $30
313 6:40 PM PIT @ NE 6 -4.3 54.1 $18

STRAIGHT-UP PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Rot Time (ET) Favorite Opp Points For Points Against Win%
314 6:40 PM @ NE PIT 28.8 24.5 60.6
312 3:05 PM @ ATL GB 32.8 30.3 55.7

OVER/UNDER PICKS (Based on Games Played 50,000 times) Print Table
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Line Total Points Pick Pick% $ Calc
314 6:40 PM PIT @ NE 50.5 53.2 Over 54.1 $18
312 3:05 PM GB @ ATL 60 63.1 Over 53.8 $15

ADDITIONAL GAME INFORMATION
Home Rot Time (ET) Matchup Boxscore Breakdown Broadcast Analyze Live
312 3:05 PM GB @ ATL Boxscore Breakdown FOX FOX Analyze Live
314 6:40 PM PIT @ NE Boxscore Breakdown NBC NBC Analyze Live

In the picks above, Margin, Points For, Points Against and Total Points are averages from 50,000 games played. The Win% ATS is the percentage of games in which the team picked covers the noted spread. Similarly, the Pick% in the Over/Under table is the percentage of time that the Over or Under pick covers the total. These values represent the Predictalator's confidence in the pick and are used in the Play Value Key and Calculator. With RL and O/U plays assumed to be -110, anything less than 52.38% confidence is not considered to be a worthwhile pick. To alter odds or to evaluate money-line plays, click on "Calc" and adjust the Odds in the Play Value Calculator. Clicking on the "Play" button will allow you to run that game through the Customizable Predictalator. An "Upset Watch" icon will appear next to games where we believe the underdog is more like than not to win outright. Picks will be updated as needed due to injury (up to one hour before game time).


PM update
My local moved Atlanta to -6, So I replayed the game and now GB is a normal Play at 57.4%

Analyzer Results
Rot Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick%
Value Calc
311 1/22 3:05 PM GB GB @ ATL 6Expand -110 -110 57.4Trending In Favor of Pick $53
313 1/22 6:40 PM PIT PIT @ NE 6Expand -110 -110 54.0 $17
313 1/22 6:40 PM Over PIT @ NE 50.5Expand -110 -110 53.8 $15
311 1/22 3:05 PM Over GB @ ATL 61Expand -110 -110 52.5Trending Against Pick $1

So if I buy 1 point and replay at +7 here's the replay. Win % goes up to 59.7%, but the play amount gets reduced to $27 per a $50 bet because of the extra juice.

Play Analyzer Results
Rot Date Time (ET) Pick Matchup Line H/O Odds A/U Odds Pick% Play
Value Calc
311 1/22 3:05 PM GB GB @ ATL 7Expand -110 -135 59.7Trending In Favor of Pick $27
313 1/22 6:40 PM PIT PIT @ NE 6Expand -110 -110 54.0 $17
313 1/22 6:40 PM Over PIT @ NE 50.5Expand -110 -110 53.8 $15
311 1/22 3:05 PM Over GB @ ATL 61Expand -110 -110 52.5Trending Against Pick $1

[Can'tPickAWinner]

Marc Lawrence 5* NFL Playoff Game Of The Year! -

GREEN BAY

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Norm Hitzges
January 20-23, 2017
Here are your Picks of the Pole for the NFL Conference Championship games;


Playoff record last week: 9-0 (!!!)....Playoffs so far: 12-3

TRIPLE PLAY: Pittsburgh +6 New England

DOUBLE PLAY: Atlanta -4 1/2 Green Bay

SINGLE PLAY: Pitt---NE OVER 50 1/2

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Dominic Brando

2u Pitt +7/-135
2u Atl ml/-200

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Jason Sharpe

6 Unit Play Take #313 Pittsburgh +6 over New England (6:40pm est)
3 Unit Play Take #311 'over' 60.5 Green Bay/Atlanta (3:05pm est)

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Indian Cowboy

6-Unit Play. #311. Take Under 61 Atlanta Falcons vs. Green Bay Packers (3:05pm est)
4-Unit Play. #313. Take Over 50.5 New England vs. Pittsburgh (6:40pm est)

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Rickenbach NFL Conference Championship Sunday (2 picks):

NFL Playoff Total of the Year - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play OVER the total in Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers @ 3:05 ET - Huge number (60) posted as the total on this game but it is absolutely justified. The Packers have won 8 straight games and have averaged 35 points per game in their last 6 games. The Falcons have won 5 straight games and have averaged 38 points per game. The funny thing about those numbers is the fact that a 38-35 type game would not be a surprise at all. Atlanta's Matt Ryan and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers are certainly two of the best QBs in the league and also two of the hottest. I don't see the Falcons as being able to slow down the Packers as Atlanta's pass defense has been exploited in a number of games this season. As for Green Bay, they are so banged up on defense that they aren't going to be able to stop Ryan and Company in this one. Of course another real positive for the over is the fact this game is being played indoors on the fast turf in Atlanta. The Falcons have completed 80 of 106 passes in their last 3 games. The Packers are are well known for the fact that they have allowed ridiculously high completion rates this season. Of course the key for Green Bay staying in this game is their own offensive production and they throw much more than they run (another significant positive for an over). All 11 games that Atlanta has played on turf this season (including their 9 home games) have gone over the total - a perfect 11-0 mark. The over is 7-2 in Packers road games this season. Even though these teams each have some decent defensive numbers in recent weeks, those came against inferior competition and neither defense is built well enough (nor is healthy enough) to stop what they're going to be facing on Sunday. Look for VERY few punts in this one as both teams move the ball quickly up and down in the field in a track meet. 10* OVER the total in Atlanta Sunday afternoon

PA Insider Top Play - Rickenbach NFL 10* Top Play Pittsburgh Steelers (+) @ New England Patriots @ 6:40 ET Sunday - New England knocked off Pittsburgh earlier this season but the Steelers were without QB Ben Roethlisberger in that game. I know it is difficult to knock the Patriots but, one thing I will say is that they sure got a fortunate match-up last week. The only reason Houston was in New England is because Oakland fell apart once they lost their QB. That is what allowed a Texas team with a nightmare (Osweiler) at QB to venture up to Foxboro. Finally, this week, New England will be tested and it could be tough on them as they have had so many easy match-ups since Tom Brady returned early this season after his 4-game suspension. The Pats rarely have been challenged and arguably, their toughest match-ups did not end up impressing. The Patriots, in addition to facing the Steelers at Pittsburgh when Roethlisberger was on the shelf, had only two other truly tough games that were home games this season. In those, they lost to Seattle and they snuck by Baltimore by 7 points as a 6 point favorite. As usual, the Patriots are a public team and very few people will want to bet against Brady and coach Belichick in Foxboro in January. However, if any team can knock them off there, it is this Steelers team and they are healthy again at the skill positions and come into this game having won 9 straight games! Pittsburgh's defense has been phenomenal in their last 6 road games as they've allowed 310 yards or less in all 6 games. Of course the Steelers want revenge badly against the "mighty Pats" who always seem to find their way to the top and that only intensifies the defensive effort here. Keep in mind too that New England was okay without Rob Gronkowski for getting past a team like the Texans but facing the Steelers is a much tougher task! Pittsburgh has faced the tougher strength of schedule this season and the Patriots are in for a war in this one. I do expect the Steelers to win this one outright but I will, of course, grab all the available points as that is where the huge value is in this one, the generous points. 10* PITTSBURGH STEELERS plus the points Sunday evening

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Joe Gavazzi

Packers + 6
NE -6

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Football Crusher
Pittsburgh Steelers +6 over New England Patriots
(System Record: 39-4, won last game)
Overall Record: 39-51-1

Rest of the Plays
none

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Hockey Crusher
New York Islanders + Los Angeles Kings UNDER 5.5 (pending)
Vancouver Canucks + Chicago Blackhawks OVER 5
(System Record: 38-3, lost last game)
Overall Record: 38-46-11

Rest of the Plays
none

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Basketball Crusher
Northwestern +2 over Ohio State
(System Record: 40-2, lost last 2 games)
Overall Record: 40-47-1

Rest of the Plays
La Salle +7.5 over VCU
Wright State +4 over Oakland
George Mason +6 over Richmond

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Soccer Crusher
Arsenal + Burnley UNDER 3.5
This match happening in England
(System Record: 1087-33, won last 2 games)
Overall Record: 1087-827-175